Scepticism Of Man Made Climate Change

[keithlucky]

Brilliant info, keith...But how does it relate to CC scepticism?

Not allowed to post on other threads the heavy bother boys move in

Edited October 3, 2013 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

Brilliant info, keith...But how does it relate to CC scepticism?

Its does relate to this thread because much time have been given to these wild laughable GW predictions

Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?

Seth Borenstein in Washington

Associated Press

December 12, 2007

This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.â€

Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?

the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer of 2013

- John Kerry, US Secretary of State

John Kerry: We Can’t Ignore the Security Threat from Climate Change

[Interitus]

Its does relate to this thread because much time have been given to these wild laughable GW predictions

Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?

Seth Borenstein in Washington

Associated Press

December 12, 2007

This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.â€

 

 

And it was - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20120918.jpg

Suppose it depends on the definition of nearly.

[keithlucky]

And it was - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20120918.jpg

Suppose it depends on the definition of nearly.

Well i suppose 1.32 million square miles, or 24 percent at the end of August 2012 is very near to zero ice lol.

[Fergus Brown]

Hello all.

So, a few years on and nothing much seems to have changed.

Parmenides would have been pleased.

 

In response to Keith (?) about glaciers: http://whogoeswithfergus.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/on-rocks-no-ice.html

 

The paper is linked and is open access. So you can read it if you want.

 

Basically, it says ; most of the glacial and ice cap ice is melting steadily. It's been measured lots of times in lots of different ways. This new paper suggest that the rate of ablation has previously been underestimated and gives its reasons why. It also mentions as a by-blow that the consequential future sea level rise from ice melt alone has also been underestimated.

 

General question: why is the planet losing ice?

[keithlucky]

Considering the amount of times the word Arctic appears in the IPPC"s report a thousand times or more they fail to notice the spectacular ice gains made there in the last few weeks up to 2006 levels.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

Edited October 4, 2013 by keithlucky

[stewfox]

Considering the amount of times the word Arctic appears in the IPPC"s report a thousand times or more they fail to notice the spectacular ice gains made there in the last few weeks up to 2006 levels.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

 

I think its down to this summers unusual cool weather up there ??

 

I think if it shrinks back next year its back to climate change ?  and 'death spirals'

 

I have no idea what they call it if the artic ice shows a higher minimum next yr cf this year , more unseasonal weather ?? 

 

I would assume 15 yrs of unseasonal weather and higher mins would be significantly insignificant ???

[Fergus Brown]

...Er Keith...

It's Autumn. The ice always comes back. Just not quite as much as it used to. Then it goes away again. Think 'trends' rather than 'seasons'.

Arctic sea ice cover is on a steady, consistent, persistent decline. this is unarguable.

If you come back with 'but there's plenty in the Antarctic', you need to read some of the literature to understand why it works that way, and why it doesn't make any difference to the overall picture, which is that there is less ice than there used to be...

[Fergus Brown]

or 

Edited October 4, 2013 by Fergus Brown

[john pike]

This summer, Arctic sea ice loss was held in check by relatively cool and stormy conditions. As a result, 2013 saw substantially more ice at summer’s end, compared to last year’s record low extent. The Greenland Ice Sheet also showed less extensive surface melt than in 2012. Meanwhile, in the Antarctic, sea ice reached the highest extent recorded in the satellite record.

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

[Midlands Ice Age]

Fergus 

Fergus,

Sorry I was about to point out your first graph was up to 2008.

You're last graph (to 2013) DOES go above the medium line shown

 

MIA

[stewfox]

 

...Er Keith...

It's Autumn. The ice always comes back. Just not quite as much as it used to. Then it goes away again. Think 'trends' rather than 'seasons'.

Arctic sea ice cover is on a steady, consistent, persistent decline. this is unarguable.

If you come back with 'but there's plenty in the Antarctic', you need to read some of the literature to understand why it works that way, and why it doesn't make any difference to the overall picture, which is that there is less ice than there used to be...

