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Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.


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Work outside is so much easier in Winter. No risk of overheating whatsoever. And even if you do get cold then you just whack another layer on.

It can be much more bitter than in summer, though. I did some charity collecting in December 2011 (not a particularly cold month) and any exposed skin, particularly the hands, would often go raw and painful very quickly (the job required constantly taking off gloves as well, which didn't help).Although, as you say, its much easier to simply rap up in cold weather than it is to cool down in hot weather. In this part of the world, humidity is also a major problem, and even in fairly cool weather it can become unbearable.
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It can be much more bitter than in summer, though. I did some charity collecting in December 2011 (not a particularly cold month) and any exposed skin, particularly the hands, would often go raw and painful very quickly (the job required constantly taking off gloves as well, which didn't help).Although, as you say, its much easier to simply rap up in cold weather than it is to cool down in hot weather. In this part of the world, humidity is also a major problem, and even in fairly cool weather it can become unbearable.

Yeah I suppose exposed hands may be an issue sometimes. I remember going for hike in January 2010 when it was icy all day, taking my gloves off to eat lunch, and then not being able to put them back on because my hands were so cold that it was hard to move them properly. That was partly my fault for taking gloves that were too small though! A decent pair of gloves shield out almost all forms of cold in this climate I find however.
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Nice and sunny this morning but with a lovely noticeable chill from a lovely light breeze! Also feeling cooler at night too :)

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I would like a traditional autumn, which we've lacked in recent years, where there's frost and cool mornings where you can see your breath. A few storms wouldn't go a miss either!

My question is where were we in recent years at this time? Currently some people are forecasting a warm autumn where as other are forecasting a cold one. For example, what were people saying about the autumn of 2011?

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Looking at the latest outlooks for early September and this warmth looks like continuing especially in the south east where it could be warm or very warm at times

I dont mind as long as we get a decent winter

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I dont mind as long as we get a decent winter

 

Very early suggestions for winter is a slow start before turning colder for a time from mid January but thats a while away yet so things may well and probably will change between now and late november

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Meaningless I know but the CFS 9 06 25.08.13 run shows another 62/63

type winter from late Dec on through to the end of Feb. Great fun to look

at.

 

Bring on the blizzards and resultant chaos and disruption I say. I CRAVE the big one this year!

 

From a personal point of view I'd like an early start to winter this year i.e a late Nov/Dec 2010 but greatly extended. Nothing better than snow on the ground leading up to the shortest day as it tends to stick around for longer in the sun. By mid-late January the sun is too strong to allow snow to stick around in these parts as we're so low lying. Go further up the road into the hills (even modest elevations) and snow seems to have no problem sticking around, even into March.

Edited by CreweCold
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Bring on the blizzards and resultant chaos and disruption I say. I CRAVE the big one this year!From a personal point of view I'd like an early start to winter this year i.e a late Nov/Dec 2010 but greatly extended. Nothing better than snow on the ground leading up to the shortest day as it tends to stick around for longer in the sun. By mid-late January the sun is too strong to allow snow to stick around in these parts as we're so low lying. Go further up the road into the hills (even modest elevations) and snow seems to have no problem sticking around, even into March.

. Yep I'm with you on that and lets please make it nationwide ....ie Cornwall , beautiful place to be when there is a good snow cover but a blizzard ... Oh yes please bring it on.One thing with down here if we get the perfect conditions for snow we normally get it good down here .All the very best people I do hope we get what we really want this autum and early winter. :-)
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I think its very possible this autumn and winter will be dominated by a +nao id say sept to mid October will be very settled with slightly above average temps but very low rainfall totals.

I do think we will see and uptick in alantic stormy weather also ex hurricaines although below average hurricaine season overall.

November I feel will be dominated by stormy westerly and southwesterly type weather with nw pm air making a few visits as systems move through also higher than average rainfall totals with temps above average.

 

as for December possible switch to neg nao but here it could go either way with possible heights over Europe and low pressure over or to the west of us bringing a very mild December......I base this on a moderate uptick in solar activity although still below if we use recent cycles.

 

but there is always a small chance that nao goes neg if this happens and the alantic hurricaine season stays as quiet as it is now then possibly a cold frosty December but very dry perhaps continuing until we see a shift in overall globel patterns,hopefully were see the first sign of retrogressions either into scandi or Greenland area even mid alantic heights.

