Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[Woollymummy]

I hope this is the right place to post this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/hottest-year-on-record/

 

mesmerizing

[knocker]

Tamino musing

Correcting for more than just el Niño

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/29/correcting-for-more-than-just-el-nino/

[knocker]

https://twitter.com/TimOsbornClim

So, here's how HadCRUT4 global temperature looked month-by-month in 2015

https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/~timo/diag/tempthisyear.htm

Edited February 3, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

January TempLS surface temperature down 0.09°C

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The GHCN data for January is now fairly complete. The TempLS report is here. Unusually, the holdup this time was US data, which is usually first to appear. The headline result is that TempLS mesh is down from 0.97°C (1961-90 base) in December to 0.899°C in January, almost the same as November. TempLS grid showed a greater drop of 0.18°C.

The lead up indicators were mixed. The satellite measures rose quite strongly. The satellite measures rose quite strongly. The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index showed a small rise of about 0.04°C, as I believe did Weatherbell. But Karsten, based on GFS, had a very large drop of 0.25°C, and for NCEP/NCAR 0.15°C. There is support for a significant drop. I would expect falls in GISS and NOAA, though possibly not quite as large.

The daily NCEP/NCAR helps understand what happened. The first half of Jan was very warm, and then a sudden cooling. Back to very warm in February. It seems qite likely that different measures might get variable results there.

I'll focus this time on the breakdown, which is, as shown in the regular report, here:

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/january-templs-surface-temperature-down.html

[Thundery wintry showers]

Inclusion of the Arctic will probably make a significant difference for January, since the NCEP/NCAR charts consistently showed insane warm anomalies over the Arctic, but hints of reduced warmth over the continents relative to December.  Thus I expect GISS to come in warmer than NOAA and HadCRUT4, since it interpolates aggressively across the Arctic and Antarctica, although probably still with a slight drop relative to December.  Nonetheless, I expect all three datasets to beat the previous warmest January (2007 in all cases, if I remember rightly, with 2015 in second place).

Edited February 11, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[BornFromTheVoid]

GISS have released their January data, and, with an anomaly of +1.13C above the 51-80 average, it's the warmest on record by +0.18C.

The 12 month average climbing quickly too, up to +0.89C

[knocker]

Prospects for 2016

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We have very little information yet about 2016, but we do have a possible pattern in the 1997/8 El Nino. I started thinking about this post when I noted that surface measures either diminished or advanced by a little from December to January. I thought that might be a deviation from the 1997/8 pattern, but I found that it was similar then.

Satellite data rose by quite a lot, but less than in 1997/8, though it started from a warmer base. I showed a plot of RSS in that time here. So in this post, I'll develop those plots for a range of indices, showing more detail of the current evolution. I'm thinking also about the prospects for 2016 being a record year. I think it is quite likely, though satellite measures are less well placed, and more volatile. So there is an interactive plot below the jump.

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/prospects-for-2016.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

The JMA have released their January data, and as expected, January 2016 was the warmest on record. At +0.52C above the 81-10 average, it beats 2nd place by +0.23C

1st. 2016 (+0.52°C),
2nd. 2015, 2007, 2002 (+0.29°C),
5th. 2010 (+0.21°C)

[Devonian]

12 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

The JMA have released their January data, and as expected, January 2016 was the warmest on record. At +0.52C above the 81-10 average, it beats 2nd place by +0.23C

1st. 2016 (+0.52°C),
2nd. 2015, 2007, 2002 (+0.29°C),
5th. 2010 (+0.21°C)

I always find myself somewhat confused by global monthly graphs like in this post. It's not immediately clear (to me at least) whether they mean 'global temperature to January year X' 'or 'global temperatures for just Januaries' (which I think they mean in this and you last post)?

If they are the latter, then I don't know why the 'dots are joined' since, in reality, there are eleven other data points between each point.

Edited February 15, 2016 by Devonian

[knocker]

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

11 hours ago, Devonian said:

I always find myself somewhat confused by global monthly graphs like in this post. It's not immediately clear (to me at least) whether they mean 'global temperature to January year X' 'or 'global temperatures for just Januaries' (which I think they mean in this and you last post)?

If they are the latter, then I don't know why the 'dots are joined' since, in reality, there are eleven other data points between each point.

 

It's just January from each year of record in the JMA post.

The GISS one has January from each year too at the top, and every month on record in the bottom graph.

I think the dots are joined purely for aesthetic purposes.

[knocker]

Quote

There was a flurry of articles in the usual Press places, about a statistical forecast of future temperatures sponsored by the GWPF (Murdoch, Express,Daily Mail). Blog reaction tended to focus on the total ignoring of physics, or, more frequently, the observation that:
"The GWPF paid Terence Mills, professor of applied statistics at Loughborough University, £3,000 to write the report."

Well, those are cogent criticisms. But time series analysis is a respectable enough endeavour, so I read the report to see if the GWPF got its money's worth.

