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Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

Cheshire Freeze

By Cheshire Freeze
in Spring Weather Discussion

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RCT Apprentice

RCT

Posted
  • Location: Perranporth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Ice, Thunderstorms and Heatwaves
  • Location: Perranporth
Posted

We will just have to wait and see what happens! Posted Image

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

I didn't realize the models went out that far lol....

 

 

9 Months season model (CFS), there are even climate models that go out 10 years!!! but for some reason when climatologists are saying global  temperatures are going to rise as as result of those models outputs and you don't subscribe then you are a 'flat earther', yet if a seasonal model says cold winter, then you are not allowed to subscribe.

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

A further south version of Jan 87 / feb 91

Posted Image

 

 

That's the closest one I'v seen yet to how Feb 2014 will be.

 

 

BFTP

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Author
Posted

That's the closest one I'v seen yet to how Feb 2014 will be.

 

 

BFTP

 

I read a blog by Roger J Smith on Gavin P's page a month or so back. He seemed quite confident of a +NAO winter....unless his thoughts have changed since then. I remember you and Roger releasing an LRF so wondered what your thoughts are on this?

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stewfox Accomplished

stewfox

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
Posted

Posted Image

 

 

I see the temps in the Shetland Islands remain the same as the summer ie 9c They just miss out on the mega cold Posted Image

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

I see the temps in the Shetland Islands remain the same as the summer ie 9c They just miss out on the mega cold Posted Image

 

Bloody hell, suprising they end up that high, even with a long sea track - still December!

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted (edited)

A bit off topic.... If you like the cold Im watching atm (Driven to Extremes) on itv4 it started at 8pm so watch it on itv4+1 (MY GODPosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image )

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

That's the closest one I'v seen yet to how Feb 2014 will be.

 

 

BFTP

 

You think its gonna be  a stonker then, are you doing a forecast or helping RJS with his, what does he think so far?

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted

You think its gonna be  a stonker then, are you doing a forecast or helping RJS with his, what does he think so far?

 

He thinks we're in for a mild Winter this year according to his early forecast last month.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

The first cold charts are being posted on the model thread, a GFS control run at T384, going to be a long winter Posted Image

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

Lets hope we get some of these at T96 to convince him otherwise then.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Gaz1985 Community Regular

Gaz1985

Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
Posted (edited)

I see the temps in the Shetland Islands remain the same as the summer ie 9c They just miss out on the mega cold Posted Image

 

I think Shetland has the worst climate in the UK, hardly ever warm at all. It's like a jacket or coat all year round.

Edited by Gaz1985
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

The first cold charts are being posted on the model thread, a GFS control run at T384, going to be a long winter Posted Image

 

wouldnt want it, here at 104m asl, 12th 0ct will be miserable 9C and rain!!

 

cold fan me of course but do not want cold setups until mid Nov, I do not live on a hill in Scotland

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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted

You think its gonna be  a stonker then, are you doing a forecast or helping RJS with his, what does he think so far?

I read it as BFTP having a joke as it looks like one of the best charts he has seen for Feb yet? May be wrong though lol 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

I read it as BFTP having a joke as it looks like one of the best charts he has seen for Feb yet? May be wrong though lol 

Correct.....

 

Re what RJS has said I haven't read or spoke to him, but on the basis of it being +NAO then looking at other factors is it a bad call? Ice recovery is huge in the arctic and its been cold up there.  Also does it mean a mild winter with a +ve NAO?  Look at Jan 84 as an example.  I have my early reservations re extensive northern blocking covering Greenland, but not for cold as the jetstream is and has shifted south and thus am not too concerned at this early stage.

 

BFTP

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

Ice recovery is large when compared to 2012, however in the context of other years such as 2010 it is not, displaying a similar minimum.

Ice was low in 2011 and we had a crap winter, the link is tenuous to be honest given current research.

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UV-RAY Seasoned

UV-RAY

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley
Posted

Ice recovery is large when compared to 2012, however in the context of other years such as 2010 it is not, displaying a similar minimum. Ice was low in 2011 and we had a crap winter, the link is tenuous to be honest given current research.

Completely agree RD, any correlation between summer ice and winter in the UK is non existent IMO. One only as to go through past records too see there is no correlation as we've endured both cold and mild winters when ice had been far more extensive in summer.
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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

Sorry if this has been asked already, but with the current hurricane season being relatively quiet, are there any links to effects further down the line for the UK?

 

For example, with a quieter Atlantic, could this aid the development of blocking patterns in the medium-long term towards early Winter? (Especially if it stays quieter than normal towards the end of the season?) 

Edited by Chris K
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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Sorry if this has been asked already, but with the current hurricane season being relatively quiet, are there any links to effects further down the line for the UK?

 

For example, with a quieter Atlantic, could this aid the development of blocking patterns in the medium-long term towards early Winter? (Especially if it stays quieter than normal towards the end of the season?) 

 

To me this is an important point re quieter hurricane season.  La Nina pattern and I think a -ve PDO lead to this and this suggest to me that nino set up is under control of the pertubation cycle and -ve PDO phase and classic cyclogenesis/GIN corridor will not be the set up even with a +ve NAO.  Reason being is jetstream is forced south, so chances are abound for cold phases. I certainly don't see a dreaded 88/89 pattern developing.....but nothing can be totally omitted and an 11/12 winter is entirely plausible.

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Sorry if this has been asked already, but with the current hurricane season being relatively quiet, are there any links to effects further down the line for the UK? For example, with a quieter Atlantic, could this aid the development of blocking patterns in the medium-long term towards early Winter? (Especially if it stays quieter than normal towards the end of the season?)

Technically a low ACE value correlates with a stronger vortex and low ozone production. Currently though there's a lot of Ozone for some reason though.
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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

Technically a low ACE value correlates with a stronger vortex and low ozone production. Currently though there's a lot of Ozone for some reason though.

 

i'm sure I heard somewhere that the reason for so much ozone is some knock on effect from the southern hemisphere SSW in there winter but don't quote me on that I might be wrong

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