Manmade Climate Change Discussion

[BornFromTheVoid]

Do you have the numeric data for that chart?

 

I think we should have a bet (for fun). I'd go for 2014 being a top 15 year: I guess you'd go for top five? Shall I start a thread

 

The data seems to be here http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/mann2008/mann2008.html

 

I'm all for setting up a betting thread, or perhaps a poll. Shall I presume that top 15 is for 6th to 15th?

[VillagePlank]

Fair enough though I have to admit I don't understand what you probability plot shows.

 

Question: If you have a series and you ignore end points are conclusions about its trends more valid?

 

You can't really have linear regression without end points, unfortunately.

 

It's an interesting idea, though. Here's the HadCrut4 series with the trend line computed from 15 years either side of the front and end of the series, and the starting point set to start at the same temperature at the beginning.

 

 

Shows how unusually warm it's been over recent years!

The data seems to be here http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/mann2008/mann2008.html

 

I'm all for setting up a betting thread, or perhaps a poll. Shall I presume that top 15 is for 6th to 15th?

 

Yep - that's about right. Bit of a figure out of the air from me, I will do some analysis and post a more, ahem,  thought about one

Edited February 20, 2014 by Sparkicle

[VillagePlank]

So, it can be a nice excuse to say you can't say anything?

 

That's my view, yes: a lot of people disagree with it though. The way I think about it: would I want my pension pot to be controlled by the method of statistics so commonly applied throughout the climate blogosphere? The simple answer is: no!

[knocker]

Leaving linear trends for the moment and what is nature telling us? Just a couple of examples.

 

A recent study by scientists from the University of Oxford backs up other observations of a greening Arctic. Looking across the northwest Eurasian tundra, a vast area of 100,000 square kilometres that stretches from western Siberia to Finland, they found that willow and alder shrubs have grown into trees more than two metres in height in the past 30-40 years. This can further alter the albedo, because shrubs tend to get covered in white, light-reflecting snow, but trees are tall enough to rise above the snowfall, presenting a dark, light-absorbing surface.

 

That particular study drew heavily on observations from indigenous reindeer herders, a source that scientists are increasingly utilising to reinforce the case that climate change is happening. Wilkinson admits that scientists haven't always done enough of this in the past.'There's a lot to be learned from the changes they report- they see it day in, day out, in a way that scientists can't,' he says.

 

Wilkinson and colleagues have placed sensors on the sleds of Inuit hunters to measure the thickness of the ice. They say that the ice is thinning, that they lose hunters through the ice and that they can't get to hunt walruses, and that weather patterns have changed,' he says

 

Walruses are also responding to the lack of sea ice in different ways - none of which suggest a beneficial impact from climate change. 'The walruses in the Pacific Arctic are having to haul out on land because there's no ice, so you get 40,000 huge animals stampeding and pushed together the younger animals get crushed,' says Professor Tom Arnbom of WWF International. 'We did think a lack of sea ice might help walruses, as it might make it easier for them to find mussels, but they need the ice to haul out on and rest. Now they find it difficult to forage the long distances for food.'

 

However, the biggest climate change casualties by numbers appear to be harp seal pups. According to WWF. data from Canada's Department of Fisheries show that 500,000 harp seal pups have drowned in each of the past three years because the sea ice is melting prematurely. There are ten million harp seals, so the population can withstand it for now,' says Arnbom, 'but it's the most dramatic example of climate change that I've seen.

 

Extract courtesy Geographic Magazine

 

And the study from last year that found plants on Baffin Island that have no radiocarbon in them.

 

http://phys.org/news/2013-10-unprecedented-warmth-arctic.html

Edited February 20, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

My senility is advancing quicker than I thought as I can't for the life of me remember whether this has been posted before.

 

NOAA

 

Global Analysis - January 2014

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1

Edited February 20, 2014 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

By my recent thought processes it's my senility that's advancing quicker than yours Knocks!!! It was the U.S. figures I was thinking of!

 

Sorry Sparks, I'd plump for a top 5 temp even with an ENSO Neutral! Remember the past year had a portion of Nina temps so it was not a real 'neutral' year? As it is things are looking very good for 'forecast' Nino conditions with two new long range systems both picking up on Nino indicators that our current systems do not 'weigh' ? The latest also did not predict the Nino's that our current systems did over the past two years so that has to be to their credit?

