Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Summer Sun]

For the umpteenth time running, it shown nowhere to have an odds on chance of being below normal, I would like to see its output in global map projection format, to see if it actually forecasts a below average winter anywhere.

 

Maybe it has large teapot theory programmed into it, but in reality, it looks like its got chocolate teapot theory programmed into it.

 

It does seems to favour mild weather

 

 

And no I haven't rigged it

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Shocking graphics in terms of ease to read, either way, the best one for presentation is the CFS in meteociel format.

It does seems to favour mild weather

 

 

And no I haven't rigged it

 

 

 

I was right first time wasn't I, it is a Gavin spectacular run??

[cobbett]

Last winter the EC32's were consistently wrong with their monthly updates, in fact it became a bit of a standing joke when Matt Hugo tweeted each month how the EC32 was seeing HLB when in actual fact the exact opposite kept on happening. We are still a million miles off issuing correct forecast beyond 10 days.

He did indeed. His winter forecast (if he does one) will hopefully be out soon so that will be interesting to see

[Yarmy]

IRI is in for October

 

continues to go above normal for temps

 

 

No real signal for precipitation

 

 

 

I read that as saying most of the UK has a 40-45% chance of having above average temperatures for D/J/F when calculated across a variety of models. So that would be a 55-60% chance of normal or below. 

 

The precipitation chart is ludicrous, conveying as it does absolutely no information other than the shape of Europe.

Edited October 18, 2013 by Yarmy

[feb1991blizzard]

I read that as saying most of the UK has a 40-45% chance of having above average temperatures for D/J/F when calculated across a variety of models. So that would be a 55-60% chance of normal or below. 

 

The precipitation chart is ludicrous, conveying as it does absolutely no information other than the shape of Europe.

 

Don't forget there has to be a % chance of being around average as well,  as per my post above, I don't rate the presentation at all.

[johnholmes]

I read that as saying most of the UK has a 40-45% chance of having above average temperatures for D/J/F when calculated across a variety of models. So that would be a 55-60% chance of normal or below. 

 

The precipitation chart is ludicrous, conveying as it does absolutely no information other than the shape of Europe.

 

It explains quite clearly what white overland means so I see nothing to suggest as you do?

[Yarmy]

It explains quite clearly what white overland means so I see nothing to suggest as you do?

 

White means climatology, i.e. no signal at all. What use is that? Any forecast of any worth must be at least as good as the climatology skillwise when verified to what actually happens.

[Don]

For the umpteenth time running, it shown nowhere to have an odds on chance of being below normal, I would like to see its output in global map projection format, to see if it actually forecasts a below average winter anywhere.

 

Maybe it has large teapot theory programmed into it, but in reality, it looks like its got chocolate teapot theory programmed into it.

EDIT : Scrap that comment, I get it now, its just onions graphics.

 

EDIT AGAIN : No, I was right first time, that's showin everywhere mild.

 

I don't think I have ever seen this model forecast a colder than average Winter.  I don't rate it.

[feb1991blizzard]

I don't think I have ever seen this model forecast a colder than average Winter.  I don't rate it.

 

Apparently its a number of models combined, you would think by the chart Gavin posted that that would be a really strong signal for the whole world but like you say it never predicts cold so its probably a chocolate teapot averaged out, melted all over the kitchen table, cause by heat from its projected temperatures.

[forecaster]

White means climatology, i.e. no signal at all. What use is that? Any forecast of any worth must be at least as good as the climatology skillwise when verified to what actually happens.

 

I don't think a "no signal" forecast is as useless as you're claiming, and it happens frequently enough in all the models. e.g. the CFS shown below. Even the best models have huge areas of the globe covered with "no signal". It might mean that there truly is no signal (intrinsic), or it could mean the model is not good (practical). Hard to know in individual cases. I think what we hope, is that when a model does go for a signal, that it comes off well. The majority of seasons come in close to seasonal average, so for a model to predict "no signal" more often than not might be a sign that it is well calibrated.

