Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[cheese]

September 2012 here was cool and had above-average precipitation, but October was more or less bang on average rainfall-wise (but still cold).

[Relativistic]

Never knew you got that much down there, I got about 3 inches, I take it that was the first Saturday in Feb, Dec was mild overall but saw a good few days of falling snow early in the month and an inch and a half on the 18th Dec I think, around 5 am, some of the heaviest in terms of ferocity and size of flakes that I have ever seen, pity it didn't last very long.

Yes, was on the first Saturday and a fair amount of it lasted until the next weekend before melting away.

[Relativistic]

I'm not sure I'd regard Autumn 2012 as cold because September produced some real heat around here up to the 10th. Numerous days in the mid 20's. It did then cool off and October was cool but November was near normal in terms of temperatures. It was wet though, the River Chelmer burst its banks in November, putting a large proportion of the surrounding flood plane underwater. September was also wet in the second half.

[MP-R]

September 2003 certainly wasn't cold or wet. It went chilly for a few days in the final week but rain was sparse!

[SomeLikeItHot]

Out of interest when was the last very wet cold autumn? with at least two cold wet months.. ? Many recent autumns have seen lengthy dry periods with varying degrees of cold and warmth think October 2009 and 2010 for example or mild wet months such as Nov 09. I think 2003 might be the last autumn to feature 2 colder than normal and wetter than normal months in September and October - but unsure. 2000 saw near average temperatures from memory but was definately the last truly wet autumn throughout. 1994 might fit the bill - I remember Sept and October being thoroughly wet months and chilly to boot. 1993 was a cold one but not particularly wet from memory. 1992 also probably fits the bill. Perhaps its time for a wet cold one?

Surely that was last year. All three below the 81-10 averages, and 2 months also below the 61-90 average, with plenty of rain.

[hillbilly]

I guess a September 1986,october 1992 and November 1985 is in order!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Autumn's bursting out in my garden: Lords & Ladies popping up, blackberries, plums just coming good, hazelnuts are huge, grass growth has slowed right down and the holly bushes are dripping with soon to be red berries

[cheeky_monkey]

Autumn's bursting out in my garden: Lords & Ladies popping up, blackberries, plums just coming good, hazelnuts are huge, grass growth has slowed right down and the holly bushes are dripping with soon to be red berries

trees have already turned here..which is a bit early even for my location

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I know it's late August when the TV weatherman says: "There'll be a touch of frost in the more isolated Glens of Scotland tonight"

[feb1991blizzard]

 

 

 

BANK.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Is that Edmonton Cheeky Monkey?

Edited August 20, 2013 by Craig Evans

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Any sniff of some cooler weather in early September?

[cheeky_monkey]

Is that Edmonton Cheeky Monkey?

no i live in Calgary now

[Summer Sun]

Any sniff of some cooler weather in early September?

 

According to GFS no

 

 

[Bottesford]

Hope not - cooler can wait till mid October at least - like how warmth waited till ... ermm late June I think!

Hopefully a traditional autumn with a lot of warmth in September to ripen things off, then the wind/rain can get going in mid Oct for its usual 2 month stint.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

According to GFS no

 

 

 

Bummer

[weatherguy]

Autumnal weather to me seems rather "pointless" to me...I'm hoping for a nice Indian Summer stretching to November, before a nice early winter kicks in with a vengeance mid November  

[DOdo]

Autumnal weather to me seems rather "pointless" to me...I'm hoping for a nice Indian Summer stretching to November, before a nice early winter kicks in with a vengeance mid November  

Me too

[Cheshire Freeze]

For those interested, the Glosea4 model has updated. Here is the pressure anomalies for late autumn into winter- HP anomaly stretching Scandi-Iceland-S Greenland

 

 

That's as good as anyone could hope for if you're wanting a cold, seasonal end to autumn/beginning of winter.

 

The Sep-Oct-Nov anomaly is below.....

 

 

Overall looks to be very supportive of the CFS v2 pressure anomalies as we head into late autumn/early winter.

Edited August 20, 2013 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

For those interested, the Glosea4 model has updated. Here is the pressure anomalies for late autumn into winter- HP anomaly stretching Scandi-Iceland-S Greenland

 

 

That's as good as anyone could hope for if you're wanting a cold, seasonal end to autumn/beginning of winter.

 

The Sep-Oct-Nov anomaly is below.....

 

 

Overall looks to be very supportive of the CFS v2 pressure anomalies as we head into late autumn/early winter.

 

Jolly good one that, I have to say that there hasn't been as strong a showing of blocking as that on any met long range model update in the run up to the last few winters, from what I have noticed that model has a tendency usually just to play it safe and predict an average - slightly milder than average winter

[feb1991blizzard]

According to GFS no

 

 

 

 

According to CFS Yes

 

 

 

Edited August 20, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

On the bias corrected z5 anomalies it has to be said that November is a horror show though.

 

January a ripper though.

 

 

[weatherguy]

All fun and games looking at specifics like that this far out of course, but would you rather tap into a November cold pool, or a January one?  I'd happily take a (not even mild, possibly warm if that were to come off) November if it meant synoptics like that came to fruition in deeper winter! 

 

Also feb - I think my avatar is prettier than your's! 

Edited August 21, 2013 by weatherguy

[Weather-history]

Autumnal weather to me seems rather "pointless" to me...I'm hoping for a nice Indian Summer stretching to November, before a nice early winter kicks in with a vengeance mid November

Is there any such thing as "autumnal weather"? A gale is a gale, snow is snow, frost is frost whatever time of the year occurs. Yes we associate snow and frost with winter but as we have seen this year, it can occur in spring and during past autumns such as 1993. Edited August 21, 2013 by Weather-history

[weatherguy]

You're correct of course, but perhaps being a tad pedantic there; by "autumnal weather" I mean the weather one would normally expect for the majority of autumn.