Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Snowman.]

We hear scare stories every year about the gulf stream. Until it comes from a reputable source, I really wouldn't take any notice.

I've heard it's slower than it use to be but I guess we can only blame ourselves for that.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Would 528 dam and -3c uppers produce snow to low levels? I know there is a slim chance but is it even remotely possible even at night? Keep seeing charts for this on 2nd November

 

Probably not, for here I tend to need 522 and -8 uppers, and Nov 2nd a little early in season, air temps probably too high

[Mark Neal.]

Would 528 dam and -3c uppers produce snow to low levels? I know there is a slim chance but is it even remotely possible even at night? Keep seeing charts for this on 2nd November

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/27989-how-to-try-and-forecast-snow/- Some great information here from J.H

 

This image was posted last winter and is very useful on interpreting upper temperatures on the meteociel charts. 

Edited October 24, 2013 by Mark N

[Snowman.]

Would 528 dam and -3c uppers produce snow to low levels? I know there is a slim chance but is it even remotely possible even at night? Keep seeing charts for this on 2nd November

You would need DP to below 0 and temp to be 2 or lower, with uppers in the negatives if it was to snow it wouldn't last long and be gone within a few hours.

[smithyweather]

Probably not, for here I tend to need 522 and -8 uppers, and Nov 2nd a little early in season, air temps probably too high

-6c here. I find showers are strong in northernly airstream. Edited October 24, 2013 by smithyweather

[stewfox]

No because it doesn't have any major effect on our weather. It's because our weather comes from the west off the atlantic ocean and the european continent is disconnected from the arctic. 

 

The gulf stream has a major impact on our weather.

 

Temps on average would be 5c cooler each winter if it stopped

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/North-Atlantic-Drift-Gulf-Stream.htm

 

 

I've heard it's slower than it use to be but I guess we can only blame ourselves for that.

 

Why ?

We hear scare stories every year about the gulf stream. Until it comes from a reputable source, I really wouldn't take any notice.

 

In need the IPCC and the Telegraph are at it again. Best to ignore

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10337064/IPCC-report-Britain-could-cool-if-Gulf-Stream-slows.html

Edited October 24, 2013 by stewfox

[smithyweather]

The gulf stream has a major impact on our weather.

 

Temps on average would be 5c cooler each winter if it stopped

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/North-Atlantic-Drift-Gulf-Stream.htm

 

 

 

Why ?

 

In need the IPCC and the Telegraph are at it again. Best to ignore

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10337064/IPCC-report-Britain-could-cool-if-Gulf-Stream-slows.html

I'm not sure if they would be.  The azores high would still affect us and the Atlantic weather would still affect us.

[stewfox]

I'm not sure if they would be.  The azores high would still affect us and the Atlantic weather would still affect us.

 

But the 'heat' would have gone

 

5-10c is the accepted norm although its not going to happen

 

http://www.theguardian.com/science/2005/mar/03/thisweekssciencequestions2

 

You can see its effect there.

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicennowcast.gif

 

So a forecast for this winter will have to be without the Gulf Stream closing down.

[smithyweather]

But the 'heat' would have gone5-10c is the accepted norm although its not going to happenhttp://www.theguardian.com/science/2005/mar/03/thisweekssciencequestions2You can see its effect there.http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicennowcast.gifSo a forecast for this winter will have to be without the Gulf Stream closing down.

Well I suppose the sea moderates the arctic air and if the atlantic was say 2c we would not get warm in the winter. But I doubt it would be that cold, it's too wide.And does 5-10c mean the max? If so my average max would be about -3c. Edited October 24, 2013 by smithyweather

[forecaster]

I'm not sure if they would be.  The azores high would still affect us and the Atlantic weather would still affect us.

 

I suspect that is the case. Subtropical highs like living off the west edge of continents (i.e. Europe for the Azores High). If the Gulf Stream "shut down", perhaps we would end up with a weaker but similar current, forced by persistent winds around the Azores High. SST's would be lower, so perhaps we would have similar weather patterns but cooler resulting temperatures. 