 

As things stand the weakening of the trades, whilst the 'pineapple express' brought much needed rains/snow to west coast USA, appear to have allowed a bit of a 'slosh' of that warm bulge into Nino 3/4 territory so we may see that propagate further toward the East ( along with that big bulge of warm waters at depth?), as BFTV has been updating us, so let's see what March/April brings us?

 

I take it you are not leaning toward the impacts of the strengthened Trades robbing us of 0.2c/ decade of warming then? (If so then how would you explain how  the stunted 2010 Nino, couched in Ninas, popping the record global temp bubble ( allowing for it's 4 month lag time and only 9 months in Nino territory?)?)

 

Anyhoos, as Knocks posted, we've started the year as a top 4 and I think that's with us closer to Nina than Nino?

[knocker]

In the light that it appears Roy Spencer has finally lost the plot I'm considering changing my username to herr knocker.

 

 

I’m now going to start calling these people “global warming Nazisâ€.

 

 

Roy Spencer's Dummy Spit shows his lack of education

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/02/roy-spencers-dummy-spit-shows-his-lack.html

[knocker]

McNider and Christy Style Themselves Revolutionary But Defend Inertia

http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2014/02/20/mcnider-and-christy-defend-inertia/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

P. S.

 

I've had a rethink and perhaps Unterscharführer knocker has a better ring.

[BornFromTheVoid]

In the light that it appears Roy Spencer has finally lost the plot I'm considering changing my username to herr knocker.

 

 

 

Roy Spencer's Dummy Spit shows his lack of education

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/02/roy-spencers-dummy-spit-shows-his-lack.html

 

Wow, it's really amazing to see the American right rally against an educated society. As it is, Mockton (who else) beat Spencer to proving Godwins law several years ago.

 

From about 1:10 on...

 

[Devonian]

Deleted - was wayyy OT...

Edited February 21, 2014 by Devonian

[knocker]

Dr Ricky Rood musing on the hiatus

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/show.html

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2635

 

Worth a read through methinks? Guest poster on Mr Masters thread looking at the possible signs of the development of the upcoming Nino and ways it could find itself 'super sized'.

 

It appears ( to me) that the impacts across the US are already in place ( Jet ridge west and trough East) . This may be a positive sign for our summer as the 'central Jet Ridge' has us with those nasty 'trough' years and all the flooding we saw ( 2007-2012) so it being shoved east half a cycle might favour a jet ridge to our north ( plunging into a trough from Sweden eastward so another wet mid european year?) this summer? Repeat of 03' anyone????

Edited February 21, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

For anyone interested, Michael Mann is now answering question on his AMA on reddit.  http://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/1yj3o7/science_ama_series_im_michael_e_mann/

[knocker]

I sometimes feel that even the current rise of sea level is treated very lightly by many, probably because they see no imminent threat to their own lives. But it's already affecting millions and the situation can only get worse.

 

A case in point is Bangladesh where rising sea levels in the Bay of Bengal are encroaching on the vast on the flat agricultural lands of the fertile Ganges Delta.

 

Salinity affected areas in coastal region rising sharply due to sea level rise: Study

 

The areas affected by increased salinity in the coastal region have been increasing significantly over the recent years due to rise in the sea level caused by global warming,according to a recent study.

 

Salinity is the saltiness or dissolved salt content of a body of water. It may also refer to the salt content of soil.

 

The study shows that the salt-affected areas in the coastal region of Bangladesh increased sharply, by 26.71 percent, to 950,780 hectares in 2009 from 750,350 hectares in 1973.

 

M Muslem Uddin Miah of the Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies (BCAS) carried out the study with technical support from the `National Food Policy Capacity Strengthening Programme (NFPCSP)’ of the FAO and the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, and financial support from USAID and EU.

 

The study titled `Assessing Long-term Impacts and Vulnerabilities on Crop Production due to Climate Change in the Coastal Areas of Bangladesh’ was undertaken to analyze the impacts of climate change on crop production systems and to suggest appropriate coping strategies and adaptation options for improving coastal agriculture leading to increased agricultural production and better livelihoods for the vulnerable farming community.

 

The study was conducted in ten coastal districts – Khulna, Bagerhat, Satkhira, Barisal, Bhola, Barguna, Pirojpur, Patuakhali, Cox’s Bazar and Noakhali.

