Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[UV-RAY]

I'm sure it was a factor, allied with a Nino base state in the latter years.

Agree, but we can still have extensive high latitude blocking but the UK ends up on the wrong side of the block, again.   For a punt I think we'll see the Azores high being our friend this coming Autumn/Winter, with mid latitude blocking come November and this then transferring over Greenland during the winter months. 

[snowking]

Coincidence can be very misleading, however: the cold winters of 1947, 63, 79, 82 and 2001 all occurred during times of relatively high sunspot activity...

Absolutely - hence the warning of the imperfect relationship. It's all part of the puzzle

[UV-RAY]

I'm sure it was a factor, allied with a Nino base state in the latter years.

 

Actually 1900-1940 saw an unusually long +PDO and then again from 1980-2005/2006

 

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/img/pdo_latest.tif

Indeed CC and another contributory factor for warming during the 20th century combined with high solar output for much of this time.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Indeed CC and another contributory factor for warming during the 20th century combined with high solar output for much of this time.

 

I will say, a lot of drivers seemed to conspire together to help a warming scenario. They seemed to come together at the same time. I wonder if the same is about to happen for cooling??

[SomeLikeItHot]

Coincidence can be very misleading, however: the cold winters of 1947, 63, 79, 82 and 2001 all occurred during times of relatively high sunspot activity...

47, and 79 occurred near strong solar maximums no doubt, but the other? 63 was 1 year prior to the minimum, 82 was midway between max and min, and 2001 wasn't even particularly cold?Anyway I don't think anyone here is claiming that it is other than one factor in outcome and some correlation exists, which is why a cold winter or two in the next few years won't prove anything with regard whether its right or wrong.

[Yarmy]

Indeed CC and another contributory factor for warming during the 20th century combined with high solar output for much of this time.

 

Was it that unusual though (figure 1 right hand panel)? 

 

http://www.leif.org/research/IAUS286-Mendoza-Svalgaard.pdf

 

 

The next few decades will be a good experiment though, there's no doubt about that.

[Methuselah]

47, and 79 occurred near strong solar maximums no doubt, but the other? 63 was 1 year prior to the minimum, 82 was midway between max and min, and 2001 wasn't even particularly cold?

Anyway I don't think anyone here is claiming that it is other than one factor in outcome and some correlation exists, which is why a cold winter or two in the next few years won't prove anything with regard whether its right or wrong.

Take your point re 2001.  

[Methuselah]

Was it that unusual though (figure 1 right hand panel)? 

 

http://www.leif.org/research/IAUS286-Mendoza-Svalgaard.pdf

 

 

The next few decades will be a good experiment though, there's no doubt about that.

I don't think it's really that unusual at all...surely it's no more out-of-the-ordinary than the idea that Solar variation can, indeed must, affect global temperature???

 

It's like a jigsaw puzzle with a million pieces! 

[cheeky_monkey]

Here's that vid by Gavin Partridge.....a very interesting watch

 

 

Especially interesting towards the 12 minute mark. Shows that during the Maunder period, continental temperatures plummeted some 2C on average.

What i find interesting is that it seems that sunspot activity has no effect on the North American winter climate at all..it seems to have a purely European influence.

[Summer Sun]

Just took a quick look at CFS for temperatures

 

December looks average (except western Scotland and Ireland)

 

January slightly below average

 

February well below average especially from the wash north wards

 

 

By March the blocking shifts eastwards

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just took a quick look at CFS for temperatures

 

December looks average (except western Scotland and Ireland)

 

January slightly below average

 

February well below average especially from the wash north wards

 

 

By March the blocking shifts eastwards

 

 

Another run and another -AO shown

[picog]

There seems to be a common theme emerging for winter; starting average-mild and getting colder, and then even colder. In other words, saving the best till last!

Edited September 11, 2013 by picog

[Cheshire Freeze]

There seems to be a common theme emerging for winter; starting average-mild and getting colder, and then even colder. In other words, saving the best till last!

 

November has often been shown to be a blocked, cold month also.

 

I tell you something, if November does end up blocked it'll be a massive coup for the CFS who was gunning for N blocking way back in March!

Edited September 11, 2013 by CreweCold

[Methuselah]

 

I tell you something, if November does end up blocked it'll be a massive coup for the CFS who was gunning for N blocking way back in March!

Only if it's consistently right, over a number of years, Crewe? One swallow does not make a summer...

Edited September 11, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[Cheshire Freeze]

Only if it's consistently right, over a number of years, Crewe? On swallow does not make a summer...

 

True, though the CFS was only upgraded a year or two back to v2.

[Robbie Garrett]

November has often been shown to be a blocked, cold month also.

 

I tell you something, if November does end up blocked it'll be a massive coup for the CFS who was gunning for N blocking way back in March!

Good old CFS... never done wrong!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Good old CFS... never done wrong!!

 

haha now that isn't strictly true is it

[Robbie Garrett]

haha now that isn't strictly true is it

 

It's got a lot correct over the years, but what model has really done it consistently.  NONE! 

[Methuselah]

It's got a lot correct over the years, but what model has really done it consistently.  NONE! 

Which takes me back to my earlier question: if the CFS really is that good, why haven't seasonal LRFs got any better?

[Summer Sun]

Which takes me back to my earlier question: if the CFS really is that good, why haven't seasonal LRFs got any better?

 

If CFS nails this winter it will be the best model around amongst the coldies

 

If it fails to deliver it will end up here

 

[cheese]

Which takes me back to my earlier question: if the CFS really is that good, why haven't seasonal LRFs got any better?

Do most even take the CFS into account? I really have no idea. Don't Met organisations like the Met Office have their own LR models?

Edited September 11, 2013 by cheese

[Summer Sun]

Do most even take the CFS into account? I really have no idea. Don't Met organisations like the Met Office have their own LR models?

 

I think the met office have MOGREPS or something like that

[stewfox]

There seems to be a common theme emerging for winter; starting average-mild and getting colder, and then even colder. In other words, saving the best till last!

 

In need there has been a lot of comparisons this summer with the summer of 06 but who can forget Feb86 at -1.1c  following an average Jan of 3.5c and very mild Dec 85 of 6.3c (CET figures). Overdue a prolonged cold Feb that's for sure

[hillbilly]

In need there has been a lot of comparisons this summer with the summer of 06 but who can forget Feb86 at -1.1c  following an average Jan of 3.5c and very mild Dec 85 of 6.3c (CET figures). Overdue a prolonged cold Feb that's for sure

you may have forgot about the 1985/1986 season.....

November 1985 coldest since 1919[i think]..and still counting

feb1986 coldest since 1963 and any other month..and still counting

april 1986 coldest in over 80 years..and counting

august 1986 coldest since 1956..and counting

September 1986 coldest since...I forgot,but its a long time..and counting

will have to have another look as I have a blank but you get the general just!!!!    

That is my 9 year old messing!!!!

[Gavin Hannah]

Don't the models err on the side of caution for the LR stuff?  Settling for a 'best fit' scenario? Meaning that what we end up with could be colder/snowier or milder/wetter than whats currently being shown.

 

If so, then the CFS could be underplaying the extent of the 'Average' start to winter.......