Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Either warm or atlantic lows bringing in the salmon and the cod, oh yes.

[DAVID SNOW]

November,with a CET of 5.5

 

 

Off on a tangent slightly,but  spring 1962 and spring 2013 are almost the same (CET) wise,

 

March 62 CET of 2.8

April 62 CET of 7.7

May 62 CET of 10.3.

 

March 2013 CET 2.7

April   2013 CET 7.5

May   2013 CET 10.4.

 

And into summer...

 

June 62 CET  13.7

June 2013 CET 13.6..

[SunnySouthCoast]

I think the start of autumn will be dry with lots of sunshine & warm too, then from the middle of October it will turn more unsettled with rain & frequent gales, but fairly mild tempertures. November will be generally mild apart from the odd colder snap further north & into the winter I think it will continue mild, with any snow reserved for high ground in the north.

Edited July 5, 2013 by SunnySouthCoast

[Weather-history]

The last significantly cold autumn was 1993. The way the last 3 years have gone with the coldest winter for CET since 1978-79, coldest spring since Victorian times and the coolest summer for over 20 years, it feels like we are due a notably cold autumn, a sub 9C CET autumn. Both autumns 2010 and 2012 were the coolest since 1993 but their CET values were not particularly notable.

[GRHinPorts]

Off on a tangent slightly,but  spring 1962 and spring 2013 are almost the same (CET) wise,

 

March 62 CET of 2.8

April 62 CET of 7.7

May 62 CET of 10.3.

 

March 2013 CET 2.7

April   2013 CET 7.5

May   2013 CET 10.4.

 

And into summer...

 

June 62 CET  13.7

June 2013 CET 13.6..

 

The similarity with 1962 has been commented on elsewhere in the forum too. This year has really tracked the earlier one remarkably closely

 

Although Jan and Fen 1962 were actually both comfortably warmer (at 4.3 & 4.4 respectively) compared to the chilly Jan and Feb (3.2 and 3.5 respectively) of this year. 

 

However now looking at July, in 1962 the figure was a likely moan-inducing miserable 15.1, whereas I think July 2013 is now looking likely to deliver something rather better 

 

Perhaps this is just a correction from the extra cold Jan & Feb we had to endure this year compared to the former year. So supposing we really are going to track 1962 (and to get this post craftily back onto the topic of Autumns prospects) then we can expect a below average September and November but a bang on average October.

[Jax]

I am still hoping it will be that "Indian summer" we all like

 

 

 

fingers crossed

[Polar Maritime]

Im hoping some Autumn storm's with severe gales, something we've been lacking for the last few years..

[picog]

Off on a tangent slightly,but  spring 1962 and spring 2013 are almost the same (CET) wise, March 62 CET of 2.8April 62 CET of 7.7May 62 CET of 10.3. March 2013 CET 2.7April   2013 CET 7.5May   2013 CET 10.4. And into summer... June 62 CET  13.7June 2013 CET 13.6..

How I wish pattern matching worked!

[Weather-history]

Contrasting October weather

1993

2001

[stewfox]

I feel it will be a bad winter. The end of November, it will be VERY cold. 2010/11 winter looks likely to be a repeat...with a hint of 1994/95.

 

Are you not going to give Autumn a complex if you just ignore it ? Poor little fella, I'm going to get I love Autumn tee shirts

Contrasting October weather1993http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_n7MvhNLMO82001http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1R9SVMha8Rk

 

Contrasting in need no way I can see Michael getting into that skirt/dress.

 

October 1985 was one that stands out for me (warm)

Edited July 6, 2013 by stewfox

[UV-RAY]

IMO it's only a matter of time before we see strong height rises over Greenland again, as the charts CC posted for winter we could be looking at some exceptionally cold conditions. For the Autumn I see an average first half proceeding a below average second half, with precipitation coming in below average for the whole of Autumn.

[laserguy]

First signs of Autumn #1 - flowers fading on Elders, tiny berries forming. Time to dust off the demijohns!

