September forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition

[SomeLikeItHot]

Looks like another bust for the GFS, with maxima generally in the mid to high teens today across the CET area.

 

Looks like a max of around low 18  think, so around 15 for the day. To be fair though the Met office were also forecasting 2 degrees warmer maxes today even as recently as this morning.

 

Looks like it will go to 13.8 today - but perhaps only just. Only the flipside though any sharp cooling off at the end of month doesn't seem likely now.

[The PIT]

No change for Sunny Sheffield still 13.2C yesterdays cloud kept a lid on the Max temp.

[TonyH]

Here's hoping. If we saw daily records broken it would be a real shame.

Why would it?

[DAVID SNOW]

And so the climb begins.....

 

13.7 to the 22nd.

 

13.8 to the 23rd.

[Summer Sun]

Just 0.1c below the anomaly now every chance of finishing above average

 

Its about time we are seeing a run of above average months after 6 months in a row that were below average

Edited September 24, 2013 by Summer Sun

[DAVID SNOW]

Just 0.1c below the anomaly now every chance of finishing above average

 

Its about time we are seeing a run of above average months after 6 months in a row that were below average

 

14.3 could be the final figure this month(including a 0.2 downward correction)

[Summer Sun]

14.3 could be the final figure this month(including a 0.2 downward correction)

 

Which would make it 0.4c above the anomaly if I'm correct

[Lettucing Gutted]

14.3 could be the final figure this month(including a 0.2 downward correction)

Goodbye September 2001 hello September 2003. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Which would make it 0.4c above the anomaly if I'm correct

 

14.3 would be 0.3C above the 81-10 average (14.0), 0.7C above the 61-90 average (13.6), 0.8C above the 1901-2000 average (13.5) and 1.0C above the average of the entire series (13.3).

[Summer Sun]

14.3 would be 0.3C above the 81-10 average (14.0), 0.7C above the 61-90 average (13.6), 0.8C above the 1901-2000 average (13.5) and 1.0C above the average of the entire series (13.3).

 

Thanks was going by the anomaly on the CET page which is 0.1 below atm which is 13.9

 

Anyone who thought this month would be below normal after the cooler spell mid month could be left bitterly disappointed its almost odds on now for the CET to finish above normal

Edited September 24, 2013 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

Thanks was going by the anomaly on the CET page which is 0.1 below atm which is 13.9

 

Do the Met Office still use the 61-90 average? 13.9C could be the mean of September 1st to 23rd, based of the 61-90 data, which would then fall gradually to 13.6C by months end.

[Summer Sun]

Do the Met Office still use the 61-90 average? 13.9C could be the mean of September 1st to 23rd, based of the 61-90 data, which would then fall gradually to 13.6C by months end.

 

Looks like they do on the CET page yes

 

Note that anomalies quoted here are w.r.t. the period 1961-1990. This is the current standard period of reference for climatological data as recommended by the WMO (World Met. Organisation).

[SomeLikeItHot]

14.3 could be the final figure this month(including a 0.2 downward correction)

Unlikely. It will stay on 13.8 tomorrow. and then would need to average 17.18 for the last 6 days which seems unlikely as the next few days look slightly cooler than the last few. 14.2-14.3 before corrections is possible though

[Relativistic]

Why would it?

Depends actually. If they were cold daily records then it would be fine, but warm ones? No thank you.For me, the colder the better at this time of year! Edited September 24, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[SomeLikeItHot]

Do the Met Office still use the 61-90 average? 13.9C could be the mean of September 1st to 23rd, based of the 61-90 data, which would then fall gradually to 13.6C by months end.

 

Yes that's correct. The daily average (61-90) at this time of year (last 7 days of sept) is 12.6. which would bring it down from 13.9  to 13.6.

[DAVID SNOW]

Yes that's correct. The daily average (61-90) at this time of year (last 7 days of sept) is 12.6. which would bring it down from 13.9  to 13.6.

 

 

I do wonder when the MO will get around to using more up to date averages, considering this is now 2013 and not 1961............

[SomeLikeItHot]

Just quickly as I am out again today.

 

Yesterday daily average was about 15.6 keeping the month average at 13.8, todays min looks like around 12.3.  On that basis current met forecasts for 5 days + gfs  would see the next 6 days as averaging between 15.5 - 14.0 taking the end of month to 14.0 or perhaps to close to 14.1 before corrections. 

[Harve]

I do wonder when the MO will get around to using more up to date averages, considering this is now 2013 and not 1961............

'Up-to-date average' seems like an oxymoron to me. Surely the most meaningful averages are those that encompass as long a time period as possible?Given that, if they insist on using only 30 years then I'm not sure why it's 61-90 they've chosen.

[March Blizzard]

'Up-to-date average' seems like an oxymoron to me. Surely the most meaningful averages are those that encompass as long a time period as possible?Given that, if they insist on using only 30 years then I'm not sure why it's 61-90 they've chosen.

Don't they argue that it is the 61-90 averages that the WMO "recommend"?

[DAVID SNOW]

Unlikely. It will stay on 13.8 tomorrow. and then would need to average 17.18 for the last 6 days which seems unlikely as the next few days look slightly cooler than the last few. 14.2-14.3 before corrections is possible though

 

Up to 13.9 to the 24th.

[Methuselah]

Don't they argue that it is the 61-90 averages that the WMO "recommend"?

Well, if everyone used whatever average they liked, we'd make even less sense of it all than we do now...

[March Blizzard]

Well, if everyone used whatever average they liked, we'd make even less sense of it all than we do now...

I don't disagree!

[Isolated Frost]

13c to the 24th here, 0.1c below the 81-10 average. Looks like turning milder than average in the end...

[The PIT]

13.3C here after a nice day yesterday. Expect no change for tomorrow morning due to suppressed max and it seems to cooling down steadily tonight.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Don't they argue that it is the 61-90 averages that the WMO "recommend"?

 

They do. The question is why do the WMO recommend 61-90 and not some longer average? Possibly there aren't good global records for earlier periods? I would have thought something like the 20 century average would have been a better period to use.