ireland Ireland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[mountain shadow]

No let downs, just variations on the cold theme.

After the initial northerly, probably turning drier but staying cold, bitter nights.

After that, reload northerly I reckon.

[smithyweather]

Monday 3pm

 

850pha. 

 

 

H500 

 

Dew points 

 

 

 

That is the furthest I am going because the 12z is disgusting for Tuesday. 

 

 

[bsnowy]

Today's output is a little disappointing in terms of any substantial snowfall, it looks like the main thrust of the cold air is slightly east, certainly a downgrade from last night, still better than mild SW's but still a let down from the previous days.  Do you think it will change back to a more pronounced Northerly shown in previous days?

[smithyweather]

I can't believe the difference though. 

 

The whole of this week the cold has been over us and then all of a sudden it gets pushed 200 miles east. Seems a bit much. 

 

Look at the difference between the 6z and the 12z 

 

 

 

 

From -8c to -3c. I don't think so. I'm not giving up yet because that was a really random flip, I will give hope that it returns to normal on the 18z.

 

Look at what gibby just said! WTF!!! "To me this cold spell (with my 50 years experience) was only going to produce cold rain and sleet to all but the higher ground"

 

Sorry but that is complete  and utter nonsense. 

Edited November 15, 2013 by smithyweather

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Toys out of pram time, I did say to expect a downgrade in the models today, plenty of time for upgrades going forward

[smithyweather]

oh my god that model thread is a nightmare, apparently Zonal is going to be starting soon and to be honest I think your man Ian Brown is taking this time to try and wind everyone up.

 

He seems to be enjoying this. 

Toys out of pram time, I did say to expect a downgrade in the models today, plenty of time for upgrades going forward

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this run was a rouge one.

 

Did anyone notice how all the posters on the model thread are from England aswell? Never noticed that until now, anywonder they are going on about sleet, they are talking about England!

Edited November 15, 2013 by smithyweather

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Told you before FJ stick to the Ireland thread even the Scotland or Welsh threads a bit more sense in there!!

[smithyweather]

Yea not gonna go in there again. Keep telling myself that I will get a good summary but never do.

[bobbarley]

Worrying how quiet it is on here tonight, is everyone depressed over downgrades!

[bobbarley]

Oh dear my fault my phone hadn't updated since MS this morning at 8.30 see all your posts now. Still depressing models though!

[Beaufort12]

How does Tuesday's snow potential look? non-existent?

[sundog]

How many times have we seen when hunting down cold snaps/spells where one day the models like yesterday are churning out great charts only for the next day they tone things down somewhat. I was trying not to get too excited yesterday for fear of that happening. Of course who knows what they might be showing tomorrow. All one can say is it will turn colder next week but how much or the possibility of snow? Anyones guess is as good as mine or anyone elses.

[cheshire snow]

Hi all from the NW England thread hope you don't mind me posting in here..... 

 

In respect of the cold spell nothing has changed turning colder from Monday with PPN turning wintry even to low levels temporary

 

the models have had a wobble today but that is only to be expected one thing is for sure despite what some say there is no fast

 

return to Zonal conditions.

 

so to sum up Monday night-Wed Morning is when most of the wintry PPN is due then for the rest of the week staying cold but dry 

with overnight frosts

 

C.S

[smithyweather]

How does Tuesday's snow potential look? non-existent?

Well to be honest i'm not even gonna bother because i'm not sure what to think with that last run, it came out of nowhere.

 

But previous runs - Snow would've fallen to all levels. (and the met office have even said that themselves).

Current run - Snow above 300m. 

 

But i've got my fingers crossed it was a rouge run. I think if anything we are bound to see at least some improvement.

 

How many times have we seen when hunting down cold snaps/spells where one day the models like yesterday are churning out great charts only for the next day they tone things down somewhat. I was trying not to get too excited yesterday for fear of that happening. Of course who knows what they might be showing tomorrow. All one can say is it will turn colder next week but how much or the possibility of snow? Anyones guess is as good as mine or anyone elses.

