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Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13


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Another increasingly warm to hot week is coming up next week as the summer warmth continues especially in the south

 

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Night time temperatures also hold up very well in the SE with the mid to high teens widely in the SE

 

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Some frosts may occur in rural areas in the north later next week if conditions were right looking at those temperature

 

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GFS 12z continues to build the heat early next week I wouldn't rule out 30c getting hit in the south on Wednesday and or Thursday either

 

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By Friday GFS continues to show low temperatures UK wide

 

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Another corker from ECM with it showing things becoming hot and humid in the south later next week

 

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It could also trigger some thunderstorms looking at the pressure

 

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ECM once again ends on a warm note for all with the north more settled than the south

 

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All in all the summer warmth continues

 

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looks like an inplausible outlier.... until you see the latest anomalies...

 

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...and bloody hell! what a flip around from a trough controling our weather to something akin to supporting the ecm! .... ok... now this is only 1 run, more are needed before they can be taken seriously... but maybe its the first indication of something like this evolving... tbh i hope it does, not just to prolong the more summery weather, but because a cut off low, held in place by a ridge to our north linking a strong scandi high and the azh is unusual.

 

:)

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looks like an inplausible outlier.... until you see the latest anomalies...

 

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...and bloody hell! what a flip around from a trough controling our weather to something akin to supporting the ecm! .... ok... now this is only 1 run, more are needed before they can be taken seriously... but maybe its the first indication of something like this evolving... tbh i hope it does, not just to prolong the more summery weather, but because a cut off low, held in place by a ridge to our north linking a strong scandi high and the azh is unusual.

 

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see my earlier post re how reliable they seem?

 

and to clarify that post, it is discussing the probabilities in the 6-15 day time scales NOT the 1-5 day scale.

Edited by johnholmes
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GEM, looking more ECM-like this evening, and while it stays warm in England and Wales, we could see a fair amount of wet weather accompanying the low, which is seen to get Stuck' to Irelands south west. Scotland could see very warm temperatures for a time too,

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for comparison purposes, the gfs at 174 is to the right. Quite a difference. A heatwave, or autumn in all her glory..you choose.

Edited by draztik
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After seeing the ECM and GEM this evening, i think its now only a matter of time before the GFS changes its tune. It is now alone, with its cooler setup (after midweek, that is)

Edited by draztik
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Another very warm run from ECM this evening

 

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There will be some rain around at the end of the week (possibly thundery in places) but once high pressure drifts back in during the weekend it will begin to turn drier from the north

 

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All in all the extended summer warmth looks the form horse again this evening no let up in sight currently long may it continue

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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see my earlier post re how reliable they seem?

 

and to clarify that post, it is discussing the probabilities in the 6-15 day time scales NOT the 1-5 day scale.

 

cant, cant read pdf :(

 

yeah i understand its not looking like a july heatwave, itll be september! i understand itll need more runs to agree before confidence can rise, im just thinking that isnt it a possibility that todays anoms have picked up on a radically different pattern beyond 6 days? and subsequent runs MIGHT confirm this?

 

i hope so, im really liking the ecm atm, itll provide some interesting weather.

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Here is the latest on the models from Gibby

 

Good evening. Here is just a short version of my normal report tonight.

 

All models show a ridge over the UK at the moment declining towards the South over the next 3-4 days as weak fronts cross the North. Cloud and patchy rain will affect the North over the next few days while the South becomes increasingly warm and bright with some very warm sunshine in the SE. By midweek pressure will be falling steadily everywhere and a trough or a Low centre will inhabit the UK by the end of the week with rain at times and cooler temperatures likely for all by Friday.

 

GFS then shows pressure rising again next weekend with a drier spell when just very scattered showers are likely but a lot of fine and bright weather too. The trend towards High pressure continues in the latter half of the run with High pressure sitting over the UK with subsequent dry, warm and settled conditions with light winds and sunny spells by day and clear, cool and misty nights.

 

The GFS Ensembles show the warm spell this week dissolving at the end of the week to a cooler and more unsettled phase with rain at times. Later in the run the rain becomes more scarce again as High pressure returns close to our shores with temperatures still bordering the warm side of average for most.

 

The Jet Stream shows quite a turbulent pattern tonight with the flow dipping and ridging North and South over the two weeks in the vicinity of the UK or to the North.

 

UKMO tonight shows Low pressure having moved South of the UK late next week with showers and rain at times becoming increasingly confined to Southern areas for the weekend.

 

GEM develops an ECM'esque type solution tonight with a deep Low developing over Ireland later in the week and settling SW of Britain with some rather unsettled and showery weather for most and some longer spells at times especially towards the SW.