The salinity level has almost doubled (2.8-18.5 to 4.0-42.8 ds/m) in Sharankhola upazila of Bagerhat district, Dumuria upazila of Khulna district and Shyamnagar upazila of Satkhira district, according to the study.

 

The study says there is an increasing trend of river water salinity (12.9-24.5 percent) in Bishkhali river at Patharghata point, Andharmanik river at Kalapara point and Paira river at Taltali point from 2001 to 2009.

 

Increase of salinity in underground water was 5.8-25.6 percent in Pirojpur and Bhola between 2005 and 2009.

 

About salt water intrusion during dry season, the study noted that 130,588.00 hectares of land was inundated due to a 41.4 cm sea level rise during the last 30 years and around 215,972.5 hectares will be inundated from a 59.34 cm sea level rise by 2050.

 

Water-logged areas have also increased significantly to 147,917.00 hectares in 2008-09 from 61,929.00 hectares in 1975-76 due to seasonal submergence, tidal surges, drainage congestion, increased roads and embankments, faulty sluice gates, increased shrimp culture under enclosure (gher) areas and heavy clay in the coastal region.

 

The study reveals that vulnerable drought- and flood-prone areas, riverbank erosion and tidal surge have increased significantly due to climate change to 152,285.00 hectates, 114,365.00 hectares, 95,324.00 hectares and 130,588.00 hectares respectively in 2008-09 compared to 1975-76.

 

About the degradation of land quality and nutrient mining, it says that the availability of phosphorus, potassium, sulphur, zinc and boron in all sites has significantly decreased over the years. But there are some indications of sulphur build up in Bhola, Pirojpur and Noakhali.

 

However, changes in nutrient status showed a significant depletion of plant nutrients supporting the overall degradation of land quality and soil fertility due to continuous cropping in the context of climate change.

 

Principal Investigator M Muslem Uddin Miah in his study said Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to disasters and climate change impacts.

 

He said that different types of natural hazards such as floods, droughts, cyclones and storm surges, tidal surges and intrusion of saline water causing salinity, increase of soil salinity and river water salinity, water-logging, tidal flooding, river bank erosion and tornadoes are significantly affecting the agriculture as well as overall socioeconomic development of the country.

 

Muslem Uddin said such vulnerabilities have direct or indirect implications on the performance of crops, livestock, fisheries and agro-forestry. The vulnerabilities due to climate change are likely to aggravate in the future.

 

In Bangladesh, over 30 percent of the net cultivable area lies in the coastal region. But these vast cultivable areas are under great threat from climate change and crop production is rapidly declining, he said.

 

Muslem Uddin observed that the Bangladesh climate is controlled primarily by summer and winter winds, and partly by pre-monsoon and post-monsoon circulation. Saline water intrusion, sea level rise, water stagnancy, cyclones and storm surges are the major climatic hazards affecting the low lying coastal areas.

UNB Jan 14

 

http://bdinn.com/articles/salinity-affected-areas-in-coastal-region-rising-sharply-due-to-sea-level-rise-study/

 

 

Changes in Sea Level and Salinity Intrusion

 

Change in the sea level at local level dependson several factors and therefore future sea level riseprojected in the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will notbe uniform all over world. One of the critical factors related to Bangladesh coast is vertical land movement (subsidence/uplift). Seasonal variation of salinity intrusion also depends on freshwater

flow in the river system and cyclonic storm surges.

 

The SAARC Meteorological Research Council (SMRC) carried out a study on recent relative sealevel rise in the Bangladesh coast. The study has used 22 years historical tidal data of the three coastalstations. The study revealed that the rate of sea level rise during the last 22 years is many fold higherthan the mean rate of global sea level rise over 100 years, which shown the important effect of the

regional tectonic subsidence. Variation among the stations was also found.

 

http://www.nfpcsp.org/agridrupal/sites/default/files/Muslem_Uddin_Miah-PR10-08.pdf

Edited February 22, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Letter in the Times.

 

Met Office report

 

Sir, The Met Office has produced a report (Feb 9; http://bit.ly/1mhW1sJ) on this winter’s stormy weather and how it links to rainfall in Indonesia and exceptionally cold weather over the US (“Met Office science chief attacked for climate claimâ€, Feb 18).