Lots of "perhaps" there!

[Snowman.]

The gulf stream has a major impact on our weather.Temps on average would be 5c cooler each winter if it stoppedhttp://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/North-Atlantic-Drift-Gulf-Stream.htmWhy?In need the IPCC and the Telegraph are at it again. Best to ignorehttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10337064/IPCC-report-Britain-could-cool-if-Gulf-Stream-slows.html

It's a effect caused by global warming as fresh water slows it way too tired and on phone so here is a link if you wish to read about it.http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutdown_of_thermohaline_circulation

[Snowman.]

I suspect that is the case. Subtropical highs like living off the west edge of continents (i.e. Europe for the Azores High). If the Gulf Stream "shut down", perhaps we would end up with a weaker but similar current, forced by persistent winds around the Azores High. SST's would be lower, so perhaps we would have similar weather patterns but cooler resulting temperatures. Lots of "perhaps" there!

You get no warm which means moisture wouldn't be able to form well especially in winter months, however that is a slight exaggeration in temps in General would only 2-3 lower than there current eve rage all year round.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Probably not, for here I tend to need 522 and -8 uppers, and Nov 2nd a little early in season, air temps probably too high

Disagree, Late Last October we had -1 850's would you believe , a trough moved accross southern England in the early hours of Sunday morning , and in a lot of places it turned to heavy wet snow , including hear. Granted it was very very heavy ppn and evaporative cooling played its part , and it was mainly on high ground but in bath city which is about 500asl , 3 inches fell in 2 hours , it made news.It takes pretty exeptional circumstances for this to happen , such as very heavy ppn arriving at night under still conditions . But 850's of -3 would normally be very marginal , not a definite no no , but would rely on other factors to make it happen .

[feb1991blizzard]

Im really not confident of a decent start now, there are very slight warmings in the stratosphere but there tentative and just not looking like getting into the polar regions to disrupt the core, the best we can hope for is some Northerly topplers in the very early winter

[BornFromTheVoid]

The gulf stream has a major impact on our weather.

 

Temps on average would be 5c cooler each winter if it stopped

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/North-Atlantic-Drift-Gulf-Stream.htm

 

 

 

Why ?

 

In need the IPCC and the Telegraph are at it again. Best to ignore

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10337064/IPCC-report-Britain-could-cool-if-Gulf-Stream-slows.html

 

Britain could cool if  the gulf stream slows. A bit different to the winter being cold because the gulf stream is fragmenting.

[Buriedundersnow]

Im really not confident of a decent start now, there are very slight warmings in the stratosphere but there tentative and just not looking like getting into the polar regions to disrupt the core, the best we can hope for is some Northerly topplers in the very early winter

 

we don't have to have an SSW to get decent cold

[feb1991blizzard]

we don't have to have an SSW to get decent cold

 

No but we really don't want the temps at the 30hpa mark to be getting down towards that -80c mark, that's real danger levels and screams zonal first half.

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello, this doesn't look too bad.

 

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Hello, this doesn't look too bad.

 

Yes we have seen this same warming repeated for some time but not really getting any closer, never the less the signs are there

[Weather-history]

December, January and March since the start of 2010 have returned one month that was at least 2C below the 1961-90 CET average. I can see no reason why February can't return such a value and the near future. I would be very, very surprised if we do not see one this decade, it could be next February.

[Summer Sun]

Latest 3 month outlook from WSI

 

Mild Start to November Followed by Colder Weather Through December

 

Coldest Risk Early and Potentially Late this Winter with ‘January Thaw’

 

