Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[Polar Maritime]

Temp down to 6.5c here last night.

[Duane S.]

Ah Autumn... for me it means Anti-cyclonic still and foggy weather. There is something about those cool Autumn evenings. For me summer is over the day after the August bank holiday, every year it's like a switch has been turned, not matter what the weather type at the time.

 

I'm not a liker of summer heat although I hate the incesant rain a heck of a lot more so I've quite enjoyed this year's summer after last year. And living on the coast it's rarely as stiffling hot as it can get inland so it was just about bearable.

 

And this morning there is an autumnal whiff in the air...

[UV-RAY]

Look for yourself.

 

2008

2006

2004

1999

1997

1990

 

These were comparable during June and July.

 

Winter 09 was good.

Winter 07 was horrific.

Winter 05 was a nearly winter but poor overall.

Winter 2000 i don't know.

Feb 98 saw the record wamth.

Winter 1991 was good.

 

Most of these won't make the cut overall because we don't have an El Nino (so 1997 should be ignored) but a common theme from that list is either successful or attempted Feb cold spells,.

What we don't know though with the very limited past data we have on the QBO, is how does it correlate with low solar output. We are  still only getting to grips with all these teleconnections so it's still a learning curve for us all.

Edited August 7, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[cheese]

3C @ Shap and Redesdale Camp.

Edited August 7, 2013 by cheese

[summer blizzard]

February 2008 was alright - it was a very sunny month with above-average days but below-average nights due to the persistent high pressure and clear skies. We had one ice day and temperatures of -8C, and freezing fog, not much snow though. Wouldn't mind a repeat.

You need to roll forward for the winter so its Feb 09 you want to think of.

[cheese]

Ah, right. Not really paying attention this morning!

[UV-RAY]

I still remain unconvinced at just how important a role the QBO plays, for me it's just one of a number of other cycles that needs to fall into place.

[summer blizzard]

I still remain unconvinced at just how important a role the QBO plays, for me it's just one of a number of other cycles that needs to fall into place.

Completely agree and made more complicated by different weightings.

[summer blizzard]

Most -MEI value since Feb 12. Me thinks a La Nina is probable albeit weak and maybe not strictly by the definition of the NOAA.

[feb1991blizzard]

Most -MEI value since Feb 12. Me thinks a La Nina is probable albeit weak and maybe not strictly by the definition of the NOAA.

 

 

What would you say we are looking for in terms of teleconnections as we head towards winter this year, I take it ENSO neutral would be best and the last think we need is a strong La nina?,

[summer blizzard]

What would you say we are looking for in terms of teleconnections as we head towards winter this year, I take it ENSO neutral would be best and the last think we need is a strong La nina?,

As I recall 1962 had a negative everything.This winter I'd guess a weak la Nina by mei values, a westerly qbo that has peaked, negative glaam and a negative pdo. Winter 09 is probably similar.

[Cheshire Freeze]

As I recall 1962 had a negative everything.This winter I'd guess a weak la Nina by mei values, a westerly qbo that has peaked, negative glaam and a negative pdo.Winter 09 is probably similar.

 

CFS continuing its -NAO theme at present. Offers us a nice December on this run..

 

 

Oh and a nice -NAO Feb

 

 

January isn't bad too

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 7, 2013 by CreweCold

[summer blizzard]

CFS continuing its -NAO theme at present. Offers us a nice December on this run..

 

cfs-4-12-2013.png

What did it show last summer for winter.

[Cheshire Freeze]

What did it show last summer for winter.

 

It was very erratic if I remember rightly. One thing it did pick up on very early was the severe March. It ran with that idea for months and barely waivered.

 

Thus far, the CFS has been very steadfast on a bitter January since May; showing a -NAO on many of its runs. Guess we'll have to wait and see what transpires!

[J10]

Look for yourself.

 

2008

2006

2004

1999

1997

1990

 

These were comparable during June and July.

 

Winter 09 was good.

Winter 07 was horrific.

Winter 05 was a nearly winter but poor overall.

Winter 2000 i don't know.

Feb 98 saw the record wamth.

Winter 1991 was good.

 

Most of these won't make the cut overall because we don't have an El Nino (so 1997 should be ignored) but a common theme from that list is either successful or attempted Feb cold spells,.

 

From a local snow perspective,

 

2009 was a snowy winter

2007 was pretty poor, but had one notable snow event.

