Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Mark Neal.]

there was thunder and lightning with the snow up here in 2010

Would love to see Thunder Snow... Would a polar low be unstable enough and have the right features to cause lightning?

[feb1991blizzard]

they don't have to, they are not a forecast. have a read of this- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/user-guide

 

Agree, thanks, I have already read it earlier today, I know, but the CFS was good back in autumn 09 wrt the forthcoming winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes I know there has been thundersnow many times, I experienced it in Dec 90 on the 8th I think it was at around 3 am, I am talking about really intense thunderstorm snow though rather than a couple of cracks, is it possible?

[bobbydog]

Agree, thanks, I have already read it earlier today, I know, but the CFS was good back in autumn 09 wrt the forthcoming winter.

 if i remember correctly, the global long range probability maps for '09 were 'wrong' right up until the december update. they are compiled from historical data, which goes to show that previous (global) weather patterns do not necessarily lead to the same result

[RCT]

Yes I know there has been thundersnow many times, I experienced it in Dec 90 on the 8th I think it was at around 3 am, I am talking about really intense thunderstorm snow though rather than a couple of cracks, is it possible?

We had it down in the SW and the lightning lasted over an hour because that's what woke me up.

[bluearmy]

Re the CFS: last autumn, i spent too long looking through NH profiles of runs. What struck me was the lack of organisation of the p/v. It kept jumping around, splitting, displacing and really didnt seem to know what it wanted to do. I havent done the same this year s have no comment in this regard. Looking back, it was fairly accurate re last winters p/v behaviour in general terms though clearly not in any detail.

[Buriedundersnow]

Would love to see Thunder Snow... Would a polar low be unstable enough and have the right features to cause lightning?

 

I don't know about that i'm no expert but I would assume that thunder snow could come from any low as long as the cape is high enough

[feb1991blizzard]

Re the CFS: last autumn, i spent too long looking through NH profiles of runs. What struck me was the lack of organisation of the p/v. It kept jumping around, splitting, displacing and really didnt seem to know what it wanted to do. I havent done the same this year s have no comment in this regard. Looking back, it was fairly accurate re last winters p/v behaviour in general terms though clearly not in any detail.

 

There seemed about a month ago to be the same as what you have described but lately they have become more a 50/50 split or even more zonal with strong PV.

[cheese]

Indeed whilst last winter saw some decent cold weather at times, particularly in January and March, on the snow front it was fairly average and we had a very mild 4 week period mid Dec - mid Jan which many seem to forget. 2011/2012 in the main was very dissapointing on the snow front with a few showery outbreaks early in December and only one proper fall on the 4th Feb. It was predominantly mild with one cold spell early in February. If we look at the stats for the last 10 winters, 5 have been milder than average, 2 exceptionally so, 1 average, 4 colder than average but only 1 of these notably so. The bias has been for milder or near average winters.

 

Disappointing for snow? Maybe in your back yard, but for much of the country, it was a snow-fest. Just read the Yorks/Humber regional thread to see how frequently snow fell in N, W and S Yorkshire. If anything, it was disappointing for true cold as it was too cloudy for very low temps, but lots of snow fell. The same is true for parts of NW England too, and parts of the south.

 

We had 6 inches in Feb 2012 with a min temp of -13C. The winter as a while was rubbish, but it was a very decent spell of weather here, even though it reached 16C by the end of the month (not far from record values).

 

So, all in all, the past few winters have easily surpassed the winters prior to 2008/2009, in Yorkshire (admittedly a pretty good place for snow anyway).

Edited October 17, 2013 by cheese

[feb1991blizzard]

 if i remember correctly, the global long range probability maps for '09 were 'wrong' right up until the december update. they are compiled from historical data, which goes to show that previous (global) weather patterns do not necessarily lead to the same result

 

Pretty good in Oct 09 if you ask me.

 

[bobbydog]

Pretty good in Oct 09 if you ask me.

 

 thats the CFS, i was talking about these- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

[feb1991blizzard]

 thats the CFS, i was talking about these- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

 

Sorry, thought you were talking more generally, on a slightly different tack even GFS FI was really good in the run up to the second spell in Dec 10, cant post anything because they have been taken off now.

[March Blizzard]

Last Winter was very odd with the snow distribution especially in Greater Manchester, some relatives who live near Stockport had hardly any snow settle, yet here we had a number of measurable events.

