Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[mushymanrob]

heatwave?what heatwave? despite the seemingly hot synoptic charts we have now, temps here today are struggling to get past 21c . which by 2pm isnt going to break the 25c barrier. a cool breeze and some cloud is spoiling temps here.

[shedhead]

A bit irritated I must admit at the GFS 06z and runs moving towards the GFS today , even the BBC were confident enough to say hotting up again to 30C at the weekend and possibly after, but not sure that will happen if the GFS comes off (maybe very locally on Saturday), as the Met Office forecast maps don't show temps quite as high on Friday and Saturday even as they were yesterday/today in places.

It seems like ECM = most accurate model - unless it shows something you want to happen, then it follows the GFS instead.

As bluearmy has suggested we seem to be approaching some sort of juncture, whereby we will either see the increasingly cool weekend runs either disappear or gather further momentum, but imo the latest 500mb anom data lends more weight to the latter...at least for now. 

 

Regarding the perennial ECM v GFS battle, it's fair to say that all models chop and change for all sorts of different reasons, not just those two.  However what never changes on here is the best, most consistent and most accurate model is always the one that shows the coldest solution in winter and the hottest solution in summer....

Edited July 8, 2013 by shedhead

[Captain Shortwave]

heatwave?what heatwave? despite the seemingly hot synoptic charts we have now, temps here today are struggling to get past 21c . which by 2pm isnt going to break the 25c barrier. a cool breeze and some cloud is spoiling temps here.

Doing better than here. It's the first half of June all over again here.

Organising a trip down the beach saturday with someone and actually want the weather to be really nice. Looked almost nailed on but the models seem to be chipping away at this. Saturday still looks good at the moment though.

[Geordiesnow]

Does look more likely we may head into a cool down this weekend, although any change in the orientation of the high pressure cell may still change that and could have some areas clinging onto the warmth for the weekend. 

 

Also to note that the Euro models are trending towards the GFS regarding heights over Greenland hence they seemed to more like previous GFS charts today than what they were showing last night.

 

Even though it may turn cooler for some(Scotland looks quite likely for this to happen), in terms of rainfall then I don't see much sign of anything widespread and heavy appearing on the charts just yet but a pattern change is starting to look more and more likely though. More runs needed though. 

[NorthernRab]

Blimey that is some downgrade, few days it showed 32c for Sunday.

 

This is why I repeatedly urge people not to look at temperature charts until 48 hours before, preferably less!

[nanu]

Well the met is going for a hot and thundery weekend!!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/23228178

[Milhouse]

Well the met is going for a hot and thundery weekend!!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/23228178

 

Which would reflect the UKMO 0z.

[Gordon Webb]

probably change again long before the weekend is upon us and besides whenever I've seen forecasts for cold fronts to come down from the north and interact with warmer air like this It's never been as bad as forecast and this also contrasts with it's own monthly outlook of having patchy rain in the north and dry and fine weather further south

Edited July 8, 2013 by Gordon Webb

[Buzzit]

Regarding the perennial ECM v GFS battle, it's fair to say that all models chop and change for all sorts of different reasons, not just those two.  However what never changes on here is the best, most consistent and most accurate model is always the one that shows the coldest solution in winter and the hottest solution in summer....

Unless you are part of the 5% where it is not the best model IMBY

[phil nw.]

Seems a good time to lock this thread shortly and open a new one ready for the evenings musings.

[phil nw.]

Right locking this now.New thread over here-

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77223-model-output-discussion-12z-080713/

 

ready for the 12z runs etc.