 

 

[johnholmes]

White means climatology, i.e. no signal at all. What use is that? Any forecast of any worth must be at least as good as the climatology skillwise when verified to what actually happens.

 

I think you misunderstand, their prediction is for climatology to be the forecast, nothing in the data suggests it will be markedly different either one way or the other. That is just as good guidance as showing large -ve or +ve values. Well it is to me anyway.-

[Yarmy]

I think you misunderstand, their prediction is for climatology to be the forecast, nothing in the data suggests it will be markedly different either one way or the other. That is just as good guidance as showing large -ve or +ve values. Well it is to me anyway.-

 

Respectfully, I disagree. It's not showing anomalies, it's showing probabilities, and the precip chart isn't showing anything at all. It's not saying "we expect it to be close to the climatological average", it's saying "the uncertainty is too great to offer any prediction at all".

 

If you look at the CFS ensemble anomaly charts they too are covered in white to indicate areas where the skill level is so low that no forecast can be made.

 

My gripe is that the precip graphic is actually showing me less information than if I looked at an actual climatological precip chart for Winter, so why issue it at all?

Edited October 18, 2013 by Yarmy

[Weather Boy]

Why is it that the colours on the map (such as they are) don't seem to map the colours in the key?

 

I know I'm colour blind, but I don't usually get it that wrong!

[Buriedundersnow]

its very quiet in here with a lot of people not having much hope for this winter now the atlantic has woken up and things have been looking just above the average temperature wise.

 

just thought I would raise everyones spirits a little with a wee reminder that winter is far from over if you look at world weather over the last years the big thing that has started to appear more and more is massive swings in what weather there is in places.

 

i.e we have seen an increase with the swings in extremes around the world like going from record heat to record cold and also going from record setting rains to periods of well below average rains or drought conditions and this is happening all over.

 

so what I am trying to say is just because the atlantic is starting to roar now it doesn't mean even a month down the line from now we cant see cold or even exceptional cold with snow and ice days.

 

maybe even that elusive OMEGA BLOCK we all crave.

 

keep the faith people and wait to see what comes in the months ahead hopefully us coldies will see what we want.

[stewfox]

its very quiet in here with a lot of people not having much hope for this winter now the atlantic has woken up and things have been looking just above the average temperature wise.

 

just thought I would raise everyones spirits a little with a wee reminder that winter is far from over if you look at world weather over the last years the big thing that has started to appear more and more is massive swings in what weather there is in places.

 

i.e we have seen an increase with the swings in extremes around the world like going from record heat to record cold and also going from record setting rains to periods of well below average rains or drought conditions and this is happening all over.

 

so what I am trying to say is just because the atlantic is starting to roar now it doesn't mean even a month down the line from now we cant see cold or even exceptional cold with snow and ice days.

 

maybe even that elusive OMEGA BLOCK we all crave.

 

keep the faith people and wait to see what comes in the months ahead hopefully us coldies will see what we want.

 

In the old days all I had was the  'look out of window' and the 'weekly country file weather forecast' on a Sunday, if I missed that it was back to my parents Daily Express on the Monday

 

Happy days 

[EML Network]

IRI is in for October

 

continues to go above normal for temps

 

 

No real signal for precipitation

 

 

 

 

HA HA That's created by James Mad den's Nemisis.

 

That has about as much chance as coming off and Captain Mad Den's Ice Age Mageddon prediction and should be ignored in equal measure.

 

I STILL think we will have a warmer winter than the previous 6 and have thought so since July (and publicly stated it too), based on nothni9g else than pattern matching, and looking at previous winters where conditions have been SIMILAR.

 

2002 | 2003 seems a good comparison Winter IMO.

[Jaffusmaximus]

I am only going to write Winter 2013/14 off in my mind come March 2014. Only way is up now! Had we kept getting stonking CFS runs and LRF's then we would only have been set up for major let downs.

