Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards

[Frosty.]

This is quite incredible, the Ecm 12z is like a carbon copy of today's met office update with low pressure swinging southeast from iceland towards northwest britain next friday, next thursday is the one fair day next week, nationwide. I think T+240 is going to have a trough over the top of the uk.

Edited June 19, 2013 by Frosty039

[Frosty.]

Yep the Ecm 12z ends as expected, on a low note.

[stainesbloke]

Yep the Ecm 12z ends as expected, on a low note.

A familiar pattern unfortunately though at that timescale there are plenty of opportunity for positive changes. The jet moving North should help, if it stays North.

[Frosty.]

A very poor Ecm 12z tonight with the cool unsettled weather from this weekend persisting across the eastern half of the uk until the middle of next week, then one fine day next thursday followed by rain from the northwest towards the end of next week, it just shows what will happen if the trough early next week hangs around for a few extra days, completely different to the ukmo which potentially brings a settled and warm spell as next week goes on.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Gem 12z has also moved closer to the more unsettled Ecm 12z, the Gem 00z looked much better this morning, more like the ukmo 00z-12z.

[Summer Sun]

A very poor Ecm 12z tonight with the cool unsettled weather from this weekend persisting across the eastern half of the uk until the middle of next week, then one fine day next thursday followed by rain from the northwest towards the end of next week, it just shows what will happen if the trough early next week hangs around for a few extra days, completely different to the ukmo which potentially brings a settled and warm spell as next week goes on.

 

Those after something settled need to hope UKMO and GFS are onto something along with JMA and ECM is an outlier the ensemble run should help a bit later on

 

[NeilN]

Yep the Ecm 12z ends as expected, on a low note.

 

Does this mean unsettled and bad weather and low temps e.g. in the region of 12-15c?

[Frosty.]

Those after something settled need to hope UKMO and GFS are onto something along with JMA and ECM is an outlier the ensemble run should help a bit later on

 

Exactly, the ukmo 12z is looking the best, with the gfs not far behind, one of the ongoing concerns with the gfs is it's eastward bias in dispatching next weeks pesky trough out of the way for the high to build in.

[J10]

Latest Glasto blog now uploaded.

 

Latest Glastonbury forecast now out, and this update contains a lot of detailed analysis and charts from GFS 06Hz and 12Hz runs, ECM 00 and 12Hz runs, GEFS 06Hz and 12Hz runs

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4630-glastonbury-forecast-13-19th-june/

Edited June 19, 2013 by Jackone

[Gibby]

Hi folks. Here is the report of the 12 midday output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Wednesday June 19th 2013All models remain supportive of a change to cooler and fresher conditions tomorrow and on through the rest of the week and weekend as a Low pressure area moves over the UK from the West over the weekend. After today's warmth temperatures will steadily fall away over the coming 24 hours as Atlantic winds bring cloud and rain in from the West lasting till the end of the weekend. It will be preceded by a spell of potentially thundery weather later tonight and tomorrow.GFS then shows next week as an improving pattern as High pressure builds steadily in from the Atlantic. Conditions would become fine and dry for many though Northern and Eastern parts could be at risk of more cloud and scattered showers at times as a NW flow remains present on the NE periphery of the High. FI tonight is set fair as High pressure holds firm out to the SW and West steering any cloud and occasional rain to far Northern and NE parts of the UK at times with reasonably bright and warm conditions more likely elsewhere.The GFS Ensembles show things steadily cooling off through the next 3-4 days before a recovery to more average conditions is shown. There is quite a spread in the group towards the end of the run with only patchy rain shown in the SE and nothing too significant elsewhere either.The GFS Jet Stream forecast shows the flow being maintained across the Atlantic and the British Isles for the foreseeable future albeit rather lightly at times.UKMO shows High pressure building in over the West of the UK with a light Northerly flow down the Eastern side of Britain on Tuesday with fine and dry weather in the West and a lot of dry weather in the East too but with a cool flow delivering the odd shower.GEM tonight shows High pressure building in too with a West/East split developing next week with fine and dry conditions for many, especially in the West whereas the East could be cloudier and cooler with a few showers.NAVGEM is bordering on the same theme but brings the High pressure in less significantly than the rest of the models with a slack NW flow for all through the week. A lot of dry weather would be likely with this pattern but a few showers could drift down over the North and East at times.ECM tonight is the spoiler of the party as it fails to ridge the High pressure in from the SW as much due to the slower departure of the weekend low pressure. The net result is that the ridge is quickly flattened allowing renewed Low pressure into the UK from off the Atlantic. The weather would improve steadily after a showery start to the week with several days of fair conditions before cloud and rain return from the NW in association with a UK depression to end the run.In Summary improvements look more or less guaranteed early next week as a strong ridge of High pressure moves in from the SW over the British isles towards midweek. ECM is less supportive of this pattern with unsettled weather quickly returning later in the week while the rest of the models would see a spell of weather when West would be the best, seeing the best of the warmer and dry conditions while the East, though largely dry too sees more cloud and the chance of a shower. Overall leaving ECM aside the models look like maintaining our 'OK' type summer next week with nothing spectacular shown in the way of hot weather or indeed cool weather with rainfall far less of a feature than lately. It would of been nice to of had ECM on board but we will have to wait and see what the midnight runs show.

[Frosty.]

Does this mean unsettled and bad weather and low temps e.g. in the region of 12-15c?