[Radiating Dendrite]

It's too hot!

Looking forward to autumn, being able to sleep at night and not having to constantly worry about sweaty armpits!

[Lettucing Gutted]

It's too hot!

Looking forward to autumn, being able to sleep at night and not having to constantly worry about sweaty armpits!

An Active "Arctic" Cold Front similar to that in Mr Data's videos from 8-9th July 1993 would get us off to a great and early start to autumn.     Unfortunately unlike 1993 the Arctic is now too warm for such summer cold blasts.

[Mountain Snow]

First signs of Autumn #1 - flowers fading on Elders, tiny berries forming. Time to dust off the demijohns!

 

Your Elders already fading! Mine are only just flowering. Should be a good crop of berries this year, throw a few handfuls of blackberries into your fermenting bucket, makes a fantastic wine!

[summer blizzard]

Alright, I,m ready for autumn now. It,s too warm by day and night.

[laserguy]

Your Elders already fading! Mine are only just flowering. Should be a good crop of berries this year, throw a few handfuls of blackberries into your fermenting bucket, makes a fantastic wine!

 

Yep - practically all gone,now. Was a real abundance of flowers this year so hopefully the berries will follow. Got loads of bramble in the jungle at the bottom of the garden too so may add a few blackberries to a gallon but unadulterated,well-made and matured elderberry wine is truly something to behold and in my honest opinion knocks fancy, expensive French stuff into a cocked hat. I guess the wine snobs would beg to differ!

[Jax]

After last year I am "soaking up" this summer, may need to book another week off soon so I can do just that.

 

I like Autumn (and winter) but for different reasons, I use that time indoors, now I am quite active outside.

 

Example being yesterday, spent the morning in another nature reserve, and plan to do the same again at another one tomorrow and again next monday.

[Relativistic]

I'm hoping the end of November is clear in case Comet ISON is all some are making it out to be.

PS: would like a stormy October though.

Edited July 12, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[syed2878]

i hope we get a stormy autumn folowed by a cold winter with plenty of the white stuf for those of us who enjoy it.

[johnholmes]

Yep - practically all gone,now. Was a real abundance of flowers this year so hopefully the berries will follow. Got loads of bramble in the jungle at the bottom of the garden too so may add a few blackberries to a gallon but unadulterated,well-made and matured elderberry wine is truly something to behold and in my honest opinion knocks fancy, expensive French stuff into a cocked hat. I guess the wine snobs would beg to differ!

Years ago when I was winning prizes in the Manchester area I used a mix of elderberries, plums, the deep red variety, and one banana, seemd to work very well, tasted superb as well?

[Weather-history]

There is an article in today's Times by one of the those weather forecasters who uses nature to make predictions. His name is David King and he is going for a very cold October.

[Lettucing Gutted]

There is an article in today's Times by one of the those weather forecasters who uses nature to make predictions. His name is David King and he is going for a very cold October.

Yeah!  Come on October 2013 put October 1740 to shame. 

[Relativistic]

Yeah! Come on October 2013 put October 1740 to shame.

I know I said I would like a stormy October but if someone offered an October 1740 repeat to me then I would take that over the gales. I wonder if those conditions are even possible without a volcanic eruption, considering the October 1740 CET value was a massive 1.1C colder than October 1817 (2nd coldest October). I'm no expert so wouldn't be able to answer this question myself, but I'm sure someone on here could. What kind of synoptics would be needed to even get an October in the 6's?

[Weather-history]

I know I said I would like a stormy October but if someone offered an October 1740 repeat to me then I would take that over the gales. I wonder if those conditions are even possible without a volcanic eruption, considering the October 1740 CET value was a massive 1.1C colder than October 1817 (2nd coldest October). I'm no expert so wouldn't be able to answer this question myself, but I'm sure someone on here could. What kind of synoptics would be needed to even get an October in the 6's?

You can see for your self on wetterzentrale historic charts and look at October 1896 which had a CET of 6.9