 

I still believe that all that early snow cover over Siberia is yet to shows its hand regarding this winter

Edited October 18, 2013 by Jaffusmaximus

[Cheshire Freeze]

Don't see why there's despondency at all at the moment. European long range models are apparently together on the idea of N blocking (as Matt Hugo told us yesterday) and the CFS is still churning out blocked charts...such as the run this morning. Unless it's a matter of collective reverse psychology?

Edited October 18, 2013 by CreweCold

[Yarmy]

Don't see why there's despondency at all at the moment. European long range models are apparently together on the idea of N blocking (as Matt Hugo told us yesterday) and the CFS is still churning out blocked charts...such as the run this morning. Unless it's a matter of collective reverse psychology?

 

As I've said before, for fun people should look at the winter prospects thread towards the end of Nov 2009. Now there's some despondency. (In deference to Chioni, he has pointed out that those in the Strat thread then were quietly optimistic).

[March Blizzard]

its very quiet in here with a lot of people not having much hope for this winter now the atlantic has woken up and things have been looking just above the average temperature wise.

 

just thought I would raise everyones spirits a little with a wee reminder that winter is far from over if you look at world weather over the last years the big thing that has started to appear more and more is massive swings in what weather there is in places.

 

i.e we have seen an increase with the swings in extremes around the world like going from record heat to record cold and also going from record setting rains to periods of well below average rains or drought conditions and this is happening all over.

 

so what I am trying to say is just because the atlantic is starting to roar now it doesn't mean even a month down the line from now we cant see cold or even exceptional cold with snow and ice days.

 

maybe even that elusive OMEGA BLOCK we all crave.

 

keep the faith people and wait to see what comes in the months ahead hopefully us coldies will see what we want.

 

I think many people are subconsciously aware that in recent years we have seen a particular pattern emerge and become defiantly stubborn. Our weather has become less "mobile" over the last few years and many may fear that an Atlantic onslaught may be "locked in" for the next 3-4 months.

 

I'm not worried, the models chop and change all the time. We must also remember that the models are displaying what they think might happen, they are not a picture of what will happen.

Edited October 18, 2013 by March Blizzard

[Buriedundersnow]

Don't see why there's despondency at all at the moment. European long range models are apparently together on the idea of N blocking (as Matt Hugo told us yesterday) and the CFS is still churning out blocked charts...such as the run this morning. Unless it's a matter of collective reverse psychology?

 

yes the CFS certainly going back to blocked charts.

 

heres the updated 12z

 

[Methuselah]

Sorry, for being so curmudgeonly, but why are the CFS's blocked charts any more (or less) believable than its zonals?

Edited October 18, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[Frank Trough]

Don't see why there's despondency at all at the moment. European long range models are apparently together on the idea of N blocking (as Matt Hugo told us yesterday) and the CFS is still churning out blocked charts...such as the run this morning. Unless it's a matter of collective reverse psychology?

 

i think much of it has to do with the ridiculous early season hype and cold hunting which began in september when two days of below average 850s appeared and now we are faced with charts like this:

 

 

There is a period in the Autumn on here when everything points to the next winter being the bestest ever for cold.....and it's always a long way down from there. 

[stewfox]

I am only going to write Winter 2013/14 off in my mind come March 2014. Only way is up now! Had we kept getting stonking CFS runs and LRF's then we would only have been set up for major let downs.

 

I still believe that all that early snow cover over Siberia is yet to shows its hand regarding this winter

 

Maybe April 2014 ?  Given IMBY had near two weeks of lying snow here in March.

 

I'll take snow what ever month it falls

Edited October 18, 2013 by stewfox

[MPG]

yes the CFS certainly going back to blocked charts.

 

heres the updated 12z

 

cfsnh-4-11-2013.pngcfsnh-4-12-2013.pngcfsnh-4-1-2014.pngcfsnh-4-2-2014.pngcfsnh-4-3-2014.pngcfsnh-4-4-2014.png

Dosent show much greenie blocking anyway.