Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Cheshire Freeze]

Holy cheesebiscuits, frankly seeing an average maximum temperature of 0C for an entire month would be borderline insane. I have to admit I think this would be going too far 

 

Too far? Never! Bring it on I say!

I did watch and listen all through.

Very interesting about the +ve sea temperatures off the Alaska area but he seemed to rather 'make up' the warm-cold-warm area east of the states to me? There is a good deal of +ve anomlies off the east coast of America it seemed to me thus any surface high IF it stayed that way would suggest not Greenland but further south. But its a bit nit picking really. He has obviously put a lot of work into this first video.

 

He did say the tripole wasn't there yet. He was just showing what the tripole idea is and saying he possibly expects it to re-emerge (which it looks like it is beginning to do so already).

[Cheshire Freeze]

All talk of that Feb anomaly but January aint bad either.....

 

 

 

[johnholmes]

Too far? Never! Bring it on I say!

 

He did say the tripole wasn't there yet. He was just showing what the tripole idea is and saying he possibly expects it to re-emerge (which it looks like it is beginning to do so already).

 

 

my apologies on that then-the joy of being deaf and mis hearing!

[Jax]

Holy cheesebiscuits, frankly seeing an average maximum temperature of 0C for an entire month would be borderline insane. I have to admit I think this would be going too far 

I agree, a few hours maybe, but a whole month!

[feb1991blizzard]

Too far? Never! Bring it on I say!

 

He did say the tripole wasn't there yet. He was just showing what the tripole idea is and saying he possibly expects it to re-emerge (which it looks like it is beginning to do so already).

 

Too far? Never! Bring it on I say!

 

He did say the tripole wasn't there yet. He was just showing what the tripole idea is and saying he possibly expects it to re-emerge (which it looks like it is beginning to do so already).

 

Spot on.

[Summer Sun]

CFS once again showing average or below average rainfall for a lot of places this winter if this does indeed happen drought orders in 2014 would be extremely possible given the dry summer and start to Autumn

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

CFS once again showing average or below average rainfall for a lot of places this winter if this does indeed happen drought orders in 2014 would be extremely possible given the dry summer and start to Autumn

 

 

Well that would depend on whether next spring/summer turned out to be a washout As we saw in 2012, summer rainfall (if persistent and heavy enough) can preclude the need for drought restrictions.

Edited September 15, 2013 by CreweCold

[Gavin Hannah]

I know its still too early, but that niggly voice in the back of my head says that PRELIMINARY indicators are pointing to another cold winter.  

[Summer Sun]

Well that would depend on whether next spring/summer turned out to be a washout As we saw in 2012, summer rainfall (if persistent and heavy enough) can preclude the need for drought restrictions.

 

At this stage March and April see an increase in rain before in goes low again in May

 

For me February still looks the coldest month of winter this has been a trend for a while now with December looking fairly average maybe slightly above for some

 

 

February

 

 

Better March

 

Edited September 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[feb1991blizzard]

At this stage March and April see an increase in rain before in goes low again in May

 

For me February still looks the coldest month of winter this has been a trend for a while now with December looking fairly average maybe slightly above for some

 

 

February

 

 

Better March

 

 

 

Stonker February!!!

[Chris K]

As soon as the MET O say we are going to have cool wet summers for the next 10 years the opposite happens we have the warmest summer in 6 years

 

Just to try put this one to bed... there is a difference between saying that the Met Office said we ARE going to get a decade of wet Summers to what they actually said...

 

Professor Stephen Belcher, Head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, and Dr James Screen, a NERC Research Fellow at the University of Exeter, were careful in their messaging about the AMO.

They talked about initial research which suggests this cycle, which can last for 10-20 years, can ‘load the dice’ to mean we may see a higher frequency of wetter than average summers before switching to its opposite phase, where we may see the opposite effect.

Currently, they said, it appears we are well into the ‘wet’ phase of this cycle, so it may continue to have an influence for a few more years to come.

That does not mean every summer will be a ‘washout’ for the next decade and shouldn’t be taken as a deterministic forecast for what we will see in the years to come.

 

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/06/19/media-coverage-on-wet-summers-for-a-decade/

[Don]

Well this is a tasty Feb CFS anomaly:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have many words for those charts but the main word from me is BANK!!

[johnholmes]

Just to try put this one to bed... there is a difference between saying that the Met Office said we ARE going to get a decade of wet Summers to what they actually said...

 

Professor Stephen Belcher, Head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, and Dr James Screen, a NERC Research Fellow at the University of Exeter, were careful in their messaging about the AMO.

They talked about initial research which suggests this cycle, which can last for 10-20 years, can ‘load the dice’ to mean we may see a higher frequency of wetter than average summers before switching to its opposite phase, where we may see the opposite effect.

Currently, they said, it appears we are well into the ‘wet’ phase of this cycle, so it may continue to have an influence for a few more years to come.