 

NAVGEM too shows Low pressure developing over the UK late in the week and encircling the UK for the weekend with rain or showers for all and cooler temperatures.

 

ECM shows Low pressure dominating too later in the week and weekend eventually settling to the South of the UK with the driest and brightest conditions transferring to the North of the UK late in the period.

 

In Summary tonight there is still some indecision shown on the events following the midweek trough. There has been some hardening of attitude supporting a rather deeper Low pressure feature later this week from ECM, NAVGEM and GEM in particular while GFS on the other side of the fence GFS strives to bring High pressure back in the second half of the run.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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cant, cant read pdf Posted Image

 

yeah i understand its not looking like a july heatwave, itll be september! i understand itll need more runs to agree before confidence can rise, im just thinking that isnt it a possibility that todays anoms have picked up on a radically different pattern beyond 6 days? and subsequent runs MIGHT confirm this?

 

i hope so, im really liking the ecm atm, itll provide some interesting weather.

 

I'll post the text if that helps mushy when I get up tomorrow

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Thanks Lorenzo.

 

Looks like you will be taking over GP's job during the Autumn/Winter months here on the forum !  Your input/thoughts will be greatly appreciated, as others..

Edited by Polar Maritime
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As lorenzo posts, this coninuing theme of trough disruption, should it continue, bodes well for an interesting winter period. In the meantime, the energy to the sw is again the winner and gfs op seems as incapable of modelling split flow energy as it was last winter. Ecm again leading the way although one needs to know when the fi charts are implausible and just take the overall lw pattern and trend into account.

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Thanks Lorenzo. Looks like you will be taking over GP's job during the Autumn/Winter months here on the forum !  Your input/thoughts will be greatly appreciated, as others..

Nice summary Lorenzo , off topic but has GP left the forum for good ? Shame the effort and work he put into the winter thread should be applauded
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After a very dry week in the South. The ECM brings some heavy rain moving up from the South during the course of Friday.

 

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Feeling quite a lot cooler in the rain with highs of only 17c in London on Friday. A degree or so cooler in rural areas.

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Edited by No balls like Snow Balls
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Nice summary Lorenzo , off topic but has GP left the forum for good ? Shame the effort and work he put into the winter thread should be applauded

 

GP is now working professionally as a seasonal forecaster and as such, cannot share his thoughts on here. i expect he is still in touch with some on NW and thought it might be interesting if it were feasible to see the basic tenets of his forecasts post season.  i wonder if his summer thoughts stood up to any scrutiny ? many were clearly impressed by his past few winter forecasts though the summer ones were a bit less accurate. all part of the LRF debate.

 

oh and mushy, the meteo.psu anomoly chart is bound to reflect the op if the op looks like an outlier cos its based purely on the op!

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Farewell summer, you certainly were fab, certainly an improvement on the last six. Posted Image

Please make sure you return next June

 

you might be abit premature there m8y!

 

like the winter that wouldnt go away (last spring) this summer appears to be determined to make up for its earlier losses as all models now agree on thursdays breakdown becoming a temporary blip as the associated low loses its impact and gets shunted down into biscay due to the azh ridging northeastwards and linking with (this high thats drifted east) , becoming a true 'cut off low'. this will push up some very warm humid air off the continent IF things transpire as predicted this morning.

 

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now this chart isnt exactly the same, but the biscay low and high in the right place to our northeast brought us a similar flow to the one currently predicted...

 

... and this chart from sep 15th 1973 gave us one on the best thunderstorms i can ever remember as a line of them trundled up the country.... repeat performance? well only if the associated breakdown is similar, but one to watch..

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oh and mushy, the meteo.psu anomoly chart is bound to reflect the op if the op looks like an outlier cos its based purely on the op!

 

.... but if john uses it, its good enough for me! his research came up with some impressive results, so im taking closer eye on them (obviously still learning )

 

and actually, i dont get it, because the anom and op often vary...

Edited by mushymanrob
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Here's the potential I'm looking at for next week:Warming up for many central, southern and eastern areas early next week. Cooler and at times more unsettled for northern and western areas.

Potential warm plume for eastern/south eastern areas later in the week with low pressure bringing cooler and mo
re unsettled conditions elsewhere. Potential for some thundery downpours as low pressure across western areas comes up against the warm and humid air over eastern/south eastern areas, and/or thundery showers moving up from France to affect some areas.

Likely cooler and more unsettled for the UK as a whole thereafter.

Potential for low pressure to drag down enough cold air late in the week for early season rural frosts in northern areas and perhaps to turn some showers wintry over the top of the Scottish mountains.

 

I've mentioned the above potential on my Facebook page so, fingers crossed! Posted Image 

 

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