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South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 13th August 2013>


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    As per usual, the Triangle will miss any storms!Posted Image Posted Image 

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    Actually I think that the METO applied caution and always suggested that there was a chance of unsettled weather, temporarily, in parts of England and Wales right back at the start of the week - and it was clear from the computer models at the time that this was possible as a shortwave, disrupting SE towards southern Britain became to come under the radar.

     

     The overall pattern looked rather more optimistic back then than reality now suggests, but a straightforward blanket dry and warm weekend was never a given, or stated to be one. All that has simply happened is that this possibility of showers has increased and intensified, in line with the sort of micro developments that can happen in this country.  Its not the first time it has happened and it won't be the last time either.

     

    So I don't think it is a case of being forgiving at all - it is simply down to how one wants to choose to interpret the predictions. Especially with a Bank Holiday at stake. Afterall, as stated, the chances of showers was picked up as the models began to move into a reliable time period so it shouldn't be a total surprise...

     

    hi tam

     

    i think too much notice was taken of fi charts posted in the mod thread

     

    posted a while back i was not convinced of the heatwave and the fax charts picked

     

    the unsettled weather as soon as it came into range

     

    fi is after 120 and its always safe to keep to that to avoid disappointment

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    As per usual, the Triangle will miss any storms!Posted Image Posted Image 

     

    All models are showing north easterlies beyond day 6, I'm am struggling to withhold my excitementPosted Image

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: North Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Summer storms, winter snow.
  • Location: North Kent

    Evening all,

     

    Street lights are on. Solar lights just starting to come on. And it's not long after 8. What a difference to two months ago!

     

    All I can say about today is.......wet. Finally stopped raining around 3, and a very few glimmers of sunshine in the hours after that. Weather station showing just under half an inch of rain fell today. So this has been the wettest day for quite some time, that's for sure. I know it's a bit of a cliché during dry summers, but the garden really does need it.

     

    MetO saying a max of 29° tomorrow in their London/SE forecast.....Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    EDIT: Sorry, John, just seen you're also mentioning those sorts of temps for tomorrow too. I feel slightly more confident about them now! Posted Image

    Edited by Anvils in the Sky
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    Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

    I only do the ironing if it's raining. So I got through a huge pile of it today.

     

    Then got soaked looking for the cat who's been missing a few days — crawling through dripping undergrowth calling "Fluffy!"

     

    Didn't find him. But then he walks in an hour later dry as a bone and eats his dinner. What you'd call a bummer of a day. Still glad the cat's back.

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    Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)

    hi tam

     

    i think too much notice was taken of fi charts posted in the mod thread

     

    posted a while back i was not convinced of the heatwave and the fax charts picked

     

    the unsettled weather as soon as it came into range

     

    fi is after 120 and its always safe to keep to that to avoid disappointment

     

     

    Looking back on the thread it is worth pointing out your post re Sunday night's fax charts didn't pick up todays rain which by my calculation means the error was between 72 and  96 hours. In fairness to the Met Office it seems Monday nights fax charts did pick up the change while I am pretty sure the GFS didn't until the day before which is a plus mark for UKMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    Evening all,

     

    Street lights are on. Solar lights just starting to come on. And it's not long after 8. What a difference to two months ago!

     

    All I can say about today is.......wet. Finally stopped raining around 3, and a very few glimmers of sunshine in the hours after that. Weather station showing just under half an inch of rain fell today. So this has been the wettest day for quite some time, that's for sure. I know it's a bit of a cliché during dry summers, but the garden really does need it.

     

    MetO saying a max of 29° tomorrow in their London/SE forecast.....Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    EDIT: Sorry, John, just seen you're also mentioning those sorts of temps for tomorrow too. I feel slightly more confident about them now! Posted Image

     

    Evening all,

     

    Street lights are on. Solar lights just starting to come on. And it's not long after 8. What a difference to two months ago!

     

    All I can say about today is.......wet. Finally stopped raining around 3, and a very few glimmers of sunshine in the hours after that. Weather station showing just under half an inch of rain fell today. So this has been the wettest day for quite some time, that's for sure. I know it's a bit of a cliché during dry summers, but the garden really does need it.

     

    MetO saying a max of 29° tomorrow in their London/SE forecast.....Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    EDIT: Sorry, John, just seen you're also mentioning those sorts of temps for tomorrow too. I feel slightly more confident about them now! Posted Image

    hi anvil

     

    no problem mate

     

    shame about the rest of the fax charts

     

    fwiw i am still not certain about sunday

     

    theres a possibilty the low predicted could be further south

     

    i hope the charts resolve that better tomorrow Posted Image

     

    edit

     

    why do i keep getting what i am replying to twice?