2005 was a pretty good winter, a lot of falling snow but not that much sticking around for a long time.

2000 was pretty poor, one notable snow event, and that was on the way to Bath,

1991 was pretty epic.

 

So a mixed bag really.

[Cheshire Freeze]

From a local snow perspective,

 

2009 was a snowy winter

2007 was pretty poor, but had one notable snow event.

2005 was a pretty good winter, a lot of falling snow but not that much sticking around for a long time.

2000 was pretty poor, one notable snow event, and that was on the way to Bath,

1991 was pretty epic.

 

So a mixed bag really.

 

An 09/10 type winter would be good. Recorded a low of -15C which is an experience I'll certainly never forget. It was magical.

[feb1991blizzard]

From a local snow perspective,

 

2009 was a snowy winter

2007 was pretty poor, but had one notable snow event.

2005 was a pretty good winter, a lot of falling snow but not that much sticking around for a long time.

2000 was pretty poor, one notable snow event, and that was on the way to Bath,

1991 was pretty epic.

 

So a mixed bag really.

 

 

Year Location   Rating  Comments

 

2009   Salford  2 Missed out on the mother of all pastings by 7 or 8 miles

2007   Birmingham  5 Nothing early, decent ending if you include March and by standards of naughties certainly not the worst.

2005   Birmingham 6   Same except it was feb this time, could have been a stonker though, 6 because of rubbish other winters.

2000   Birmingham  4  Don't remember much but was not great.

1991   Birmingham 9.6 Second best in terms of Snow total but probably best of all time in terms of enjoyment.

[feb1991blizzard]

An 09/10 type winter would be good. Recorded a low of -15C which is an experience I'll certainly never forget. It was magical.

 

I had -15 regularly in Dec 10 here, wondered why the BBC was showing -15 at 11pm every night and never went lower and why did the water Meters blow and pipes freeze at -15, it was only recently someone local told me it wasn't -15, it was -20.

[Weather-history]

CFS continuing its -NAO theme at present. Offers us a nice December on this run..

 

cfs-4-12-2013.png

 

Oh and a nice -NAO Feb

 

cfs-4-2-2014.png

 

January isn't bad too

 

cfs-4-1-2014 (2).png

What's CFS showing for autumn though, which is really what this thread is about?

[UV-RAY]

The projected early cold  temps over the Arctic could put paid to any hopes of an Indian Summer, will we see the PV also ramping up early in the season.

[lesta_snow]

CFS continuing its -NAO theme at present. Offers us a nice December on this run..

cfs-4-12-2013.png

Oh and a nice -NAO Feb

cfs-4-2-2014.png

January isn't bad too

cfs-4-1-2014 (2).png

Have you got the autumn charts? Sept-nov. thanks!

[sundog]

I havent been following the  model but for what its worth these are todays cfs predictions for the Autumn months. As i havent been following the model  I dont know if its been showing these sort of charts for these months with any sort consistancy or not.

[summer blizzard]

That's actually not a bad Autumn if we can get the high closer for some frost in October.

[cooling climate]

According to Bret Anderson (accuweather) the ECMWF long range seasonal forecast

that runs through the winter came out on the 8th suggests a -AO for the winter 13/14.

 

Mr Anderson is a Canadian meteorologist so only gives an idea what conditions may

be like for during fall and winter for Canada and the US. A warm fall is depicted

throughout most of canada during fall and surprisingly despite a negative AO pattern

being shown through the winter there is no real sign of cold or snow throughout the

US which would normally be expected during a blocking and negative AO regime.

 

The model also forecasts a neutral enso perhaps becomming weak Nino during

second half of winter.

[summer blizzard]

According to Bret Anderson (accuweather) the ECMWF long range seasonal forecast

that runs through the winter came out on the 8th suggests a -AO for the winter 13/14.

 

Mr Anderson is a Canadian meteorologist so only gives an idea what conditions may

be like for during fall and winter for Canada and the US. A warm fall is depicted

throughout most of canada during fall and surprisingly despite a negative AO pattern

being shown through the winter there is no real sign of cold or snow throughout the

US which would normally be expected during a blocking and negative AO regime.

 

The model also forecasts a neutral enso perhaps becomming weak Nino during

second half of winter.

 

As great as the short term forecasts are from the ECMWF it's long range forecasts leave a lot to be desired. It is currently forecasting a warm-neutral ENSO for summer along with higher than average tropical pressures (both have busted), as such i remain extremely skeptical.