Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[UV-RAY]

I suppose in a set up like  that shown of the GLOSEA model we could see a NE influence from time to time, it's still looking far better than last year.

[Summer Sun]

Just out of interest, I have attached the Met Office forecast for winter 2010/2011 and for winter 2011/2012 issued in the corresponding Octobers. The model has apparently improved since then. I think it's version 5 now. 

 

As you can see, for both these winters it picked the general pattern nicely. 

 

Yep October 2011 it showed above average temps for winter 11 / 12

 

 

Final result above average temps (0.9°C)

Edited October 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[snowking]

It certainly did okay for 2011/12:

 

 

But not so good, in my opinion, for 2010/11:

 

 

Perhaps the 2010/11 example is a good example to show why looking at mean sea level pressure across a whole season can be very deceptive indeed. If you were to look at the above composite from that period, one would assume it was a winter driven by mild SW'ly winds. Whilst January and February certainly were far from cold, we managed one of the most memorable spells of winter weather for many decades in December, and yet we still produce a composite such as that overall for the season.

 

This is not to bash the GloSea model at all as some terrific advances have been made. But this is part and parcel of the reason that I very rarely take in to account seasonal forecast models themselves when making seasonal predictions.

 

SK

Edited October 21, 2013 by snowking

[Gael_Force]

What is evident when looking at the outer quintiles category maps is the reduction in warm probabilities as the months progress. By the time we are at JFM, the probabilities increase for well below temps to our south.

 

[Don]

I suppose in a set up like  that shown of the GLOSEA model we could see a NE influence from time to time, it's still looking far better than last year.

 

What was the GLOSEA model showing this time last year?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Quite a downgrade on the GLOSEA4 model it has to be said. It's a model I rate quite highly aswell. That scenario would bring quite a lot of crud around the top of a mid Atlantic high which isn't far N enough to allow us to tap into the colder air. Benign and uneventful pretty much sums that run up.

[UV-RAY]

What was the GLOSEA model showing this time last year?

It was pretty good last year at picking up the right signal nearer the time, although it was showing HLB right up until October/ November if my memory serves me right.

Quite a downgrade on the GLOSEA4 model it has to be said. It's a model I rate quite highly aswell. That scenario would bring quite a lot of crud around the top of a mid Atlantic high which isn't far N enough to allow us to tap into the colder air. Benign and uneventful pretty much sums that run up.

There would be spells were the high would push further N/NE I would imagine/hope though.

Edited October 21, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[feb1991blizzard]

Looking beyond Feb the Jan to March outlook shows the high just hitting Iceland but other than that it continues to keep the Atlantic quiet as we start spring

 

 

2m temps for December to Feb look pretty much on average

 

 

TBH all the cold charts appeared way too early IMO if they started to appear now then maybe we could have more confidence but when they appeared so early the downgrades seemed inevitable to me

 

Overall we could be looking at a fairly quiet winter no worse than slightly below average no better than slightly above with below average rainfall

 

I agree with you there to a point, nothing scientific but as with a frontal snow event, you don't want a seasonal model to get the blocking in exactly the best place too much before the event, IMO you want to be a little bit away but correcting in your favour the nearer it gets to the season / event, just a personal opinion.

[feb1991blizzard]

Quite a downgrade on the GLOSEA4 model it has to be said. It's a model I rate quite highly aswell. That scenario would bring quite a lot of crud around the top of a mid Atlantic high which isn't far N enough to allow us to tap into the colder air. Benign and uneventful pretty much sums that run up.

 

I need you to offer some hope , is there anything you can spot in the LRM's that are positive?, surely its a mean chart and as earlier someone said, surely a bit of ridging into GL at times with those charts?

[feb1991blizzard]

Mind you it doesn't sound great as i think that models nearly up into the mesosphere so i suppose we have to call it as we see it - its not good news.

[Snowstorm1]

3 words people - It's only October!

[Methuselah]

Are peeps confusing projected anomalies with eventual synoptics? It is indeed only October! 

[forecaster]

What was the GLOSEA model showing this time last year?

 

See attached. This winter uses a newer version of the model though.

Edited October 21, 2013 by forecaster

[draztik]

Looking at the latest update from the Glosea4 model, it does look like bad news for those wanting cold conditions. But, to offer hope, this is the same model, which helped to forecast the ongoing 2013 hurricane season. The MetO released the following back in May...