    Edited by john pike
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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

     

    hi tam

     

    i think too much notice was taken of fi charts posted in the mod thread

     

    posted a while back i was not convinced of the heatwave and the fax charts picked

     

    the unsettled weather as soon as it came into range

     

    fi is after 120 and its always safe to keep to that to avoid disappointment

     

     

    Looking back on the thread it is worth pointing out your post re Sunday night's fax charts didn't pick up todays rain which by my calculation means the error was between 72 and  96 hours. In fairness to the Met Office it seems Monday nights fax charts did pick up the change while I am pretty sure the GFS didn't until the day before which is a plus mark for UKMO.

     

     

    hi kentish

     

    yeh about right but i mean the heatwave not the local conditions

     

    problem with gfs which people follow in fi it shows no troughs etc

     

    thats why ukmo is normally the most reliable source

     

    mind saying that most charts are prone to errors

     

    thats what keeps us coming back as it would be a tad boring if they were always right

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    Posted
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London

    In my bit of n/w London, there's been rain on and off all day, after fairly heavy rain for a couple of hours overnight.

     

    It also got dark depressingly early because of the heavy cloud.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
  • Location: Bromley, Kent

    Hello all.

     

    We all know the charts love to tease us and here is another example. Can't really believe anything when there is a threat of incursions and troughs. Chin up peeps. It's been a

     

    fabulous summer and now we are getting typically British weather. Hey ho Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    Hello all.

     

    We all know the charts love to tease us and here is another example. Can't really believe anything when there is a threat of incursions and troughs. Chin up peeps. It's been a

     

    fabulous summer and now we are getting typically British weather. Hey ho Posted Image

    hi jan

     

    i always say

     

    the charts do not control the weather

     

    the people i feel sorry for are the people who may have booked

     

    to go away in the uk on hearing the press releases recently

     

    lets hope sunday and monday make up for saturday

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    Posted
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
  • Location: Bromley, Kent

    Hello john,

     

    Yes i agree, but it's a bank holiday..........we should all know by now how temperamental they are Posted Image

     

    Any luck on finding your perfect house yet? x

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    Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk

    As per usual, the Triangle will miss any storms!Posted Image Posted Image 

     Yeah, but I'm at a flipping dog show on Saturday...any chance I could get the show committee to move it to Friday? :D  Waterproofs and Khyam already in the van Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    hi cp

     

    i think i will keep that between us then Posted Image

     

    heres what ecm show for sunday lunchtime

     

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

     

    rain or no rain

     

    that is the question

     

    monday lunchtime

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

    looks ok for now Posted Image

    Edited by john pike
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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    Hello john,

     

    Yes i agree, but it's a bank holiday..........we should all know by now how temperamental they are Posted Image

     

    Any luck on finding your perfect house yet? x

     

    hi jan

     

    going back on saturday for a week

     

    for round 2

     

    got a couple to look at and i will let you know if anything happensPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    Posted Image

    monday

     

    a slightly breezy north east flow

     

    looks dry with sunny intervals

     

    poss cloudy in the east north east but even there there should still be some sun

     

    temps around 23-24 degrees

     

    so at present very useable weather Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Twickenham
  • Location: Twickenham

    Weird, second shower in the last hour with absolutely no cloud overhead and no obvious culprit anywhere to be seen (there's a near full moon).  I am fully aware of the "detached precipitation" phenomena but this is strangest example I have ever seen, the only cloud is the odd patch of very well fragmented alto-cumulus, there's no wind and it's not even close to being overhead!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London

    Local BBC forecast has got possibly 30C for places in the London area tomorrow, wet for Saturday and a mix of sunshine and cloud Sunday and Monday. 

     

    National forecast has 26 for London, heavy rain including thundery stuff for Saturday and then quiet for Sunday and Monday.

     

    Don't they work from the same data?

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    Posted
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London

    Weird, second shower in the last hour with absolutely no cloud overhead and no obvious culprit anywhere to be seen (there's a near full moon).  I am fully aware of the "detached precipitation" phenomena but this is strangest example I have ever seen, the only cloud is the odd patch of very well fragmented alto-cumulus, there's no wind and it's not even close to being overhead!

    The IR satellite image has a tiny bit of thin cloud over you, but you're right, it's odd.

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    Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

    Posted Image

    tuesday

     

    north westerly flow

     

    should stay dry

     

    temps around 22-24 degrees

     

    front to our north west may give some late afternoon showers but too far away to be certain of that yet

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    Posted
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    hi tam

     

    i think too much notice was taken of fi charts posted in the mod thread

     

    posted a while back i was not convinced of the heatwave and the fax charts picked

     

    the unsettled weather as soon as it came into range

     

    fi is after 120 and its always safe to keep to that to avoid disappointment

    I think too many people read what they wanted to read JohnPosted Image  There were enough caveats mentioned by enough people to provide a realistic enough interpretationPosted Image

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