I do however believe this winter and autumn is very hard to call.

the enso may well have an impact aswell correct me if im wrong the winter of 2010 was this pretty close to +1 el nino conditions ??? if so this could be a good sign and theres also the jet stream which has been pretty kind to us over the last 4 or five years.

 

has this summer seen the jet futher south than normal could this be another added +towards a colder than average autumn and winter but overall im going for slightly above average temps then more normal or slightly above mid October until November then above average through out with the odd cooler type west northwest pm,but above average rainfall.

but overall its a hard year to call correct.Posted Image 

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Roger J Smith is going for the mildest winter since 2007-08 and maybe even 2006 - 07 it doesn't mean we won't see any wintery weather but on the whole a fairly mild winter may finally be on the cards after a run of colder ones.

 

He is also going for a rather mild to warm Autumn

 

At this point, the UK climate signal has recently switched from a generally negative (below normal in temperature) trend that was most apparent in March (coldest since 1917) to positive in July (the first month to be in the top 20% since perhaps April 2011). So, will this trend hold for a while? Or will we see a return to the colder climate that had settled in for large parts of the past three years?

 

My research output indicates that we may stay generally on the warmer side of normal now, for about six months to a year. There could be one or two brief cold intervals in the autumn and winter. My research times these for late September and mid-January. But otherwise, expect the trends to be either near or above normal about 75% of the time. That will make 2013-14 the mildest winter since 2007-08 and possibly even 2006-07. There might be a brief wintry episode but in general I'm expecting a milder winter than we've seen for a few years now. Also, most of the autumn is indicated to be rather mild to warm.

 

However, there could still be one or perhaps two wintry episodes and I recall that while that winter of 2006-07 was generally very mild, there was one significant snowstorm when it did turn cold (around 9 Feb), as well as quite an intense windstorm (around 19th January). So there's hope from that angle (if you like active winter weather), also, I don't claim any degree of infallibility although I would love to wear those sorts of outfits and have my own limousine. So that's equally hopeful if you would prefer that this outlook might be, umm, what's the technical term? Wrong, that's it.

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/rogerjsmith.html

 

:)

Edited by Summer Sun
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Roger J Smith is going for the mildest winter since 2007-08 and maybe even 2006 - 07 it doesn't mean we won't see any wintery weather but on the whole a fairly mild winter may finally be on the cards after a run of colder ones.

 

He is also going for a rather mild to warm Autumn

 

At this point, the UK climate signal has recently switched from a generally negative (below normal in temperature) trend that was most apparent in March (coldest since 1917) to positive in July (the first month to be in the top 20% since perhaps April 2011). So, will this trend hold for a while? Or will we see a return to the colder climate that had settled in for large parts of the past three years?

 

My research output indicates that we may stay generally on the warmer side of normal now, for about six months to a year. There could be one or two brief cold intervals in the autumn and winter. My research times these for late September and mid-January. But otherwise, expect the trends to be either near or above normal about 75% of the time. That will make 2013-14 the mildest winter since 2007-08 and possibly even 2006-07. There might be a brief wintry episode but in general I'm expecting a milder winter than we've seen for a few years now. Also, most of the autumn is indicated to be rather mild to warm.

 

However, there could still be one or perhaps two wintry episodes and I recall that while that winter of 2006-07 was generally very mild, there was one significant snowstorm when it did turn cold (around 9 Feb), as well as quite an intense windstorm (around 19th January). So there's hope from that angle (if you like active winter weather), also, I don't claim any degree of infallibility although I would love to wear those sorts of outfits and have my own limousine. So that's equally hopeful if you would prefer that this outlook might be, umm, what's the technical term? Wrong, that's it.

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/rogerjsmith.html

 

Posted Image

 

Well at the minute no major global model is forecasting a mild winter- quite the opposite in fact. Doesn't mean they can't flip though. Saying this, seems like a brave call by Roger at this moment in time as 2011-2012 was a mild winter and seasonal models look a lot colder than that winter was.