'The most likely number of hurricanes predicted to occur in the North Atlantic during the June to November period is 9, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 4 to 14. This represents above normal activity relative to the 1980-2010 long-term average of 6. '

tho the season isn't over, we are currently at 2 hurricanes.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the latest update from the Glosea4 model, it does look like bad news for those wanting cold conditions. But, to offer hope, this is the same model, which helped to forecast the ongoing 2013 hurricane season. The MetO released the following back in May...'The most likely number of hurricanes predicted to occur in the North Atlantic during the June to November period is 9, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 4 to 14. This represents above normal activity relative to the 1980-2010 long-term average of 6. 'tho the season isn't over, we are currently at 2 hurricanes.

 

I thought all Hurricane data came from NOAA?

[draztik]

I thought all Hurricane data came from NOAA?

At the start of each North Atlantic season the Met Office forecasts the number of tropical storms and the value of the ACE index. Previously, this was for the period July-November. However, since 2011 the forecast has been issued for the full season (June-November). The forecast has been produced following research collaborations with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).The forecast is made using information from two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems; the Met Office GloSea4 system and ECMWF system 4.http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/seasonal/northatlantic2012

[Summer Sun]

At the start of each North Atlantic season the Met Office forecasts the number of tropical storms and the value of the ACE index. Previously, this was for the period July-November. However, since 2011 the forecast has been issued for the full season (June-November). The forecast has been produced following research collaborations with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).The forecast is made using information from two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems; the Met Office GloSea4 system and ECMWF system 4.http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/seasonal/northatlantic2012

 

Thanks

 

It seems the hurricane season has caught a few out this year, unusually quiet to say the least

[draztik]

Thanks It seems the hurricane season has caught a few out this year, unusually quiet to say the least

you're not wrong, just highlights the limitations to any LRM.

[UV-RAY]

Are peeps confusing projected anomalies with eventual synoptics? It is indeed only October! 

Not at all, but it's still a downgrade from the previous update. Luckily I don't rate any model for reliability beyond 10 days and besides what will be will be.

[Methuselah]

Not at all, but it's still a downgrade from the previous update. Luckily I don't rate any model for reliability beyond 10 days and besides what will be will be.

Well, that's 2 of us...

[Cheshire Freeze]

I need you to offer some hope , is there anything you can spot in the LRM's that are positive?, surely its a mean chart and as earlier someone said, surely a bit of ridging into GL at times with those charts?

 

Someone like Steve Murr would tell you that we need to see significant +VE anomalies to the north to denote HLB. The average pressure situation across places like Greenland during winter is low anyway, so the fact the GLOSEA model shows average to below average pressure to our N is not a good sign. In reality, if the GLOSEA prediction is correct, we would be seeing a lot of azores ridging across the country and to our SW- along with N'ly topplers.

Edited October 21, 2013 by CreweCold

[Buriedundersnow]

i dont rate these models and I know we all have to take on board what they say as it would be stupid not to as they have to be right sometimes (prob more luck than judgement) 

 

barbeque summers that turned into washouts.

 

we were told we would be going into a period of wet summers then had a barbeque one.

 

told on television after 2010 that 09 and 10 were just a blip and we would be back to mild winters with little snow about.

 

I would like to know how many times they have been right compared to how often they are wrong

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Well, if this forecast comes off, I certainly won't complain! Yes December is forecast to be mild but the cold Winters of the mid 1980's all had mild Decembers. As always time will tell.

I think most coldies on here would accept mild/cold/cold for DJF if it was offered to them right now ( call the banker style offer).If i had the choice i would prefer the cold early doors like 10/11. Edited October 21, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[MR EXTREMES]

Someone like Steve Murr would tell you that we need to see significant +VE anomalies to the north to denote HLB. The average pressure situation across places like Greenland during winter is low anyway, so the fact the GLOSEA model shows average to below average pressure to our N is not a good sign. In reality, if the GLOSEA prediction is correct, we would be seeing a lot of azores ridging across the country and to our SW- along with N'ly topplers.

and this was a trend that's been running through summer very storming but often mild winter is likely although I hold hope for feb.

[Buriedundersnow]

as for this winter and the pattern we are seeing just now and maybe one of the more experienced in here can help me out as I may be wrong.

 

is there any chance the pattern we are seeing set just now is purely down to these typhoons recurving in the pacific towards Alaska which in turn is forcing the jet to dip over the eastern US then rise back up the east coast through the atlantic and driving the zonal flow we are seeing just now as this isn't allowing the jet to be forced south toward spain and in turn the dip of the jet in the eastern US is helping take the PV over that way as well and we cant look any further till we get the recurving in the pacific out of the way.

 

just a thought and I may be wrong.