Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[mushymanrob]

nothing to add to whats been posted , things are still on track for a pressure rise of some form next week after a rather more unsettled several days. the gfs 00z is a stonker for late summer sun/heat, but thats fi... deep fi... still watching developments with cautious interest, next week is expected to be nice, the only question really is how nice!

 

personally, id prefer it warmer, more southerly based, if its fresher, cooler then ill be dogged by morning dew...i hate morning dew , its wetter then rain. (as it hangs as globules on the grass...rain runs through)

[TonyH]

Pretty though

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean continues to firm up on a warm and anticyclonic spell developing from early next week which could persist into september. In the short term, gradually becoming warmer and more humid this week as we draw tropical maritime air around the top of the azores anticyclone, turning fine for a time in the southeastern half of england but more unsettled further northwest, the Tm air gets mixed out this weekend as a depression tracks east across the far north of the uk with a cooler oceanic airflow and unsettled conditions for all areas for a time but then just look at the dramatic improvement in the mean from early next week, high pressure looks like building in strongly and if the mean is right, the high could become centred to the east enabling very warm continental air to drift up into the south. It now looks like the settled and warmer trend is locked in and although the Bank Holiday weekend is still out of range, it looks increasingly like we will be enjoying a very summery spell through the last third of august.

[The Northern Ramper]

The good news is the ECM is agreeing with the Gfs more or less up to Day 8.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z control run is DRAMATIC.... we get a very hot & sultry plume and T-Storms but then we finish with a Northerly..

[tempestwatch]

The GEFS 00z control run is DRAMATIC.... we get a very hot & sultry plume and T-Storms but then we finish with a Northerly..

We would be praying for that setup come December/January. Could be well chilly if this comes to fruition.

Edited August 13, 2013 by tempestwatch

[shedhead]

Just looked back at my post from this time yesterday and little appears to have changed across the intervening 24hrs. Once again the potential build of pressure next week is still there on GFS and remains worthy of note, but the short to medium term looks set to become increasingly unsettled, with temperatures initially close to or a little above average before falling back to near or a little below average across the weekend. 

 

After T+168hr the big two start to diverge, with GFS going for a fairly robust rise of pressure from the south by T+192hrs...

 

 

 

 

Whilst ECM says a very firm NO, slipping the HP south and allow Atlantic fronts to push east across all areas.

 

 

 

 

 

Clearly UKMO does not extend that far, but looking at it's 144hr I'd suggest the likely direction thereafter would be rather more towards the ECM evolution than GFS.

 

 

So as I said the potential warm/hot spell is worthy of note at this point, but it still remains a very long way from guaranteed.

Edited August 13, 2013 by shedhead

[Frank Trough]

 

Just looked back at my post from this time yesterday and little appears to have changed across the intervening 24hrs. Once again the potential build of pressure next week is still there on GFS and remains worthy of note, but the short to medium term looks set to become increasingly unsettled, with temperatures initially close to or a little above average before falling back to near or a little below average across the weekend. 

 

After T+168hr the big two start to diverge, with GFS going for a fairly robust rise of pressure from the south by T+192hrs...

 

 

 

 

Whilst ECM says a very firm NO, slipping the HP south and allow Atlantic fronts to push east across all areas.

 

 

 

 

 

Clearly UKMO does not extend that far, but looking at it's 144hr I'd suggest the likely direction thereafter would be rather more towards the ECM evolution than GFS.

 

 

So as I said the potential warm/hot spell is worthy of note at this point, but it still remains a very long way from guaranteed.

 

 

thing is, i'm not sure that's this morning's ECM, is it? On metoeciel this morning's 00Z also shows a pressure rise (*EDIT* the chart in your post has updated now?! does it do that automatically? how clever)

 

 

 

 

So i'm not sure about this firm "NO" at this stage.

 

There is undoubtly a trend to rising pressure after the weekend's low drifts away but we'll see...long way out.

 

FWIW the GEM at the same time frame:

 

Edited August 13, 2013 by Pharaoh Clutchstraw

[shedhead]

Good spot PC....dunno what chart that was, perhaps the 12 run I guess.  Anyway that looks a whole lot better and more encouraging, but if the ECM is to be believed it looks more like a warm, dry spell than a heatwave..

Edited August 13, 2013 by shedhead

[Captain Shortwave]

The differences really begin due to the models diverging over the area over Scandinavia (yeah that old chestnut again)

GFS at T192

 

ECM for the same time 

Again the ECM just wants to drop troughing into that region again. I find the evolution a little odd given how the frames before this show the trough clearing NE away from us only to split the trough here which then stops height rises in its tracks. 

GFS ens backs the GFS op to some degree with the mean temperature getting up to 12C for a time in the far south with the warmth more widespread than the ECM op.

