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Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13


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T240 looks wet and windy but the chances of it happening are probably slim

 

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Exciting weather at last!

I enjoy Spring weather in Spring.

Summer weather in Summer.

Autumn weather in Autumn.

Winter weather in Winter.

All very straight forward really. :-D

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Good thing this is only at T240 and likely to be rather wrong

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Well ,we are into Autumn by then,and that chart would not be out of place in Autumn, but as you rightly say , that chart is unlikely to verify!!

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T240 looks wet and windy but the chances of it happening are probably slim

 

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That chart is very sweet eye candy for me Posted Image

Output for over the Balearics for very hot and sultry weather being over ridden by colder uppers. That is the recipe for some stonker style thunderstorms!! So optimistic and can't wait a second longer!

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So does this change mean scotland won't get it so bad?

Hi Basford lad, not sure anyone has replied to you, I think it is looking a bit better for the next 7 days but it depends where you are in Scotland, the far north still look quite unsettled at the weekend but southern parts may get away with just a few showers or maybe a more organised front, but nice weather between the showers

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Every time I visit this thread we seem to be on the verge of another heat wave/hot spell. Not one has materialised...

 

No one has mentioned a heatwave. The ECM has temperatures becoming very warm for a time. Nothing hot or remotely heatwave territory.

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No one has mentioned a heatwave. The ECM has temperatures becoming very warm for a time. Nothing hot or remotely heatwave territory.

By the way some members post,, it may look like a heatwave to someone who is new to weather watching!  Anyway changeable for all from the weekend onwards,with normal like early Autumn conditions, southeast Britain fairing best, that's my take on the latest modelwatching....Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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Hi Basford lad, not sure anyone has replied to you, I think it is looking a bit better for the next 7 days but it depends where you are in Scotland, the far north still look quite unsettled at the weekend but southern parts may get away with just a few showers or maybe a more organised front, but nice weather between the showers

 

Thanks for your reply Posted Image, will be in southern scotland.  going away on the saturday so i hope it holds

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Every time I visit this thread we seem to be on the verge of another heat wave/hot spell. Not one has materialised...

Check in again any time between late November and early March and you'll discover that we're on the verge of a record-breaking cold spell.
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HI GUYS.  SORRY ABOUT THE BROKEN LINK LAST NIGHT.  HERE IS THE ALL BALANCED DAILY MODDEL OUTPUT REVIEW BY GIBBY. 

ISSUED AT 20:00 ON TUESDAY AUGUST 27TH 2013

 

Good evening. Here is tonight's report from the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Tuesday August 27th 2013.

 

All models show a ridge of High pressure over the UK tonight and tomorrow with light winds, fair weather with little chance of rain for all areas. Through Thursday and Friday the ridge slips away South for a time as a couple of fronts move SE across the UK with some rain at times for the North. The South will see very little rain from the first front on Thursday night but may see a little more on Friday night as they eventually clear the SE. The weekend then sees High pressure ridging back across the UK with fine but cooler and fresher conditions for many and the chance of scattered showers in the more windy North. It will be chilly at night countrywide with some mist and fog patches.

 

GFS shows next week as gradually turning more unsettled as Low pressure to the North work their way further South towards Scotland with rainfall in the North becoming more frequent in the South too later in the week. The latter part of the run shows changeable weather continuing with the remains of an ex-tropical storm finding it's way across the Atlantic to the UK at the end of the run with some heavy rain and strong winds for all.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to show a sharp dip in temperatures at the weekend before a recovery to more average values looks likely to be achieved for the rest of the run. Rainfall gradually becomes more frequent for many though no great amounts are indicated for the South.

 

The Jet Stream currently North of the UK sinks SE over NE Britain and the North Sea at the weekend before tilting more West to East but at a lower latitude over the Atlantic on a crash course for the UK.

 

UKMO tonight shows falling pressure on Monday as a front approaches from the West in a steadily increasing West wind. After a dry and bright start cloud and rain will likely be arriving from the West later in the day.

 

GEM shows a fresh Westerly flow over all areas early next week with High pressure not far from the South while Low pressure remains to the North of the UK. The fresh breeze will carry rain at times over the North while the South sees more cloudy conditions at times. Late in the week and at the end of the run winds veer to the NW with brighter skies but rather cool conditions especially at night but staying largely dry away from a showery North and Northeast.

