Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[snowking]

The other notable trend from the CFS in recent days has been the height anomaly that has developed around the Scandinavia/Siberia area:

 

 

Did somebody say Snow Advance...

 

SK

[Summer Sun]

As others may have noticed, there's been quite a change in the CFS charts for November in recent days.

 

 

An explanation for the chart is here

 

The 5 day mean has now dipped below 0 (indicating more low pressure to the north). The trend has gone much more strongly downward. A temporary blip or the beginning of a trend towards a more zonal November (which would certainly help with my November forecast!)?

Yes November looks very mild this evening

 

 

Winter in general is fairly average

 

 

Out of the next 9 months from CFS (November 13 to June 14) only one is below normal this afternoon and thats March

 

Edited October 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

As others may have noticed, there's been quite a change in the CFS charts for November in recent days.

 

 

An explanation for the chart is here

 

The 5 day mean has now dipped below 0 (indicating more low pressure to the north). The trend has gone much more strongly downward. A temporary blip or the beginning of a trend towards a more zonal November (which would certainly help with my November forecast!)?

 

Yes November looks very mild this evening

 

 

Winter in general is fairly average

 

 

Out of the next 8 months from CFS (November 13 to June 14) only one is below normal this afternoon and thats March

 

Edited October 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[MR EXTREMES]

15 of October 1962

just having a bit of fun

 

15 November 1962

15th December 1962

15th of January 1963 my birthday lol

15th of feb 1963

to be honest the upper 850 air really is not that impressive to be honest and look how mild it was to the run up to the great winter of 63 the weather really is incredible

 

 

 

and December 1962 blocking over Greenland blocking over Russia and everything sliding underneath through the channel and down the north sea lovely looking charts if your a cold weather fan.

[MR EXTREMES]

and this chart is just absolutely incredible easterly anyone lol

and that's the difference we see in 2010 that massively strong Greenland heights 1050mb strong heights and a record breaking nao and ao in 2010 and im sure 63 was the same chances of this happening again well they have only 3 years ago but I cant see it happening this year but hey who knows......

Edited October 15, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Yarmy]

to see what happened its easy, simply go to wetter and click on the past data, msl-500mb and 850mb temperatures day by day?

Not sure if Net Wx now have this facility as far back as then?

 

Meteociel has the NCEP Reanalyses here also:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=15&month=10&year=1962&hour=0&map=0&mode=0

 

 

Doesn't look a million miles from the current synoptics.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

The other notable trend from the CFS in recent days has been the height anomaly that has developed around the Scandinavia/Siberia area:

 

cfs_anom_z500_asia_201311_28.png

 

Did somebody say Snow Advance...

 

SK

 

I'm getting the distinct impression the best analogue for this winter will be '78/'79 and that discrete undercutting may be the eventual outcome. Obviously, this could produce several notable snow events without looking 'stunning' on the pressure anomaly charts.

[feb1991blizzard]

I'm getting the distinct impression the best analogue for this winter will be '78/'79 and that discrete undercutting may be the eventual outcome. Obviously, this could produce several notable snow events without looking 'stunning' on the pressure anomaly charts.

 

I will certainly take it.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I will certainly take it.

 

Obviously in this situation we'd be playing with fine margins, depending on where the disruption to troughing takes place. Too far W/N and we'd be looking at unsettled and mild. Hits in the correct place and a lot of people would be laughing.

[feb1991blizzard]

Obviously in this situation we'd be playing with fine margins, depending on where the disruption to troughing takes place. Too far W/N and we'd be looking at unsettled and mild. Hits in the correct place and a lot of people would be laughing.

 

Yes, with fine margins though, you have to assume (I know that can be a risky thing to do), but if there was a winter full of undercutting it would result in some corkers for most people, fronts may not advance far enough, some may advance to far from my point of view or they could all deliver for me, wish I could buy myself another 100m of altitude but not only can I not afford it, I may even be back down in the west midlands due to no home up here (don't know yet), either way though you would think some potential would be there under those setups.

[Captain Shortwave]

Obviously in this situation we'd be playing with fine margins, depending on where the disruption to troughing takes place. Too far W/N and we'd be looking at unsettled and mild. Hits in the correct place and a lot of people would be laughing.