Again this Scandi trough signal has popped up like during the previous settled spell. Again the question is are the models (especially the ECM) creating a red herring like last time and will ease back on the trough signal over Scandinavia.

Edited August 13, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Tamara]

thing is, i'm not sure that's this morning's ECM, is it? On metoeciel this morning's 00Z also shows a pressure rise (*EDIT* the chart in your post has updated now?! does it do that automatically? how clever)

 

 

 

 

So i'm not sure about this firm "NO" at this stage.

 

There is undoubtly a trend to rising pressure after the weekend's low drifts away but we'll see...long way out.

 

FWIW the GEM at the same time frame:

 

Yes indeed, following on from yesterday and from the charts I can see there is very good agreement in the models for a pressure rise after the weekend low. The only question in that respect is exactly where and how High pressure orientates itself in terms of determining what conditions on the ground will be like  - cloud cover, air temperature etc

 

NAEFS latest anomalies charts are yet to update, but clearly there is very good support for a settled spell of some kind to begin next week. The GFS suggests something of a heatwave, if taken at face value, but I think the ECM looks closest to the most recent height anomalies charts and therefore High pressure centred slightly further west may be closer to the mark. Time will tell.

 

In the meantime, a changeable spell for the rest of the week but fairly warm and humid. Then there is the weekend low. This has perhaps been adjusted very slightly just to the north of Scotland and a little less deep - but nonetheless it will bring rain for most this weekend and then sunshine and showers. This lasting into the start of next week before rapidly drying up, settling down and getting warmer. But how much warmer is uncertain at this time

 

The only other thing to add is that the ECM has a habit of over amplifying the jet stream in the FI period so the troughing to the NE may be slightly overdone - much as CS has rightly observed

Edited August 13, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Frosty.]

Top post again Tamara, really like your input, keep it up.

[Tamara]

Top post again Tamara, really like your input, keep it up.

Thanks, and ditto you and many others on here of course. There are always very knowledgeable people to learn from and hopefully make interesting discussions   This summer seemed hard to call to me after the exceptionally cold Spring and against the backdrop of recent summers. But I know that one or two cleverly cited a distinctively improved main part of the summer, and that has certainly come to pass and delivered in spades.

 

I think that it becomes easy to judge the current outlook against the outstanding July weather. What we have even in the more unsettled conditions is still a long way from anything we saw last summer, and with the increasing likelihood of another settled spell around the corner then it should be the perfect way to round off the official summer period

 

There is very good agreement amongst the EPS individual members for the pressure rise in the first part of next week with showers fading and becoming drier and warmer from the south west

NAEFS updated mean pressure map at approx days 9/10

 

 

And finally, some way off, but NAEFS updated height anomalies suggest further atlantic/UK mid latitude ridging in the 10 to 15 day period. This endorses the METO thinking of reasonably settled weather continuing through to the end of the month

 

Edited August 13, 2013 by Tamara Road

[shedhead]

Oh dear, just as you thought it might be safe to look it turns out to be anything but...especially for those in the north.

 

Wobble or start of a trend from the 06 GFS? Money on the former for now, but as ever time will tell.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 13, 2013 by shedhead

[Scorcher]

Oh dear, just as you thought it might be safe to look it turns out to be anything but...especially for those in the north.

 

Wobble or start of a trend from the 06 GFS? Money on the former for now, but as ever time will tell.

 

 

 

 

 

Well there's still some heat in that run, I'm not sure you'd like some of the heat and humidity it's showing, however brief it may be!

[Tamara]

Well there's still some heat in that run, I'm not sure you'd like some of the heat and humidity it's showing, however brief it may be!

I think that the more especially unsettled weather of the weekend will be relatively quick to clear early next week with southern parts of the UK drying up as early as Mon/Tues as illustrated earlier - but the process of the weather settling down nationwide is an ongoing process through next week and more especially through next weekend and onwards from there. The data as updated on the previous page does give allegiance to fronts perhaps brushing north western areas for a time through the course of next week. But that is in terms of general overview and there is little to be gained from taking individual output such as the latest GFS at face value

[Frosty.]

After the relatively cooler/fresher feel during the last few days, the days ahead will be warming up and becoming much more humid as we draw tropical maritime air around the top of the azores anticyclone but it also looks generally unsettled apart from tomorrow which looks fine for many, but then by thursday it's sunshine and heavy showers with longer spells of rain scattered across the uk, temperatures rising towards the mid 20's celsius though so at least it will be feeling more tropical. This weekend turns cooler though as the Tm air is mixed out as a depression races in from the north atlantic across the north of the uk and the airmass becomes oceanic for a few days with temps nearer 16-20c from nw to se, so the weekend is going to be a cooler unsettled blip but then pressure rising from the southwest by the start of next week once the weekend spoiler low has blown through, it's the final obstacle before the azores/atlantic anticyclone can build in without any opposition, the weather next week becoming more settled and warm with temps in the low to mid 20's celsius range, this run looks like a cool unsettled outlier overall but we still get a brief injection of continental heat towards the end of next week before low pressure swings down from the northwest in FI, I bet the gefs 06z mean will look a lot better than this mediocre run.