That does not mean every summer will be a ‘washout’ for the next decade and shouldn’t be taken as a deterministic forecast for what we will see in the years to come.

 

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/06/19/media-coverage-on-wet-summers-for-a-decade/

 

 

ah but the truth gets in the way of a good story Chris

this link to the video I think

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/06/19/media-coverage-on-wet-summers-for-a-decade/

 

well worth listening to what he said

Edited September 15, 2013 by johnholmes

[Summer Sun]

CFS has flipped this afternoon to its less cold side

 

 

Blocking shifts to the east In January not the first time CFS has had this

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

CFS has flipped this afternoon to its less cold side

 

 

Blocking shifts to the east In January not the first time CFS has had this

 

 

 

Yep, I think Atlantic undercutters could be on the agenda. Something Tamara alluded to in the MOD thread earlier.

Edited September 15, 2013 by CreweCold

[Gaz1985]

CFS has flipped this afternoon to its less cold side

 

 

Blocking shifts to the east In January not the first time CFS has had this

 

 

 

Let's hope northern blocking gets eradicated altogether this Winter 

[mcweather]

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/researchhighlights/SSW/

 

 

Superb article on last Januarys strat warming. Well worth a read.

[Methuselah]

Let's hope northern blocking gets eradicated altogether this Winter 

We can rely on one thing, no matter what: by the time we get to Nov 30, the CFS will have predicted every conceivable type of winter...

[Gael_Force]

I'm reading through this thread and scratching my head regarding the comments accompanying the updated CFS charts.

 

Please use the save facility that Meteociel provide for you - it is the little floppy disc symbol at the top right above the chart - click on it and a separate box opens with the links for use in forums etc.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Let's hope northern blocking gets eradicated altogether this Winter 

 

 

Lets hope we get another 1947, lets hope this block is actually buried an a 40ft snowdrift.

[Don]

Lol, yes my main word to describe this afternoon's updated CFS chart for February would still begin with a B but would not be BANK!

 

I'm reading through this thread and scratching my head regarding the comments accompanying the updated CFS charts.

 

Please use the save facility that Meteociel provide for you - it is the little floppy disc symbol at the top right above the chart - click on it and a separate box opens with the links for use in forums etc.

 

Edited September 15, 2013 by Don

[Radiating Dendrite]

At the moment we will either end up with the Holy Grail or a toilet brush this winter according to the CFS.

There seems to be no medium between the two in regards to current runs.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Interesting times continue.

 

We have had a very cold 'and short' summer in the arctic and ice has made 'whether short term or not' major recovery.  SSTs could play a big factor this autumn winter and there is current speculation of SSTs supporting another cold winter?  I don't know or have not seen that being such a strong correlation. MetO used to use SSTs in May to predict NAO pattern, for a few years there was a 66% correlation but that fell away it seems and MetO dropped the 'forecast'.  Not a criticism at all, I think they found that there is no worthy correlation on that basis as an example.

Well what does seem to be a theme is late winter of late has favoured cold and prolonged cold into Spring...this is more to do with the shift of the jetstream due to the solar driven patterns.

Am I going for cold....or are we due a mild and stormy one?  Going on past decades whether run of warm winters or cold ones an opposite winter invariably turns up.   

At this early stage though my thoughts tend to look at that we have entered into a different ball game.  I am looking at seeing if we get into 'ruts' again this autumn.  By that I mean lengthy periods of 'non zonal' weather patterns whether 'indian summer' or southerly tracking storm track . If we again experience this type of situation, then I think we'll go into the freezer again. 

More as we progress.

 

BFTP

[Cheshire Freeze]

Interesting times continue.

 

We have had a very cold 'and short' summer in the arctic and ice has made 'whether short term or not' major recovery.  SSTs could play a big factor this autumn winter and there is current speculation of SSTs supporting another cold winter?  I don't know or have not seen that being such a strong correlation. MetO used to use SSTs in May to predict NAO pattern, for a few years there was a 66% correlation but that fell away it seems and MetO dropped the 'forecast'.  Not a criticism at all, I think they found that there is no worthy correlation on that basis as an example.

Well what does seem to be a theme is late winter of late has favoured cold and prolonged cold into Spring...this is more to do with the shift of the jetstream due to the solar driven patterns.

Am I going for cold....or are we due a mild and stormy one?  Going on past decades whether run of warm winters or cold ones an opposite winter invariably turns up.   

At this early stage though my thoughts tend to look at that we have entered into a different ball game.  I am looking at seeing if we get into 'ruts' again this autumn.  By that I mean lengthy periods of 'non zonal' weather patterns whether 'indian summer' or southerly tracking storm track . If we again experience this type of situation, then I think we'll go into the freezer again. 

More as we progress.

 

BFTP

 

Nice to see you back Fred

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thanks Aaron, the interesting times all round start to get going...including...no especially the forum!!!!

 

BFTP