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Convective / Storm Discussion - 23rd August onwards 2013

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Jax Veteran

Jax

Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
Posted

This thread just discusses convective weather i.e thunderstorms,lightning,hail etc.Posted Image

To be fair the thread title is ambiguous in its nature, and I would take it as read that storms are storms rather than convective only.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

 

This thread just discusses convective weather i.e thunderstorms,lightning,hail etc.Posted Image

True Ben...But a wee bit of slack won't do any harm...Posted Image 

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

Its a long way out so is unlikely to verify and looks way too deep for the time of year.

 

This isn't anything to do with convective weather. You should post this in the Atlantic storms thread.

 

This thread just discusses convective weather i.e thunderstorms,lightning,hail etc.Posted Image

 

Very true, although if I wanted to be pedantic I could say that such a set up would draw up some nice warm air from southern Europe and if the LP moved in with its attendant fronts could cause things to turn rather more thundery and convective Posted Image

 

However, as you say it is very unlikely to verify - pity though.

 

Some interesting possibilities throughout today and tomorrow. Today is a sunshine and showers day but there is a lot of DLS knocking about, more especially to the west and this could sustain any thunderstorms that get to the correct height for a long time. The problem is lack of real instability, but as we have already seen there is enough for lightning. During this afternoon as LST's start to increase and with cold air aloft I would imagine there will be a lot of showers and any of them could turn thundery. Hail quite likely in some of them too with ELT's around -30/-35. Worth noting that the DLS (up to 100knts!) spreads eastwards through the afternoon too.

 

Tomorrow's charts appear to show some showers clustering around East Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and then East Anglia, with some wind convergence setting up close to the east coasts of England and north coast of Norfolk. Some charts are showing the likelihood for a lot of rain to fall and with some CAPE about along with the continuing upper jet creating strong DLS there could be some organised thunderstorms around in this sector.

 

On the whole, although I would expect lightning scattered across the board, lightning would not be all that frequent as cloud tops look to be a bit limited for this.

Edited by Supacell
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Its a long way out so is unlikely to verify and looks way too deep for the time of year.

 

This isn't anything to do with convective weather. You should post this in the Atlantic storms thread.

 

This thread just discusses convective weather i.e thunderstorms,lightning,hail etc.Posted Image

I just boiled an egg and made some toast soldiers.....sprinkled some salt on top of the egg.....it was lovely.....Why am I posting this? I hear you ask....well, boiling the egg in water uses a process called convection, therefore it's fair game in this thread....lol

 

 

Twistergirl, I've not had a look at the model output this morning, but at a guess, I'd say that dartboard low modeled at T360 might welllbe a hurricane/tropical storm remnant Posted Image

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Jax Veteran

Jax

Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
Posted

I just boiled an egg and made some toast soldiers.....sprinkled some salt on top of the egg.....it was lovely.....Why am I posting this? I hear you ask....well, boiling the egg in water uses a process called convection, therefore it's fair game in this thread....lol

 

 

Twistergirl, I've not had a look at the model output this morning, but at a guess, I'd say that dartboard low modeled at T360 might welllbe a hurricane/tropical storm remnant Posted Image

In that case I boiled the kettle for a cuppa...

 

 

...OK going now.  (bugger, now I want an egg...)

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

Some potential for this afternoon, particularly for West England, and East Wales.

 

post-5986-0-01214700-1378643535_thumb.pnpost-5986-0-53324900-1378643540_thumb.pn

 

CAPE widely develops, although not much of it, and LI indicates that the atmosphere is on the cusp of instability. Some DLS of 15m/s along with surface heating may allow storms to develop from hefty showers with up to 18mm rain possible in places.

 

post-5986-0-83081300-1378643589_thumb.pn

 

However, dew points suggest marginality for storm fuel, with the West of England and Wales, and SE England the most likely places for those to develop, but showers will drift and are likely to die firstly as dusk falls, and secondly as they drift into the central England band.

 

post-5986-0-13964900-1378643952_thumb.pn

 

There is a minor risk of some convective gusts in SE England, but not much more than 10 m/s (22 mph), associated with high vertical velocity throughout the whole atmosphere profile, particularly after 15z through 'till nightfall. Hail seems to be unlikely given low CAPE values.

 

That's my guess

 

Posted Image

Edited by Sparkicle
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Helical activity in The Channel off Eastbourne heading towards Hastings about an hour ago. 3 distinct funnels but nothing reaching the surface:

 

 
 
 
 
Edited by Coast
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TwisterGirl81 Experienced

TwisterGirl81

Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
Posted

Its a long way out so is unlikely to verify and looks way too deep for the time of year.

 

This isn't anything to do with convective weather. You should post this in the Atlantic storms thread.

 

This thread just discusses convective weather i.e thunderstorms,lightning,hail etc.Posted Image

 

But I thought the big storms of I think 1987 was in an October?  I have enjoyed this summer alot but I am ready for a few wind storms now....We hardly get storms any more like we used to,,,,

 

Ok I will post in Atlantic storms thread, thankyou for informing me

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Just had a torrential shower/hailstorm pass through, some exceptionaly heavy rain and small hail, wasn't expecting g that, my garden is flooded!

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IanR Seasoned

IanR

Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan
Posted

was getting hopes up of some thunder in the tasty looking cumulonimbus that just passed over, anvil formation  and cauliflower tops,  very dark cloud that looked like a ragged wall cloud as it approached and greeny brown colour behind that,

 

but not a sausage , just rain, and not really torrential Posted Image  ,just a little heavyish  what the hell does it take here.   

 

RUBBISH

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MrSunshine Contributor

MrSunshine

Posted
Posted

was getting hopes up of some thunder in the tasty looking cumulonimbus that just passed over, anvil formation  and cauliflower tops,  very dark cloud that looked like a ragged wall cloud as it approached and greeny brown colour behind that,

 

but not a sausage , just rain, and not really torrential Posted Image  ,just a little heavyish  what the hell does it take here.   

 

RUBBISH

 

It would take the end of the world, even then it would be touch & go!

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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted

It's looking like a quiet week ahead with no real convection at all. There is going to be very low CAPE and very high Lifted Index all week. At least I won't be able to miss anything as at school thunderstorms I don't like at all.

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted (edited)

Lovely weekend camping. Caught a fair few hefty downpours, the heaviest of which was on Saturday morning at 8am which left the field we were staying in, under a foot of water in some places!

 

Cb cell firing up over the hills...

 

Posted Image

 

Cb cell over sea with a rainbow...

 

Posted Image

 

The downpour that left us flooded in on Saturday morning... Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

EDIT: 400th post! Haha wow, that came round quick!

Edited by Convective
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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

It's looking like a quiet week ahead with no real convection at all. There is going to be very low CAPE and very high Lifted Index all week. At least I won't be able to miss anything as at school thunderstorms I don't like at all.

 

I am assuming you mean for your area as tomorrow looking quite promising for areas such as  East Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, North and East Midlands along with eastern parts of East Anglia. If the current GFS 12z is correct for CAPE then I would imagine thunderstorms would be a little more active than today in the aforementioned areas, with the Humber possibly the sweet spot.

 

There looks to be a good crossover again of decent shear so any storms in this area would have a chance of sustaining themselves. Areas of wind convergence may provide focal points for convection which could bring torrential rain and small hail.

 

We will see how things look in the morning though.

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