Edited August 13, 2013 by Frosty039

[Captain Shortwave]

Well whilst the GFS op was showing some iffy moments with the extra shortwaves. The ensembles have reinvigorated the high pressure trend beyond day 8 holding high pressure right over the UK

 

 

 

Uppers significantly better for all areas compared to the 00Z suite. The southern half of the UK has above average temperatures till the bitter end of the run (8C or higher)

The 06z run has asked more questions rather than offering a clearer solution to proceedings in my opinion.

Edited August 13, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

I'm pleased to say the Gefs 06z mean looks much better than the 6z operational run, the mean looks a lot more in tune with previous mean outputs..so we are still on track for a settled and increasingly warm outlook next week which could possibly continue for the rest of the month.

 

As for this week, tomorrow looks largely fine with broken clouds and sunny spells away from the far west where it will dull in with misty low cloud and spots of drizzle but feeling humid, in the sunnier southern, central & eastern areas, warmer and humid as tropical maritime air feeds in, more unsettled by thursday with periods of heavy rain and heavy showers with a risk of thunder but with sunny periods between the downpours and in the sunniest spots, temperatures shooting into the 25-26 celsius range, generally 22-24c but cooler/fresher and windier by the weekend with rain and showers within the circulation of a large depression pushing across the north but then warming up and drying up as high pressure builds in next week onwards.

Edited August 13, 2013 by Frosty039

[Frosty.]

The Gefs 06z control run becomes hotter and more sultry with an anticyclonic spell giving way to continental plume conditions with an increasing threat of storms breaking out with temps pushing 90F for a time and generally up in the low to mid 80's F whereas the 6z mean is more settled and warm to very warm in comparison.

Edited August 13, 2013 by Frosty039

[DTHFCJ]

I'm pleased to say the Gefs 06z mean looks much better than the 6z operational run, the mean looks a lot more in tune with previous mean outputs..so we are still on track for a settled and increasingly warm outlook next week which could possibly continue for the rest of the month.

 

As for this week, tomorrow looks largely fine with broken clouds and sunny spells away from the far west where it will dull in with misty low cloud and spots of drizzle but feeling humid, in the sunnier southern, central & eastern areas, warmer and humid as tropical maritime air feeds in, more unsettled by thursday with periods of heavy rain and heavy showers with a risk of thunder but with sunny periods between the downpours and in the sunniest spots, temperatures shooting into the 25-26 celsius range, generally 22-24c but cooler/fresher and windier by the weekend with rain and showers within the circulation of a large depression pushing across the north but then warming up and drying up as high pressure builds in next week onwards.

another top post cheers Frosty mixed to start hopefully better later,itl be nice for the kids to finish the school hols on a warm and hopefully sunny note

 

John H are we getting there

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

 

im still learning and taking on board your posts(i know you also say a few days running with them showing the same kind of picture),atm there appears to be ridging more so(ish) on the ECM?

 

also i notice you posted the other day ref to these...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

 

you mentioned "The anomaly part of the charts shows nothing of any substance near the UK, 30DM is neither here nor there",i was just curious to what 30DM means?...

thanks John

[mushymanrob]

been on here 8 years now i believe...gotta say, this summer has been the best (since at least 06) for people contributing to this thread... it often went without a post for several days in recent summers, so a big WELL DONE! to everyone whos posted here, especially the regulars, who have kept this forum alive and interesting this summer!

[Cheshire Freeze]

been on here 8 years now i believe...gotta say, this summer has been the best (since at least 06) for people contributing to this thread... it often went without a post for several days in recent summers, so a big WELL DONE! to everyone whos posted here, especially the regulars, who have kept this forum alive and interesting this summer!

 

It has left me feeling completely underwhelmed if I'm honest. It's all good and well for the people who had the insane heat then some cracking storms to cap it off but we haven't here. Just not felt motivated to post at all.

[Jax]

It has at times remained very moribund here, but there have been some scattered "moments" of clever weather.  Today is not one of them mind.

Edited August 13, 2013 by Jax

[MR EXTREMES]

indeed frosty the gem and ecm see return to heat so lets see summer out with a big bang heat storms and bbq.

and I agree mushy its been a super summer with a steady model thread rolling along nicely well done everyone.