There's only so much prozac a human body can handle 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just looking at 1947 charts. Astonishingly, it was actually the Bartlett high!!! Yes out of all highs, that was the one to move up and open the floodgates to the most snowiest period on record! Nobody, not even god knows what will happen this winter yet.

[summer blizzard]

Interesting talk, i can't comment as yet as i have 60% of my data but need the shutdown to end for the rest.

[Panayiotis]

March has been consistently cold from the CFS...

[damianslaw]

Last winter was an interesting one - the polar vortex locked itself over the Canadian maritimes, just far enough west away from greenland to enable plenty of trough disruption thanks to slight heights to our NE - we got lucky last winter, had the core of the vortex been slightly further east, then we wouldn't have managed to get on the cold side of the trough during the second half, and no doubt would have seen the very mild wet conditions of mid december-mid january prevail, even with the effects of the strat warming.

 

Looking at November -

Interesting to note Nov 09 which was the wettest on record and one of the mildest yet we ended up with the coldest winter since 78/79 - colder still in Scotland. Nov 78 also very mild wet atlantic dominated and then the coldest winter since 62/63. November 84 another mild wet month followed by the cold Jan and Feb. Nov 09 saw anomalously low heights stick to our west throughout with the PV stuck over west greenland.

 

Nov 2010 on the other hand whilst we saw the exceptional cold in December, was then followed by a mild Jan and very mild Feb and March culiminating in the record warmth of April 2011.

 

I'm always wary of early cold in November - much better for the cold to set in during mid December - ala Dec 2009 for long term winter cold prospects. Recent years it has to be said have been very interesting though with much anticyclonic weather during October and November and a sluggish atlantic, think we should wait until about a months time before we can begin to make some sense of the likely base state of the northern hemisphere at least for the first half of the winter.

[Conor Sherwin]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ru/moscow/294021/november-weather/294021?monyr=11/1/2013

moscow to get snow to its pushing south to

[Mark Neal.]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ru/moscow/294021/november-weather/294021?monyr=11/1/2013

moscow to get snow to its pushing south to

Will certainly be good for the already good snowcover across Eurasia and to our NE! 

[Buriedundersnow]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ru/moscow/294021/november-weather/294021?monyr=11/1/2013

moscow to get snow to its pushing south to

 

 

according to that forecast there wont be anything near where what we need to build snow cover till at least the 20th of next month

[Conor Sherwin]

according to that forecast there wont be anything near where what we need to build snow cover till at least the 20th of next month

i think it updated 

[pandit-scholar]

I found this video by chance on YouTube. This appears to be a parody using the famous scene from the movie "Downfall" regarding "fantasy" snow forecasts and the lack of snow. It's quite hilarious. I wonder if some of us snow lovers will feel like that, if there is a lack of snow by the end of winter. I wonder who the hell made it and uploaded on there??

Edited October 15, 2013 by pandit-scholar

[NorthernRab]

Yes November looks very mild this evening

 

 

Winter in general is fairly average

 

 

 

Without meaning to sound rude, could you please just stop posting individual CFS runs? It's so misleading to newer members, especially considering the individual outputs are so widely varied that they're not even worth glancing at.

Edited October 15, 2013 by NorthernRab

[feb1991blizzard]

I have to say one of my main concerns is even if we get high latitude blocking that any Atlantic troughing could be to the south west rather than south or south east, to get record breaking cold really you do need a stationary low to the south.

[summer blizzard]

I have to say one of my main concerns is even if we get high latitude blocking that any Atlantic troughing could be to the south west rather than south or south east, to get record breaking cold really you do need a stationary low to the south.

 

A possibility but seasonal wavelengths would only likely put further pressure on the low to move east as winter progresses.

[feb1991blizzard]

A possibility but seasonal wavelengths would only likely put further pressure on the low to move east as winter progresses.

 

Isnt a West based -NAO more likely towards the end of Winter though?

[throwoff]

With the growth continuing at a rapid speed in the snow and ice charts I am begining to have the tingle of excitement about what is to come.

 

I still won't bother looking at anything beyond 7 days as it is changing on each run.