 

 

We are at the highest level since 2006 so not sure how that relates to a season ?? We are of course relatively in a poor way cf 1980s but as we have only data going back to 1979 lets see what happens in the next few years.

 

Re Antarctic perhaps you want to advice the IPCC, there latest report basically says they haven't a clue why the Antarctica ice is expanding it doesn't agree with their model forecasting, page 11.

 

-------------

 

Most models

simulate a small downward trend in Antarctic sea ice extent, albeit with large inter-model

spread, in contrast to the small upward trend in observations. {9.4}

ï‚·

----------

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf

 

 I'm also not sure why you think global sea ice is unimportant ?? Global sea ice levels are not far of what they use to be in the 1980s

Edited October 4, 2013 by stewfox

[Midlands Ice Age]

Just come back from hols and am catching up on the threads.

Just going back thru the thread about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season and noticed an interesting blog  from memory Knocker.

It talks about tree ring proxies in Turkey  (just 1000 miles away from Atlantic), but is never the less interesting.

In its summaries it states-

 

It found evidence in the results for a medieaval watming period

also for the Little Ice Age which lasted until the 19th century and the warm up since then, but it states not for any more recent warming . Now this strikes me as being quite an accurate set of results and reflects what most believe. (However not the hockey stick brigade). They also found out that this was correct for trees at low level but NOT for trees with any height.

 

Their assessment at the end says they need to do more research as they think there is more to learn from the data

 

MIA

 

[Fergus Brown]

 

 

 

 

We are at the highest level since 2006 so not sure how that relates to a season ?? We are of course relatively in a poor way cf 1980s but as we have only data going back to 1979 lets see what happens in the next few years.

 

Re Antarctic perhaps you want to advice the IPCC, there latest report basically says they haven't a clue why the Antarctica ice is expanding it doesn't agree with their model forecasting, page 11.

 

-------------

 

Most models

simulate a small downward trend in Antarctic sea ice extent, albeit with large inter-model

spread, in contrast to the small upward trend in observations. {9.4}

ï‚·

----------

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf

 

 I'm also not sure why you think global sea ice is unimportant ?? Global sea ice levels are not far of what they use to be in the 1980s

 

Hi Stew,

Trends, observe the trends. Climate is about trends. What is the trend?

 

Re Antarctic; the models do not capture well. This is known and understood. What is also known and understood is that, because the Antarctic is (broadly) a self-contained system, it does not respond to GW in the same way as the Arctic. However, work such as that done at Pine Island and the Thwaites Glacier (amongst others) suggests that parts of the area at least are showing signs of a response to the changing global climate.

 

I'm not sure why you seem to think the changes in the Arctic, Greenland, and most of the world's glaciers and ice caps are not significant - is there something you're not telling us?

[knocker]

Just come back from hols and am catching up on the threads.

Just going back thru the thread about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season and noticed an interesting blog  from memory Knocker.

It talks about tree ring proxies in Turkey  (just 1000 miles away from Atlantic), but is never the less interesting.

In its summaries it states-

 

It found evidence in the results for a medieaval watming period

also for the Little Ice Age which lasted until the 19th century and the warm up since then, but it states not for any more recent warming . Now this strikes me as being quite an accurate set of results and reflects what most believe. (However not the hockey stick brigade). They also found out that this was correct for trees at low level but NOT for trees with any height.

 

Their assessment at the end says they need to do more research as they think there is more to learn from the data

 

MIA

 

 

I assume this the paper to which you refer MIA.

 

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1702-3

[john pike]

 

 

 

 

a link??