Andover, MA, 23 October 2013 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects below-normal temperatures for the upcoming period (November-January) across most of the northern mainland, eastern Europe, and western Russia, with above-normal temperatures elsewhere.According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “A very mild westerly flow pattern has become established across Europe, and it appears as if this pattern will persist into at least early November. However, our internal statistical analysis suggests an increasing threat of North Atlantic blocking and colder weather later in November and through December. By January, however, dynamical and statistical models suggest a quick transition to a much milder pattern across much of mainland Europe as westerly flow becomes re-established. Finally, the February-March pattern will be driven by the existence (or not) of a sudden stratospheric warming event, which would disrupt the polar vortex and result in sharply increased chances of colder temperatures as the winter ends.â€In November, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Warmer than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normal west, colder than normal eastSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except far SoutheastIn December, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Colder than normal, except extreme northern sectionsUK – Colder than normalNorthern Mainland – Colder than normalSouthern Mainland – Colder than normal, except southern half of Iberia and ItalyIn January, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Warmer than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme eastern sectionsSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme Southeast 

http://www.wsi.com/9e3fe732-db20-4561-aee8-3a0f2af5306c/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

 

 

 

[UV-RAY]

Latest 3 month outlook from WSI

 

Mild Start to November Followed by Colder Weather Through December

 

Coldest Risk Early and Potentially Late this Winter with ‘January Thaw’

 

Andover, MA, 23 October 2013 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects below-normal temperatures for the upcoming period (November-January) across most of the northern mainland, eastern Europe, and western Russia, with above-normal temperatures elsewhere.According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “A very mild westerly flow pattern has become established across Europe, and it appears as if this pattern will persist into at least early November. However, our internal statistical analysis suggests an increasing threat of North Atlantic blocking and colder weather later in November and through December. By January, however, dynamical and statistical models suggest a quick transition to a much milder pattern across much of mainland Europe as westerly flow becomes re-established. Finally, the February-March pattern will be driven by the existence (or not) of a sudden stratospheric warming event, which would disrupt the polar vortex and result in sharply increased chances of colder temperatures as the winter ends.â€In November, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Warmer than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normal west, colder than normal eastSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except far SoutheastIn December, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Colder than normal, except extreme northern sectionsUK – Colder than normalNorthern Mainland – Colder than normalSouthern Mainland – Colder than normal, except southern half of Iberia and ItalyIn January, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Warmer than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme eastern sectionsSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme Southeast 

http://www.wsi.com/9e3fe732-db20-4561-aee8-3a0f2af5306c/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

That would do me, if of course their statistical model ( best guess ) was right.

[Don]

Latest 3 month outlook from WSI

 

Mild Start to November Followed by Colder Weather Through December

 

Coldest Risk Early and Potentially Late this Winter with ‘January Thaw’

 

Andover, MA, 23 October 2013 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects below-normal temperatures for the upcoming period (November-January) across most of the northern mainland, eastern Europe, and western Russia, with above-normal temperatures elsewhere.According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “A very mild westerly flow pattern has become established across Europe, and it appears as if this pattern will persist into at least early November. However, our internal statistical analysis suggests an increasing threat of North Atlantic blocking and colder weather later in November and through December. By January, however, dynamical and statistical models suggest a quick transition to a much milder pattern across much of mainland Europe as westerly flow becomes re-established. Finally, the February-March pattern will be driven by the existence (or not) of a sudden stratospheric warming event, which would disrupt the polar vortex and result in sharply increased chances of colder temperatures as the winter ends.â€In November, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Warmer than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normal west, colder than normal eastSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except far SoutheastIn December, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Colder than normal, except extreme northern sectionsUK – Colder than normalNorthern Mainland – Colder than normalSouthern Mainland – Colder than normal, except southern half of Iberia and ItalyIn January, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Warmer than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme eastern sectionsSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme Southeast 

http://www.wsi.com/9e3fe732-db20-4561-aee8-3a0f2af5306c/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

 

If this forecast was to come off, we could be looking at a similar Winter to1995/96.  Not sure what the success rate is for WSI but if I remember correctly, they went for a mild Winter last year?

[UV-RAY]

If this forecast was to come off, we could be looking at a similar Winter to1995/96.  Not sure what the success rate is for WSI but if I remember correctly, they went for a mild Winter last year?

They called last winter right if my memory is right though I think they got this summer wrong?

[Don]

They called last winter right if my memory is right though I think they got this summer wrong?

 

Well I won't complain too much if this forecast comes off!  To be fair, I think many were caught out by this Summer?