 

We have looked at the potential influence of climate change and all the evidence from observations, theory and models which show that a warming world leads to more intense daily and hourly rainfall. When we add rising sea levels, then the risk to our communities from serious flooding and coastal inundation are increasing with climate change.

 

What we have not said, because that is a matter of ongoing research, is that the recent storms are definitively linked to climate change.

 

The UK has always been buffeted by Atlantic storms and it is reasonable to expect occasional extremes. Now, however, we are being asked whether we are seeing more extremes, more often. This is a matter for urgent and pressing research — which the Met Office, with its world-leading scientists and academic partners, is well placed to undertake.

 

Professor Dame Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief Scientist;

Professor Stephen Belcher, Met Office Hadley Centre;

Professor Adam Scaife, Monthly to decadal forecasting;

Dr Mark Mccarthy, National Climate Information Centre

 

http://www.thetimes....icle4012538.ece

[knocker]

An example of all that's rotten in the discourse on climate change. People like John O'Sullivan

 

"MICHAEL MANN FACES BANKRUPTCY AS HIS COURTROOM CLIMATE CAPERS COLLAPSE"

http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/michael-mann-faces-bankruptcy-as-his_21.html

[Gray-Wolf]

I can find no reports in the ( vested interest funded) red top news outlets Knocks? Is this just a pack of lies? Is that not a dangerous game to play with a Mann , so enraged with the lies and deceit used by denialists against him, that he has already turned litigious?

 

Maybe it is strangely prophetic but corrupt in that it is Sullivan who now faces bankruptcy from the ensuing court case that this misguidance bring whilst a trail is being heard?

[knocker]

I shouldn't look too hard GW O'Sullivan's a nutter. Read some of the other stunts he's pulled. On second thoughts don't waste your time.

[Gray-Wolf]

I shouldn't look too hard GW O'Sullivan's a nutter. Read some of the other stunts he's pulled. On second thoughts don't waste your time.

 

I've just done some reading up on him and he sounds a proper 'Monkton' ! Buys a law degree when he finds Mann suing ,claims all kinds of wild things about himself. Was tried, and acquitted for molesting a school girl ( as a teacher) only to then write a book about how to end up with a school girl lollita whilst being a teacher????  

 

You couldn't make it up!!!......... Unless you are a lead Denier then then it appears to be the accepted way to go!

 

How can folk align with such depravity?

[knocker]

Today's cartoon

 

Hobbyist science deniers

 

Significantly Iwazaru is absent

 

Credit Andrew Refkin.

[BornFromTheVoid]

[Gray-Wolf]

Whether you see the practical  application of fracking as environmentally unsound or not surely the 'signal' of B.A.U. of fossil fuel use is still the abhorrent side of this practice?

 

There is no getting away from the fact that CO2 levels in the atmosphere are now a danger to our futures so any move toward doubling current levels ( and so much more) needs to be resisted?

[knocker]

Psysh Glacier Retreat, Western Caucasus, Russia

http://glacierchange.wordpress.com/2014/02/23/psysh-glacier-retreat-western-caucasus-russia/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[knocker]

 

Texas Officials Turn Blind Eye To Fracking Industry's Toxic Air Emissions

http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20140218/texas-officials-turn-blind-eye-fracking-industrys-toxic-air-emissions

[knocker]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-56#entry2937934

 

 

This is a good read.

 

Not a patch on Hans Christian Andersen.

 

I see he starts off with the usual quote from Richard Feynman. And then says, wait for it.........................

 

 

Facts are climate warmists don't have the science on their side, not even close. The tactics used by the "warmists" are more appropriate for playground bullies and Medieval inquisitors than real scientists. Ridicule isn't a debating tactic used by those who can defend their position on the facts, ridicule is a smoke screen to distract from the fact that they can't debate their topic on a scientist basis. I've studied the "science" behind climate change for years, and what I've learned over those years is that people that believe in man made climate change have never bothered to look into the "science" that supports it. Ask any warmist to explain how CO2 can cause climate change if it isn't through warming, and they can't. Ask any warmist almost anything about the "science" behind climate change and you will almost certainly get the answer "there's a scientific consensus."

 

I've never read so much drivel since yesterday. But wait for it, is he a climate scientist? Not quite.

 

Description: Independent / boutique research firm analyst. Trading frequency: Infrequent

 

I'm reaching for an icicle............................

 

Why oh why do are these people allowed weekend passes?

Edited February 23, 2014 by knocker