 

now look at this

 

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n8/full/ngeo1886.html

 

http://eqseis.geosc.psu.edu/~cammon/HTML/Classes/IntroQuakes/Notes/plate_tect01.html

 

https://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/papers2/deconto_tectonics&climate.pdf

 

 

Mid-Ocean Ridges

Did you know that the Earth’s longest mountain range is underwater? The Mid-Ocean Ridge system, shown above snaking its way between the continents, is more than 56,000 kilometers (35,000 mi) long. This series of mountains and valleys marks where the Earth’s crustal plates are moving apart.
images/Midoceanridge.jpg
The driving force behind the process of plate tectonics is heat generated deep inside the earth’s core by radioactive decay. This heat reaches the surface primarily along the Mid-Ocean Ridge. One of the earth’s most dramatic topographical features, the Mid-Ocean Ridge is a continuous range of undersea mountains more than 12,000 feet high and 1,200 miles wide winding through 40,000 miles of the world’s oceans. It is here, at Mid-Ocean Ridges, that new sea-floor crust is produced and much of the earth’s internal heat is released.

http://www.platetectonics.com/book/page_8.asp

 

very easy to call co2 raising the lower sea temps after reading that lot?

 

 

also

 

 sea level rises causing flooding ?

 

Tectonic movement more likely cause of island flooding

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/radio/program/pacific-beat/tectonic-movement-more-likely-cause-of-island-flooding/1178394

 

 

i cannot be bothered re volcanoes effecting the climate as done a long post on that before which was totally ignored

 

funny volcanoes are being mentioned now by the ipcc to suit the cooling

 

and that includes the sun in the above statement

 

re glacier melt

 

Increased glacial melt due to volcanic ash

http://en.vedur.is/hydrology/articles/nr/2110

 

and

 

These first high temporal and spatial resolution findings show that interactions between surficial ice melt, ash coverage and surface roughness elements are complex, and depend to some extent on antecedent conditions. The interplay between these controls is driven by atmospheric forcing, but without considering the time sequence over which melt and redistribution occurs, surface energy balance models may not capture ash redistribution threshold responses and may under predict ablation rates. Once a redistribution threshold is exceeded, the spatial feedback between albedo lowering and thermal insulation results in the generation and deterioration of surface roughness features and ash patchiness, further complicating ablation predictions. Our work highlights the need for high resolution spatial and temporal studies that encompass whole surface change, rather than point-based measurements to improve predictions of glacier response to climate and volcanic events.

 

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/esp.3352/full

 

 

 

not always man made

 

i can go on and on with this

 

anyway last post for a while

[Fergus Brown]

If that is indeed the aforementioned paper, My question to MIA (and perhaps knocker (we haven't met...), is 'what do you think this paper tells us about global climate change?'

[Fergus Brown]

 

 

 

 

a link??

 

now look at this

 

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n8/full/ngeo1886.html

 

http://eqseis.geosc.psu.edu/~cammon/HTML/Classes/IntroQuakes/Notes/plate_tect01.html

 

https://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/papers2/deconto_tectonics&climate.pdf

 

 

Mid-Ocean Ridges

Did you know that the Earth’s longest mountain range is underwater? The Mid-Ocean Ridge system, shown above snaking its way between the continents, is more than 56,000 kilometers (35,000 mi) long. This series of mountains and valleys marks where the Earth’s crustal plates are moving apart.

images/Midoceanridge.jpg

The driving force behind the process of plate tectonics is heat generated deep inside the earth’s core by radioactive decay. This heat reaches the surface primarily along the Mid-Ocean Ridge. One of the earth’s most dramatic topographical features, the Mid-Ocean Ridge is a continuous range of undersea mountains more than 12,000 feet high and 1,200 miles wide winding through 40,000 miles of the world’s oceans. It is here, at Mid-Ocean Ridges, that new sea-floor crust is produced and much of the earth’s internal heat is released.

http://www.platetectonics.com/book/page_8.asp

 

very easy to call co2 raising the lower sea temps after reading that lot?

 

 

also

 

 sea level rises causing flooding ?