The answer is no, or maybe from their poiunt of view, yes. There are about 33 quite well-written pages, borrowing I suspect from lecture notes (nothing wrong with that). But the forecasts themselves are worthless. Gavin Schmidt tweeted the following test of the HADCRUT forecasts, which were from 2014, after just one year:

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/gwpfs-statistical-forecast.html

[knocker]

Carl Mears and team at RSS have published a new paper describing a revision of their data for atmospheric temperature. The focus is on improving the “diurnal correction,” which is necessary because different regions of Earth are observed at different times of day. The upshot is that the lower atmosphere has warmed faster than was previously believed.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0744.1?af=R

Quote

Temperature sounding microwave radiometers flown on polar-orbiting weather satellites provide a long-term, global-scale record of upper-atmosphere temperatures, beginning in late 1978 and continuing to the present. The focus of this paper is the middle tropospheric measurements made by the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channel 2, and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) channel 5. Previous versions of the RSS dataset have used a diurnal climatology derived from general circulation model output to remove the effects of drifting local measurement time. In this paper, we present evidence that this previous method is not sufficiently accurate, and present several alternative methods to optimize these adjustments using information from the satellite measurements themselves. These are used to construct a number of candidate climate data records using measurements from 15 MSU and AMSU satellites. The new methods result in improved agreement between measurements made by different satellites at the same time. We choose a method based on an optimized second harmonic adjustment to produce a new version of the RSS dataset, Version 4.0. The new dataset shows substantially increased global-scale warming relative to the previous version of the dataset, particularly after 1998. The new dataset shows more warming than most other middle tropospheric data records constructed from the same set of satellites. We also show that the new dataset is consistent with long-term changes in total column water vapor over the tropical oceans, lending support to its long-term accuracy.

 

Edited March 2, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

Quote

Most GHCN data for February is now in - a few gaps like Greenland, Mexico, Peru. For TempLS mesh (report here) the anomaly average rose from 0.889°C to 1.085°C. January had dropped from December; but still, the February reading beat the previous record month of December by 0.115°C. TempLS grid had a similar rise, but from a lower January base.

This adds to the evidence that February was very warm indeed. The NCEP/NCAR index was up by a similar amount (0.175); the two satellite indices were up by about 0.3°C. Each, of course, highest in its record. I would expect comparable rises in the main surface indices (GISS, NOAA, HADCRUT). GISS, for example, could approach 1.3°C.

The heat was especially in a broad band from W Europe to E Siberia, with a branch down through China. Another branch from Alaska to US Midwest. I think the patterns around Canada/Greenland may change with more data coming in, with possible upside to the global total.

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/templs-up-0196-in-march-new-record.html

[knocker]

A post by Stephen Mosher

Guest post: Surface and Satellite Discrepancy

With the publication of a new version of RSS’s data product the controversy over the accuracy of satellite data is likely to intensify. Prior to the publication of this new data, I took some time to do exploratory data analysis of RSS and the Berkeley Earth surface product. My tentative conclusion was that there were two areas that merited deeper investigation: The performance of satellite products at high latitudes and the transition between MSU data and AMSU data. With the publication of the new data, my analysis will have to be revisited ; however, there are still some things to be learned from looking at the prior version. In a complete analysis the various uncertainties of the data would have to be considered. At this stage I am only looking for fruitful areas to explore based on the known differences between the products.

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2016/03/08/guest-post-surface-and-satellite-discrepancy/

[knocker]

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

At +1.35C above the 51-80 average, the GISS temperature for February was warmest on record by +0.47C.

The 12 month rolling average is now at +0.93C

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest SOTC update has February smashing all kinds of record by a long way.

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Global highlights: February 2016

• The February average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 2.18°F (1.21°C) above the 20th century average. This was not only the highest for February in the 1880–2016 record (surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.59°F / 0.33°C), but it surpassed the all-time monthly record set just two months ago in December 2015 by 0.16°F (0.09°C). February 2016 also marks the 10th consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken.
• The February globally-averaged land surface temperature was 4.16°F (2.31°C) above the 20thcentury average. This was the highest for February in the 1880–2016 record, surpassing the previous records set in 1998 and 2015 by 1.13°F (0.63°C) and surpassing the all-time single-month record set in March 2008 by 0.77°F (0.43°C).
• The February globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 1.46°F (0.81°C) above the 20thcentury average. This was the highest for February in the 1880–2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.36°F (0.20°C) , and was the sixth highest departure from average among all 1,646 months in the record. The nine highest monthly global ocean temperature departures have all occurred in the past nine months (since July 2015).
• The February temperature for the lower troposphere (roughly the lowest 5 miles of the atmosphere) was the highest in the 1979–2016 record, at 1.62°F (0.90°C) above the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) using version 5.6. It was also highest on record, at 1.57°F (0.87°C) above the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS). The February 2016 departures from average are also the highest for any month in the 38-year period of record, surpassing the previous record set in April 1998 by 0.43°F (0.24°C) for UAH and by 0.23°F (0.13°C) for RSS.
• The February temperature for the mid-troposphere (roughly 2 miles to 6 miles above the surface) was the highest for this month in the 1979–2016 record, at 1.31°F (0.73°C) above the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by UAH. It was also highest on record, at 1.33°F (0.74°C) above the 1981–2010 average, as analyzed by RSS. After removing the influence of temperatures above 6 miles in altitude, the University of Washington, using data analyzed by the UAH and RSS, calculated temperature departures from the 1981–2010 average to be 1.60°F (0.89°C) and 1.57°F (0.87°C), respectively, both highest in the record. The February 2016 departures from average are also the highest for any month in the 38-year period of record, surpassing the previous record set in April 1998 by 0.13°F (0.07°C) for UAH and by 0.09°F (0.05°C) for RSS.
• The average Arctic sea ice extent for February was 450,000 square miles (7.54 percent) below the 1981–2010 average. This was the smallest February extent since records began in 1979 and 77,000 square miles smaller than the previous record of 2005. February 2016 also marked the second consecutive month of record low Arctic sea ice extent, according to analysis by the National Snow and Ice Data Center based on data from NOAA and NASA.
• Antarctic sea ice during February was 110,000 square miles (9.54 percent) below the 1981–2010 average. This was the sixth smallest Antarctic sea ice extent for February in the 38-year period of record and the smallest since 2011.
• According to data from NOAA analyzed by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during February was 800,000 square miles below the 1981–2010 average. This was the third smallest February Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in the 50-year period of record and smallest since 2002. The North American snow cover extent was the 13th smallest on record while the Eurasian snow cover extent was fourth smallest.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201602