But i've never seen it have such a dramatic change though. I'm not gonna lie I did expect some sort of a downgrade but to me that would've just been a shortening of the length of the cold spell by a few hours and a warming of uppers by like 2c at most. 

Edited November 15, 2013 by smithyweather

[smithyweather]

Hi all from the NW England thread hope you don't mind me posting in here..... 

 

In respect of the cold spell nothing has changed turning colder from Monday with PPN turning wintry even to low levels temporary

 

the models have had a wobble today but that is only to be expected one thing is for sure despite what some say there is no fast

 

return to Zonal conditions.

 

so to sum up Monday night-Wed Morning is when most of the wintry PPN is due then for the rest of the week staying cold but dry 

with overnight frosts

 

C.S

The cold spell is coming but the difference between the 6z and the 12z is quite substantial, on Thursday we have 7c maxes were-as we had 2c maxes in the last run. Uppers on Tuesday are upto -3c from -8c.

In 6z we had -7c uppers right out to 10west right now the -7c upper line is out at the east of newcastle. To be honest i'm scratching my head thinking 'wtf'. Like how can the -7c line move over 200 miles like that.

You would think aswell with us being further west and closer to Greenland that the cold air would end up over us instead of the north sea.

Edited November 15, 2013 by smithyweather

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Hi all from the NW England thread hope you don't mind me posting in here..... 

 

In respect of the cold spell nothing has changed turning colder from Monday with PPN turning wintry even to low levels temporary

 

the models have had a wobble today but that is only to be expected one thing is for sure despite what some say there is no fast

 

return to Zonal conditions.

 

so to sum up Monday night-Wed Morning is when most of the wintry PPN is due then for the rest of the week staying cold but dry 

with overnight frosts

 

C.S

Not at all C.S. all positive posts are always welcome

[cheshire snow]

The cold spell is coming but the difference between the 6z and 12z is quite substantial, on Thursday we have 7c maxes were-as we had 2c maxes in last run. Uppers on Tuesday are upto -3c from -8c.

In 6z we had -7c uppers right out to 10west right now the -7c upper line is out at the east of newcastle. To be honest i'm scratching my head thinking 'wtf'. Like how can the -7c line over 200 miles like that.

 

 I will be dead honest now and tell you that I use to take every single run as gospel it use to pee me of so much when

 They kept changing,one thing I have learnt over the last five years is never to take every run as gospel,its about trends and

 learning from the experienced posters in the MOD thread they are a few trust me

 When snow is forecast I never get excited anymore until its actually falling.

 Trust me good or bad the GFS 18Z will be totally different from the 12z

 anyway good luck next week hope you get the snow you so much crave 

 

 C.S

[cheshire snow]

There you go much better 18z in the early stages more amplified Totally different from the 12z

 

Edit

 

To be taken with a pinch of salt for now

 

C.S

[smithyweather]

We are back in business -8c uppers are back over us for Tuesday!! 

 

Max temp back down to 2c!

Edited November 15, 2013 by smithyweather

[bobbarley]

Roller coaster again, everything changes yet again!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

What did I warn u about today guy's downgrades then upgrades!!

[cheshire snow]

Snow for you guys Tues night/wed morning from that shortwave from the north

 

C.S

 

Sorry guys will get out of your thread and let you enjoy the run

Edited November 15, 2013 by cheshire snow

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Snow for you guys Tues night/wed morning from that shortwave from the north

 

C.S

 

Sorry guys will get out of your thread and let you enjoy the run

Nah stay dude, you r more than welcome!!

[smithyweather]

Never seen a 2c max with -1c uppers before. 

[cheshire snow]

Nah stay dude, you r more than welcome!!

 

 Ok The NW thread is so quiet at the moment Don't know why

 

 Just had a quick look at T96

 

 shows the following

 

 850,s at -8

 DP -3

 Snow entering NI

 

SUBJECT to change

 

C.S