 

Tectonic movement more likely cause of island flooding

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/radio/program/pacific-beat/tectonic-movement-more-likely-cause-of-island-flooding/1178394

 

 

i cannot be bothered re volcanoes effecting the climate as done a long post on that before which was totally ignored

 

funny volcanoes are being mentioned now by the ipcc to suit the cooling

 

and that includes the sun in the above statement

 

re glacier melt

 

Increased glacial melt due to volcanic ash

http://en.vedur.is/hydrology/articles/nr/2110

 

and

 

These first high temporal and spatial resolution findings show that interactions between surficial ice melt, ash coverage and surface roughness elements are complex, and depend to some extent on antecedent conditions. The interplay between these controls is driven by atmospheric forcing, but without considering the time sequence over which melt and redistribution occurs, surface energy balance models may not capture ash redistribution threshold responses and may under predict ablation rates. Once a redistribution threshold is exceeded, the spatial feedback between albedo lowering and thermal insulation results in the generation and deterioration of surface roughness features and ash patchiness, further complicating ablation predictions. Our work highlights the need for high resolution spatial and temporal studies that encompass whole surface change, rather than point-based measurements to improve predictions of glacier response to climate and volcanic events.

 

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/esp.3352/full

 

 

 

not always man made

 

i can go on and on with this

 

anyway last post for a while

Hi John,

best not - I used to do this kind of thing quite a lot, you may recall. A nice stab, but oceanic volcanism does not account for recent OHC changes at 0-700m.

Note also the sentence in the paper on ash which you quote 'The interplay between these controls is driven by atmospheric forcing'.

 

Volcanoes have always been part of the science. 

Solar influence (or lack of) has also likewise been factored in for a long time.

 

Either sea level is rising or it is not. Which is it? Lots of things cause flooding.

 

The science which is the basis of AR5 is extensive (comprehensive?) and the evidence overwhelming. Why are you so sure that it is wrong?

 

 

[john pike]

with respect mate

 

how are you so sure what you see re agw is correct

 

nature is proving that it is effecting agw more than was predicted

 

the 0-700 means nothing over the time it has been recorded

 

not being funny mate but this is for people to post the sceptic of man made science

 

you sound like you should be over on the other thread

[john pike]

 

my final bit because i cannot be bothered with the agw theory

 

the above could easily be a natural process

 

note the reliable start date 2005

[Fergus Brown]

In answer to your questions above:

 

How am I so sure? - I studied the subject for several years and reached the conclusion that a lot of people who are more expert than me have a lot of good reasons and evidence for AGW - therefore, both independently and in agreement with the evidence, i concluded that AGW is real.

 

I didn't really get points 2 and 3, but I guess you don't really want to know.

 

I'm sorry, I didn't realise I was in the wrong playground.

 

So this isn't a thread for discussion, then, only agreement about scepticism. Fair enough. I'll go away. 

 

Have fun.

 

By the way, I haven't been here a while, what are the new rules? Where's my bit of the playground?

[john pike]

last one

 

read this

 

http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/01/ipcc-solar-variations-dont-matter/

 

 

then this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change

 

Although volcanoes are technically part of the lithosphere, which itself is part of the climate system, the IPCC explicitly defines volcanism as an external forcing agent.^[46]

[Fergus Brown]

I'll let you go, honest...

 

I agree. They are a forcing agent and a cooling one. They don't account for the changes, though.

 

I also know Judith Curry, I have in the past exchanged emails with her on the subject of AMOC. 

 

Haven't done volcanoes for a while - must catch up...

 

Best wishes

[john pike]

hi fergus

 

welcome to net weather

 

they split the threads as they always get a bit heated

 

sorry if i seemed a bit blunt earlier

 

just a point re volcanoes

 

they do  release a lot of co2 as well which can add to the heating

 

anyway welcome and talk soon

 

john 

Edited October 4, 2013 by john pike

[Fergus Brown]

Hi John,

 

Thanks for the welcome... though I have been here before (check my tagline/signature).

 

I promise I'll take a look at some volcano stuff and get back to you. If it's interesting it might go on my new blog. (link in profile?)

 

Promise I never get heated, had a bit of a rep. for being civilised and reasonable. Always try to respect everyone, each person has the right to their own opinion, but also think this issue is important enough to try and make a small difference (if I can) to the layman's attitude to AGW. In other words, I like to plug my own line, too