[knocker]

NOAA Global Feb. Record - ENSO comparison.

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/noaa-global-feb-record-enso-comparison.html

[knocker]

Cooling moves of urban stations

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It has been studied over and over again, in very many ways: in global temperature datasets urban stations have about the same temperature trend as surrounding rural stations.

There is also massive evidence that urban areas are typically warmer than their surroundings. For large urban areas the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect can increase the temperature by several degrees Celsius.

A constant higher temperature due to the UHI does not influence temperature changes. However, when cities grow around a weather station, this produces an artificial warming trend.

Why don’t we see this in the urban stations of the global temperature collections? There are several reasons; the one I want to focus on in this post is that stations do not stay at the same place.

http://variable-variability.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/cooling-moves-of-urban-stations.html

[knocker]

Global NCEP/NCAR down by 0.085°C; still hot

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The NCEP/NCAR index that I calculate from their reanalysis was down by 0.085°C in March, from 0.84°C to 0.755 (anomaly base 1994-2013). February was very hot indeed, so March is still the second hottest in the record, and of course the hottest March. The early part was part of a warm peak, over 1°C. Around 9 March it dropped to about the levels of January, and pretty much stayed there, slowly bringing down the average.

You can see the regional story on the active sphere map. In the date selector on right, just click the black square at the head of the March column. In N America, the W and mid US were cool, but a band of warmth around the East coast, and through Canada to Alaska. The Arctic was warm, of course, and also a band through East to central Asia, although E Europe was cold. El Nino is still there, and elsewhere mixed.

There are other similar results. Karsten's GFS is down by just 0.02°C; UAH is down about 0.07°C. Ryan Maue reports a CFSR drop of 0.07°C. In all cases, March is still close to second hottest month ever. And the BoM tells us that Australia had the hottest March on record, even including the hottest day (for the country) on March 2 (outside summer!).

I expect to have useful TempLS surface measures in a week or so.

The pattern of a Feb peak, with drop in March and then some recovery, was also shown in various records in 1998. In fact, the similarity is striking, though I think probably coincidental in detail.

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/global-ncepncar-down-by-0085-still-hot.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

The JMA global temperature report for March is out and, as expected, it is another record by a large margin. March 2016 was +0.62C above the 81-10 average, beating the previous record set last year by +0.31C.

Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)

1st. 2016 (+0.62°C),
2nd. 2015 (+0.31°C),
3rd. 2010 (+0.28°C),
4th. 2002 (+0.26°C),
5th. 1990 (+0.25°C)

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/mar_wld.html

Edited April 14, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[knocker]

And

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

GISS data for March is out, and at +1.28C above the 51-80 average, March has set a new record, beating the previous record set in 2010 by +0.36C. It is also +0.67C above the March 1998 value.

 

Meanwhile, the rolling 12 month anomaly is now up to +0.96C.

[knocker]

NOAA data for March is out

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for March 2016 was the highest for this month in the 1880–2016 record, at 1.22°C (2.20°F) above the 20th century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F). This surpassed the previous record set in 2015 by 0.32°C / (0.58°F), and marks the highest monthly temperature departure among all 1,635 months on record, surpassing the previous all-time record set just last month by 0.01°C (0.02°F). Overall, the nine highest monthly temperature departures in the record have all occurred in the past nine months. March 2016 also marks the 11th consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken, the longest such streak in NOAA's 137 years of record keeping.

The average global temperature across land surfaces was 2.33°C (4.19°F) above the 20th century average of 3.2°C (37.8°F), the highest March temperature on record, surpassing the previous March record set in 2008 by 0.43°C (0.77°F) and surpassing the all-time single-month record set last month by 0.02°C (0.04°F) .

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201603