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Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.


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Has anyone seen the amount of blackberries coming out? Looks like a bumper crop for my apple and blackberry crumble this year :D plus one of my ponies (roamed bodmin moor for 10 years) is now growing her winter coat! Autumn is coming!!

I'm probably the only horsey person out there (who also owns a business involving working outside) who loves the winter and the cold, counting down the days to sub zero temperatures, bring it on!!

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Plenty of blackberries developing here.There is something about that first early season autumnal nip in the air. Crystal clear blue skies, chilly, dewy.

loads here, not ripe yet though.

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The last exceptionally cold September was 1986 and since then the only decently cool Septembers have been 1992, 1993, 1994 and 2012.

 

 

I seem to remember a very early air frost in September 1994 in the midlands.

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Has anyone seen the amount of blackberries coming out? Looks like a bumper crop for my apple and blackberry crumble this year Posted Image

 I have a blackberry bush in my back garden and i have noticed there are quite alot this year on it and rather big ones too. Still not ripe yet -most of them have gone from green to red now, another few weeks till they turn black.

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There is something about that first early season autumnal nip in the air. Crystal clear blue skies, chilly, dewy.

 

That day is here - stepped outside for a bacca about twenty minutes ago,as is my wont, and opening the back door was like opening the fridge.

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Quite a crisp, fresh start here too. I must admit, I'm looking forward to autumn now. I enjoy summer but there's something about the atmosphere outside in autumn that I love.

I agree - this morning reminded me of autumn, and I started to think of those first frosty mornings in October.. the first genuinely chilly mornings.. when you can see your condensed breath very clearly.. it was visible this morning, but only like a faint mist above the ground, rather than the stuff that is like fog leaving your lungs!

 

And on another note, butterflies keep flying into my window.

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Based on my snow-only method that has worked well last few seasons, if Eurasia gets a snowy August/September build-up, expect a cold November- but I think we're leaning more towards a late September buildup and a more 09/10 access to cold (though not the severity, I can only imagine at this stage)...

zonal autumn for me, some good, some bad, all dependent on many factors in the next few months, and I'll be keeping an eye out for Eurasian snow cover to make advances and when it does so because that has (since the 07' shift) been exceptional at pinpointing the arrival of cold- albeit with a adjustable lag of between 2.5 and 4 months.

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Based on my snow-only method that has worked well last few seasons, if Eurasia gets a snowy August/September build-up, expect a cold November- but I think we're leaning more towards a late September buildup and a more 09/10 access to cold (though not the severity, I can only imagine at this stage)...

zonal autumn for me, some good, some bad, all dependent on many factors in the next few months, and I'll be keeping an eye out for Eurasian snow cover to make advances and when it does so because that has (since the 07' shift) been exceptional at pinpointing the arrival of cold- albeit with a adjustable lag of between 2.5 and 4 months.

 

Surely a colder Europe early on (which a larger snow coverage extent implies) would make early cold spells in the UK more likely? As given the right synoptics the cold air is there to tap into?

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What's everyone's thoughts on late autum early winter time . Will we get a white Christmas . Personally I am hoping for the cold to come early than last year around mid December to early feb. just think If we had the weather what occurred last march April in jan/ feb . Madness would prevail

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I agree - this morning reminded me of autumn, and I started to think of those first frosty mornings in October.. the first genuinely chilly mornings.. when you can see your condensed breath very clearly.. it was visible this morning, but only like a faint mist above the ground, rather than the stuff that is like fog leaving your lungs!

 

And on another note, butterflies keep flying into my window.

 

This morning reminded me of a lovely Autumn morning too . I have enjoyed some fantastic sunshine and heat this summer but I am ready for the next season now :)

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Is that good or bad for snowy winter?

 

Look for yourself.

 

2008

2006

2004

1999

1997

1990

 

These were comparable during June and July.

 

Winter 09 was good.

Winter 07 was horrific.

Winter 05 was a nearly winter but poor overall.

Winter 2000 i don't know.

Feb 98 saw the record wamth.

Winter 1991 was good.

 

Most of these won't make the cut overall because we don't have an El Nino (so 1997 should be ignored) but a common theme from that list is either successful or attempted Feb cold spells,.

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2008

February 2008 was alright - it was a very sunny month with above-average days but below-average nights due to the persistent high pressure and clear skies. We had one ice day and temperatures of -8C, and freezing fog, not much snow though. Wouldn't mind a repeat.

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