Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards

[Neilsouth]

Good old fashion British weather then which is just the job, it will be interesting to see if the high orientates in to a southerly flow at some point to bring that heat some crave!

Easterly breeze in the south with lower temps and possible cloud,sea fog?Here we go again!

[Panayiotis]

CMA is back! Showing HP building from 4th July:

Edited June 30, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Mark Parsons]

Easterly breeze in the south with lower temps and possible cloud,sea fog?Here we go again!

Yes unfortunately if you are on a windward coast it could be that way!

[Evening thunder]

Easterly breeze in the south with lower temps and possible cloud,sea fog?Here we go again!

 

Only locally for coastal areas, much of the south will do fine, for me for example an easterly breeze is much better than a southerly one for the highest temps. However some coasts are likely to be a bit cooler at times due to developing sea breezes or onshore breezes with possibly the risk of patch or two of sea fog, but you would get things like that in nearly any settled summer spell. I think it should be pleasant enough on most coasts most of the time still.

Edited June 30, 2013 by Stormmad26

[rmc1987]

It will be interesting to see how things turn out, I see the current GFS run has dropped it's temps of 27c (as per) it previously had progged for next weekend.

It is looking like we can expect a spell of settled warm weather perhaps getting close to 25c.

[Summer Sun]

The ECM Birmingham ensemble shows temperatures peaking at around 23c during next week before coming back down to average (21c) right at the end (14th)

 

 

After rainfall peaks at around 5mm on Tuesday we then see it heading downwards getting to below average

 

[Gordon Webb]

The ECM Birmingham ensemble shows temperatures peaking at around 23c during next week before coming back down to average (21c) right at the end (14th)

 

 

After rainfall peaks at around 5mm on Tuesday we then see it heading downwards getting to below average

 

 

I can live with that , not overly hot and mostly dry

[Frosty.]

I can live with that , not overly hot and mostly dry

There is every chance it will become hot though, or at least very warm with temperatures in the mid to high 20's celsius, I would not rule out 30c + during the upcoming anticyclonic spell.

[nitro_deluxe]

Yes, already up to 26c today, not far off the magic 30c. If that's your thing mind!

[Methuselah]

For once, it looks as if things might stay warm long enough for us to get used to it. I'd far rather it surpass 32C after a few weeks' warmth. Those one-day stonkers are getting harder and harder to cope with.

Edited June 30, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[Summer of 95]

Yes, already up to 26c today, not far off the magic 30c. If that's your thinh

Seriously? 19C and almost totally clouded over here!

[Summer Sun]

Seriously? 19C and almost totally clouded over here!

 

Yep 25.6c at London Heathrow - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/observations/ - scroll down to the bottom of the page

[Summer of 95]

Yep 25.6c at London Heathrow - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/observations/ - scroll down to the bottom of the page

That is more believable; it was the report from Lilleshall which is less than 20 miles from here that I was on about

[snowking]

Latter stages of ecm ens run also shows the west russian ridge sinking and retrogressing towards the azores ridge. Will we see a mean scandi/n w russian trough? If so, thats unexpected given so many lrf's had high heights to our ne for july.. There are some signals on the fi ops of this evolution with the cooler less settled conditions easing closer to the uk as our ridge returns back west.

 

Not entirely unexpected:

 

http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/July500mb.png

 

That was the projection for July as a whole from the composite years - with the added stipulation in my summer forecast of a likely settled spell around the middle third of July.

 

Whilst the absolute reality of the situation will likely differ from that above picture with the positive height anomalies to the West a little further East, the above correlates well with an MJO phase 5 projection:

 

 

Just where the ECMWF (which in recent months has been head and shoulders above the rest in terms of its MJO forecasting) hints towards us heading:

 

 

With the bias corrected ECMWF Mean taking us there a little quicker:

 

 

And the bias corrected EC32 also true to form:

 

 

It's this signal that I suspect the very end of the ECM 0z mean is beginning to hone in on. The difficulty is going to be in determining the absolute details in the longwave pattern, given the likes of the GFS et al. all floundering around with their projections, meaning that we are left only really with the ECM ensemble mean pointing us in the expected FI direction - what i'm getting at here is, don't be following NAEFS means in FI too closely for the time being.

 

GWO headed for phase 3 in the 10-15 day period, before a likely progression to phase 4 given a continued signal for low AAM. Phase 4 would suggest an overall fall in pressure hemispherically too.

 

So I suspect, just as it has done in the past few weeks, the ECM ensemble mean is picking up on the eventual signal (certainly the sort of pattern I would expect during the final 10 days of July), but delivering the final result just a little too early.

 

Once the Sceuro trough sets up, expect it to be a little bit stubborn into August too

 

SK

[DR(S)NO]

Yes, already up to 26c today, not far off the magic 30c. If that's your thing mind!

Ouch...13c and miserable here. Boo!!

[nitro_deluxe]

Ouch...13c and miserable here. Boo!!

Temps so far recorded in the SE, London area. Not quite that hot here, yet..

[phil nw.]

Will lock this thread in 5mins so hold off posting folks until the new one is opened.

[phil nw.]

OK then now closing this.

New thread here-

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77164-model-output-discussion-12z-300613/