 

post-10987-0-82838800-1377534497_thumb.p

 

Posted Image

 

In fact, reading that suggests to me he's basing his forecast on the assumption the NAO will stay positive for as long as we've seen it stay negative recently. It's no sleight on Roger, but it has been suggested the -NAO pattern may be about re-emerge throughout the autumn.

Edited by CreweCold
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Thanks for quoting someone I blocked crewecold Posted Image

 

Sorry Eugene! ooops

 

I will say though if, this coming winter, I have to witness Gavin post a Bartlett chart with one of his smiley faces at the bottom of the post, my laptop screen will be punched into next year. Sorry Gav :p

Edited by CreweCold
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Gavin P has issued his official autumn forecast and with low confidence he is going for slightly above average temperatures and near normal rainfall

Edited by A Boy Named Sue
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Gavin P has issued his official autumn forecast and with low confidence he is going for slightly above average temperatures and near normal rainfall

 

 

Yep watched this yesterday. I enjoy Gavin's vids. Nice little tease about the winter at the end there aswell :p

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Yep watched this yesterday. I enjoy Gavin's vids. Nice little tease about the winter at the end there aswell Posted Image

 

 

And from the Met Office...........

Edited by DAVID SNOW
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Roger J Smith is going for the mildest winter since 2007-08 and maybe even 2006 - 07 it doesn't mean we won't see any wintery weather but on the whole a fairly mild winter may finally be on the cards after a run of colder ones.

 

He is also going for a rather mild to warm Autumn

 

At this point, the UK climate signal has recently switched from a generally negative (below normal in temperature) trend that was most apparent in March (coldest since 1917) to positive in July (the first month to be in the top 20% since perhaps April 2011). So, will this trend hold for a while? Or will we see a return to the colder climate that had settled in for large parts of the past three years?

 

My research output indicates that we may stay generally on the warmer side of normal now, for about six months to a year. There could be one or two brief cold intervals in the autumn and winter. My research times these for late September and mid-January. But otherwise, expect the trends to be either near or above normal about 75% of the time. That will make 2013-14 the mildest winter since 2007-08 and possibly even 2006-07. There might be a brief wintry episode but in general I'm expecting a milder winter than we've seen for a few years now. Also, most of the autumn is indicated to be rather mild to warm.

 

However, there could still be one or perhaps two wintry episodes and I recall that while that winter of 2006-07 was generally very mild, there was one significant snowstorm when it did turn cold (around 9 Feb), as well as quite an intense windstorm (around 19th January). So there's hope from that angle (if you like active winter weather), also, I don't claim any degree of infallibility although I would love to wear those sorts of outfits and have my own limousine. So that's equally hopeful if you would prefer that this outlook might be, umm, what's the technical term? Wrong, that's it.

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/rogerjsmith.html

 

Posted Image

 

March 2012 was the 4th warmest on record so top 2%.

 

Well at the minute no major global model is forecasting a mild winter- quite the opposite in fact. Doesn't mean they can't flip though. Saying this, seems like a brave call by Roger at this moment in time as 2011-2012 was a mild winter and seasonal models look a lot colder than that winter was.

 

Posted ImageCFS Jan 2.png

 

Posted Image

 

In fact, reading that suggests to me he's basing his forecast on the assumption the NAO will stay positive for as long as we've seen it stay negative recently. It's no sleight on Roger, but it has been suggested the -NAO pattern may be about re-emerge throughout the autumn.

 

It's possible with the +QBO that he expects an El Nino or movement towards (winter 07 saw such conditions) though i believe he goes on lunar cycles.

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It's possible with the +QBO that he expects an El Nino or movement towards (winter 07 saw such conditions) though i believe he goes on lunar cycles.

 

Possibly. Weak El Nino looks the form horse at present but looks to be under or around the +1 mark so how significant it'll be I don't know. Reading his explanation it looks like he's using solar and lunar cycles.

 

Would be interesting if you could drag out the years with a +QBO and a weak Nino Enso state.

 

EDIT: interestingly, just did some reading and it seems Joe D'Alio did some research on this. He found that a weak Nino and a +QBO resulted in an average bias towards a -AO and NAO. This, coupled with the Atlantic tripole signature in May and the bullishness of the long range modelling towards a -AO suggests things may get interesting....maybe.

Edited by CreweCold
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