 

NAVGEM tonight shows a NW flow next weekend with cooler conditions than of late especially in the North. Some rain or showers are possible in the North while Southern UK stays mostly dry if rather cloudy at times close to High pressure to the SW.

 

ECM shows High pressure to the SW of England next Monday with a West to Northwest flow over the UK. The weather would still be mostly dry across the UK but the North could be cloudier at times with a little rain and a stiff Westerly breeze. Later in the week a depression to the NW sinks south across the UK bringing a mix of sunshine and showers to all with some longer outbreaks of rain and temperatures close to average.

 

In Summary there is a slow trend for gradually more changeable conditions to extend South across the UK next week. Before that the weather remains mostly dry in the South with any rain more likely over the North with a short but notable toe in the water taste of Autumn for all areas for a few days at the weekend. It may be another week to 10 days before any notable changes in the weather in the way of rainfall reaches Southern Britain though.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

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the ECM 12z mean has next week very much a tale of two halves. The first half sees high pressure centred to the SW of the UK with warm/very warm westerlies affecting most parts but the warmest sunniest conditions to be found in the east.

 

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Wednesday looks to have a SE/NW split with the warmth hanging on for longest in the south east with cooler air likely to spread south. Thursday and Friday are cooler for all as winds turn more northwesterly and it would also turn more unsettled from the north.

 

Posted Image

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boy that ecm T240 mean (and spread) has a autumnal look about it - would be fab to see that lw pattern in winter.. it isnt supported by the naefs anomolys or mean although the spreads on naefs do show a cluster of members showing a trough over the uk.  all to be revealed although the 12z ecm suite does show low heights just ne of the uk is very strongly supported at day 10.  tamara pointed out yesterday that the ecm is prone to skewing its entire suite in the wrong direction so not a certainty as yet.

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Models are suggesting a pattern change as we move into September - the key trigger being the movement of the jet on a more NW-SE axis and a more meridional flow taking shape over the mid atlantic.

 

The net result increasingly cooler conditions for all, with the windiest and wettest conditions reserved for the NW quarter.

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hey guys i c gibby's website link isn't working again when i tried from my mobile. I can't work out y when i paste the link it doesn't work. Can 1 of guys edit my post and repost the link. Thanks.

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Posted Image

 

the ECM ensembles for Glasgow illustrate the trend towards a cooler period, especially for the North. With average/below average temp values and rainfall amounts slightly above the average as we move into Sept.

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Posted Image

 

the ECM ensembles for Glasgow illustrate the trend towards a cooler period, especially for the North. With average/below average temp values and rainfall amounts slightly above the average as we move into Sept.

Just for balance, where as the Ensembles for the southern half of the country suggest very little rainfall till at least the 5th September and apart from this weekend, temperatures in the low 20s.

Edited by Blizzards
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Unfortunately i don't have access to those charts for the south, wish i did! Tho the updated eps (ecm) model refutes what you describe, with cooler conditions and rain for the south before the 5th.

Edited by draztik
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Unfortunately i don't have access to those charts for the south, wish i did! Tho the updated eps (ecm) model refutes what you describe, with cooler conditions and rain for the south before the 5th.

So what about this then? http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

 

Barely any rain till the 5th, and as I say a cooler blip this weekend then temps generally around 20c.

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So around average, then? Great.

as for the updated gfs 18z, a very mobile Atlantic is seen jumping into gear, with ensemble support for cooler temps...

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Edited by draztik
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So around average, then? Great.

as for the updated gfs 18z, a very mobile Atlantic is seen jumping into gear, with ensemble support for cooler temps...

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Yep, Id agree average wise with temperatures. Still very nice out there. Still dont see where that rainfall is coming from a 'mobile' atlantic. Would such frequent but more brief spells of rain. Doesnt look like much to me. Each to their own with interpretation though.

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Never mind guys, I'm sure that none of those outputs will be right...Posted Image

 

A genuine question: if the CFS is useful tool 'when read correctly', why haven't seasonal forecasts noticeably improved since its inception? 

 

exactly what i thought....

 

hmm... so we get under some decent uppers next mon/tues, as a high ridges in . only problem i see is that the airflow is quite brisk and off the atlantic, so how warm it gets will depend upon cloud cover and your locations disposition dealing with cloudy westerlies. so the south and east look the best places for the sunniest and highest temps. so dont look at the charts with high pressure and think 'sunshine', it looks to me likely to be a dirty high for most.

 

the runs are now showing pretty normal late summer/early autumn conditions, all eyes west.

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