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September forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition


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14c please.

 

 

Pure luck rather than science if I get anywhere near, no studying involved, been concentrating more on teleconnective issues wrt the forthcoming winter rather than current model output / met monthly forecasts.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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13.3 to the 1st. (-1.6 anomoly) - Not going to last however.

Min today of 12.0 and max looks to be around 21.5. Using Met forecasts out to 5 days would give.

2nd 15.0 (16.75)

3rd 15.3 (15.9)

4th 16.0 (18.0)

5th 16.0 (15.9)

6th 15.6 (13.9)

After that the GFS 0Z ensemble mean would have a trend down to around 14.1- 14.2 mid month which would be pretty close to the 61-90 average to mid month.

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15.0 the the 2nd

Min 12.7 today and max likely 23. Taking met forecasts to 5 days and GFS 0z ensemble mean after that gives3rd 15.9 (17.6)4th 16.5 (18.3)5th 16.5 (16.5)6th 15.9 (12.8 )7th 15.5 (13.5)After that there is a very slow decline on the GFS ensemble mean towards 15th -18th around 15.2 to 15.1 - which would be a +1.0 anomoly. So much warmer set of ensembles than 1 day ago.
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