 

Yeah, it was pretty poor for snow all winter around here, we had an inch or two lying for around 4-5 days in January and that was about it. In March nearly all precipitation fell as snow yet none really settled at all. I actually went up to Ikea in Ashton on March 10th and there was a decent amount of lying snow, especially on the hills nearby. Nout here in Stockport at the same time.

[bobbydog]

Sorry, thought you were talking more generally, on a slightly different tack even GFS FI was really good in the run up to the second spell in Dec 10, cant post anything because they have been taken off now.

 

i was talking generally but using these maps as an example. my point was that any long range chart should be used as a guideline rather than a forecast. most show a predicted average with a high margin for error. some people take these as a forecast when (as i'm sure you know) they are just one of many tools used in producing a long range forecast

[weirpig]

Yeah, it was pretty poor for snow all winter around here, we had an inch or two lying for around 4-5 days in January and that was about it. In March nearly all precipitation fell as snow yet none really settled at all. I actually went up to Ikea in Ashton on March 10th and there was a decent amount of lying snow, especially on the hills nearby. Nout here in Stockport at the same time.

Never really realised the difference in snow fall last winter from region to region,  here were had a few notable snow events january and march in particular, still i suppose thats the unpredicatability of british weather

[feb1991blizzard]

Yeah, it was pretty poor for snow all winter around here, we had an inch or two lying for around 4-5 days in January and that was about it. In March nearly all precipitation fell as snow yet none really settled at all. I actually went up to Ikea in Ashton on March 10th and there was a decent amount of lying snow, especially on the hills nearby. Nout here in Stockport at the same time.

 

Im only 6 miles from ashton and yes early March had good falls but you should have seen the peaks around here in late March!!!

[bridgechad]

Im only 6 miles from ashton and yes early March had good falls but you should have seen the peaks around here in late March!!!

 

i attempted to go to dove stones in that period and the road was shut just past dovestones, was a wall taller than me! never seen so much snow 

[syed2878]

interesting thots by bryan on weatheroutlook sounds to me he is stil sitting on the fence though i c he isn't stil buying the stratospheric side of things. On the other hand reading roger's forecast it doesn't look good. How ever this is the weather we talking about and it could change just like that and catch us out.

[Conor Sherwin]

.I believe there was lightning in the SE when they had heavy snow in Nov/Dec 2010?Interesting to see responses on this..!

there was to were i live 

[Conor Sherwin]

Yes I know there has been thundersnow many times, I experienced it in Dec 90 on the 8th I think it was at around 3 am, I am talking about really intense thunderstorm snow though rather than a couple of cracks, is it possible?

there was here at 3 PM to i was able to make an igloo 

[UV-RAY]

 Well, if it were so worthless we wouldn't bother delving-through it on each issue date and equally, our colleagues in Exeter wouldn't bother citing it so routinely in longer-range discussion briefings. It's one of a number of tools - not used in isolation. Equally, the EC32's form the basis for much of the 15-30d UKMO simplified web outlooks. To dismiss these ECMWF products, which form an important component in operational MR-LR forecast deliberation, is plain daft. The scientific community don't.

Last winter the EC32's were consistently wrong with their monthly updates, in fact it became a bit of a standing joke when Matt Hugo tweeted each month how the EC32 was seeing HLB when in actual fact the exact opposite kept on happening. We are still a million miles off issuing correct forecast beyond 10 days.

[BornFromTheVoid]

With the US Government shutdown finishing up, more data is becoming available.

 

It looks like the +ve upper ocean heat anomalies in the tropical Pacific have switched rapidly to -ve anomalies as a cold upwelling kelvin wave begins to exert an influence

 

.

 

This should help in keep things neutral through the winter, rather than the borderline El Nino being forecast by the CFS.

Edited October 18, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Summer Sun]

IRI is in for October

 

continues to go above normal for temps

 

 

No real signal for precipitation

 

[Buriedundersnow]

live cam of snow falling in Sweden

 

http://webbkameror.se/skidkameror/hemavan/hemavan_1_640.php

[feb1991blizzard]

IRI is in for October

 

continues to go above normal for temps

 

 

No real signal for precipitation

 

 

 

For the umpteenth time running, it shown nowhere to have an odds on chance of being below normal, I would like to see its output in global map projection format, to see if it actually forecasts a below average winter anywhere.

 

Maybe it has large teapot theory programmed into it, but in reality, it looks like its got chocolate teapot theory programmed into it.

EDIT : Scrap that comment, I get it now, its just onions graphics.

 

EDIT AGAIN : No, I was right first time, that's showin everywhere mild.

Edited October 18, 2013 by feb1991blizzard