It looks a lot like this saturday to me, yes.

[nick sussex]

A very poor Ecm 12z tonight with the cool unsettled weather from this weekend persisting across the eastern half of the uk until the middle of next week, then one fine day next thursday followed by rain from the northwest towards the end of next week, it just shows what will happen if the trough early next week hangs around for a few extra days, completely different to the ukmo which potentially brings a settled and warm spell as next week goes on.

Yes the ECM operational especially later has me reaching for the brandy because that looks like Euro limpet troughing in the outlook.The GFS is flatter and pushes that positive anomaly to the ne away, the ECM sees that positive anomaly and thinks great drive the low between the exiting Azores high and high pressure to the far ne!We really need the GFS to be right here,I'm in no mood for more limpet Euro troughing especially after the dismal summer so far.

[Jimmy0127]

Yep the Ecm 12z ends as expected, on a low note.

 

How often do you see lower uppers in London than at the North Pole? Not far off according to ECM 240h.

 

I'm going to ignore ECM and METO for now in favour of a very nice set of GFS ensembles. Even after they diverge, there's consensus on high pressure (if marginal).

 

[NeilN]

Thanks Frosty - so a washout weekend on the cards? Oh well...we're used to it. Wouldn't mind a holiday to the Balkans...Slovenia looks VERY warm.

[Frosty.]

Yes the ECM operational especially later has me reaching for the brandy because that looks like Euro limpet troughing in the outlook.The GFS is flatter and pushes that positive anomaly to the ne away, the ECM sees that positive anomaly and thinks great drive the low between the exiting Azores high and high pressure to the far ne!We really need the GFS to be right here,I'm in no mood for more limpet Euro troughing especially after the dismal summer so far.

Yes nick it's a shocker but then, so is the met office update so it's not a total surprise really, a lot rests on the ukmo now.

Edited June 19, 2013 by Frosty039

[Panayiotis]

It does look like a pressure rise next week with places further west seeing the best of any sunshine however with the placement of the high will mean that the wind will be coming from NW/N/NE direction which will likely to have disturbances and embedded troughs bringing more cloud and rain to places (however at this date, finer details cannot be discussed).

However the MJO,unfortunately, does look like to be heading into phase 1 which suggests that after the pressure rise we will see further unsettled spells, which is similar to what the 12z ECM is showing. 

[Frosty.]

How often do you see lower uppers in London than at the North Pole? Not far off according to ECM 240h.

 

I'm going to ignore ECM and METO for now in favour of a very nice set of GFS ensembles. Even after they diverge, there's consensus on high pressure (if marginal).

 

good idea, let's hope the Gefs and the ukmo are on the ball tonight.

[Evening thunder]

Surely not..

bit of a dampener to end this one very warm summer day here, if this happens I will certainly start to feel a bit short changed.. looks like no way out of that horrid/unlucky pattern while Finland heads towards 30C again, a familiar story in recent years.

 

hopefully as other models show different we can be a bit more lucky, a middle ground wouldn't be so bad (though still may leave us with cool NW winds), but who knows perhaps the ECM will be wrong on this occasion (I hope).

[Frosty.]

Thanks Frosty - so a washout weekend on the cards? Oh well...we're used to it. Wouldn't mind a holiday to the Balkans...Slovenia looks VERY warm.

No not a complete washout, once the persistent rain clears through it looks like sunshine and showers.

[J10]

Latest Upper charts

 

At least no signs of upper troughs over the UK.

 

 

[nick sussex]

Yes nick it's a shocker but then, so is the met office update so it's not a total surprise really, all rests on the ukmo now.

Thankfully we have some time to play with as the ECM slide doesn't really start till post 168hrs. You can see the problem on the NH charts, the ECM holds that high south of Svalbard forcing low pressure to dive towards the UK.A caveat though is its at the drop into lower resolution when the GFS removes the problem high and we've seen it often lose the plot then so we best just keep our fingers crossed that the ECM pulls back tomorrow.After this years dismal spring and summer so far down here I really can understand how depressing recent summers have been for you guys in the UK because its been just awful down here.In terms of rainfall the worst weather I can remember here including winters,anyway I'd better stop moaning!

[bluearmy]

Latest Upper charts

 

At least no signs of upper troughs over the UK.

 

610day.03 19.gif 814day.03 19.gif

Pretty close to our east though !

that being a mean chart doesnt necessarily indicate no troughing over the uk but that whatever troughs get here should mve through rather than stick around too long.

[William of Walworth]

I don't think I can stand much more of this. No justice in weather!

[J10]

Pretty close to our east though !that being a mean chart doesnt necessarily indicate no troughing over the uk but that whatever troughs get here should mve through rather than stick around too long.

 

High Pressure to west is closer to troughs in east !!

 

Another west east split in the offing.

[William of Walworth]

Until we an get more updates, would anyone like to hazard an educated prediction of odds against or for that dreadful ECM stuff verifying or not? How likely is all that to retreat further away in some direction ... any direction?

 

Just when things were starting, perhaps, to look between moderately and very settled for mosty of nest week across most models, this has to happen.

 

Need science based reassurance soon! NOT demanding a mega heatwave, I'm not that unrealisitic. Just for some reduction in washout likelihood.

High Pressure to west is closer to troughs in east !!

 

Another west east split in the offing.

Hoping so more than anything else, right now. Or for a better improvement for all.