Scepticism Of Man Made Climate Change

[UV-RAY]

Coldest start to Arctic summer since DMI records began in 1958 http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Coldest start to Arctic summer since DMI records began in 1958 http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Very early days but this is quite fascinating compared to recent times, has the pendulum finally swung the other way and we could now be observing the first signs of a major recovery. IMO I think we are, but I'll reserve my excitement until the end of the melt season. Edited June 18, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[keithlucky]

Arctic sea ice 1,00O.000 sq km above last year Higher than 2110

[Jax]

Very early days but this is quite fascinating compared to recent times, has the pendulum finally swung the other way and we could now be observing the first signs of a major recovery. IMO I think we are, but I'll reserve my excitement until the end of the melt season.

I would too as it is only half way through and even though the trend is colder in the last 100 days, the majority prior to that was above, but I am happy to see a potential showing of a cooling trend, just have to wait and see for now.

[Jimmy0127]

There is mathematical evidence that climate models can do a better job than weather models.

 

The easiest way to understand this, without resorting to mathturbation, is to consider an analogy. If you are a golfer (and I'm not) and you drive the ball down the fairway using exactly the same swing, exactly the same force (etc) then do you expect the ball to land in exactly the same place? Of course you don't, but if you hit quite a number of balls in exactly the same way, then what you'll notice is that where the balls land converge around a point. You might not have actually been aiming for that point, and you may never have hit that point, but nevertheless, they will converge around a point.

 

This is the same as climate models (and numerical weather ensemble modelling) This is a relatively new(ish) approach (see Taylor 2001, Delle Monache et al 2006a, Palmer et al 2005, Wilks 2006) for weather leading to a concept called a superensemble.

 

The question is are the climate models that we have so far actually doing this? And are they having success at doing this? It's the classic validation, verfication problem: ie are we building the models right? are we building the right models?

 

Oh go on - give us the maths!

 

Couldn't find the paper - do you have a link perchance?

 

Presumably ensembles and statistics aren't going to solve the problem that your forecasts are only as good as your data and your formulas. It's surely a matter of timescales and how much evidence has gone into your formulas. If you're modelling a system with an infinite number of expressions, surely the only way to advance is trial and improvement.

 

Golf analogy:

 

"exactly the same swing, exactly the same force (etc)" - what is etc? There are an infinite number of contributions to the climate, the more that are considered, the better will be the forecast, regardless of the statistical distribution of the latest model's ensemble outcomes. Surely the logical conclusion otherwise would be a regression to maximum uncertainty.

 

Should we put in a term describing wind? - Yes, that improves the verification

Should we put in a term describing spin? - likewise

Should we put in a term describing the rivals banter? - no, Jimmy's as cool as a cucumber on the golf course.

Does the wind affect the spin, etc etc.

 

You can only work out how variables work in this system by historical evidence, and climate is so long term that this trial and improvement process is almost non existent compared with meteorology.

Edited June 21, 2013 by Jimmy0127

[keithlucky]

Ice free Arctic in the summer of 1962 if this happened now there be millions of people with placards "The end of the world we all doomed ."A history of when submarines have surfaced in the North Pole http://www.csp.navy.mil/asl/Timeline.htm

Edited June 24, 2013 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

Arctic Sea ice the most since 2004

[BornFromTheVoid]

Ice free Arctic in the summer of 1962 if this happened now there be millions of people with placards "The end of the world we all doomed ."A history of when submarines have surfaced in the North Pole http://www.csp.navy.mil/asl/Timeline.htm

 

But I see lots of ice in that photo?

As for your mention of placards, perhaps best to leave out the inflammatory stuff?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Arctic Sea ice the most since 2004

 

C'mon, you can do better than that! We're currently above 1995 going by the NSIDC extent!

 

Can I ask where that sunshinehours thing get their sea ice data from?

[keithlucky]

C'mon, you can do better than that! We're currently above 1995 going by the NSIDC extent!

 

Can I ask where that sunshinehours thing get their sea ice data from?

From ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

Change north to south for Antarctica..

[loafer]

I personally think this is over the top and that most scientists who make mistakes or develop mistaken hypotheses are doing it for the right reasons, but this is quite funny...

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100222487/when-it-comes-to-climate-change-we-have-to-trust-our-scientists-because-they-know-lots-of-big-scary-words/

Whither the weather? As you may have heard, a conference of national forecasters assembled this week in Exeter: to discuss the future of the British climate, following the spate of harsher than expected winters, and unusually wet summers, since 2007.

Already, commentators are asking if global warming is to blame. In particular, some are wondering if the direction of the Jet Stream is being altered by Arctic ice melt. Others are speculating that natural variations, such as the “Atlantic multi-decadal oscillationâ€, might be responsible for recent evolutions.

However, most of this reportage has been second-hand. Unprecedentedly, I had direct access to the meteorologists concerned, as I was in Exeter in spirit form, and I managed to speak to the principal actors.

First, I asked Stephen Belcher, the head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, whether the recent extended winter was related to global warming. Shaking his famous “ghost stickâ€, and fingering his trademark necklace of sharks’ teeth and mammoth bones, the loin-clothed Belcher blew smoke into a conch, and replied,

“Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.â€

Startled by this sobering analysis, I moved on to Professor Rowan Sutton, Climate Director of NCAS at the University of Reading. Professor Sutton said that many scientists are, as of this moment, examining the complex patterns in the North Atlantic, and trying to work out whether the current run of inclement European winters will persist.

When pressed on the particular outlook for the British Isles. Professor Sutton shook his head, moaned eerily unto the heavens, and stuffed his fingers into the entrails of a recently disembowelled chicken, bought fresh from Waitrose in Teignmouth.

Hurling the still-beating heart of the chicken into a shallow copper salver, Professor Sutton inhaled the aroma of burning incense, then told the Telegraph: “The seven towers of Agamemnon tremble. Much is the discord in the latitude of Gemini. When, when cry the sirens of doom and love. Speckly showers on Tuesday.â€

It’s a pretty stark analysis, and not without merit. There are plenty of climate change scientists who are equally forthright on the possibilities of change, or no change, and of more hot, or less hot, or of rain, or no rain, or of Britain turning into the Sahara by next weekend, or instead becoming a freezing cold Frostyworld ruled by a strange, glistening ice-queen – crucially, it all depends on the time of day you ask them, and whether or not they had asparagus the day before.

So who are we to believe? For a final word, I turned to the greatest climate change scientist of all, Dr David Viner, one-time senior research scientist at the climatic research unit of the University of East Anglia, who predicted in 2000 that, within a few years, winter snowfall would become "a very rare and exciting event".

However, he was trapped under a glacier in Stockport, so was unable to comment at the time the Telegraph went to press.

[VillagePlank]

<snip>

Edited June 29, 2013 by Sparkicle

[UV-RAY]

The Yamal dataset series is dead, long live the next fudged dataset. 

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/28/hey-ya-mal-mcintyre-was-right-cru-abandons-yamal-superstick/

[keithlucky]

Coldest Actic record summer continues http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

. Previous coldest record summer was 2004 (red line)but 2013 even colder.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Coldest Actic record summer continues http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

. Previous coldest record summer was 2004 (red line)but 2013 even colder.

 

But just to be clear, that's only for north of 80N, not the Arctic.

[songster]

But just to be clear, that's only for north of 80N, not the Arctic.

And it's a model, not data.

[thetonynator]

And it's a model, not data.

PIOMAS volume is a model and it gets quoted like gospel around here.

[songster]

PIOMAS volume is a model and it gets quoted like gospel around here.

Not by me *shrug*

[keithlucky]

Arctic ice in western Arctic 3rd most concentrated ice pack  ever recorded http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHACTWA/20130624180000_CVCHACTWA_0007128988.gif

Edited July 2, 2013 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

We have heard time and time again about the great melt of the Greenland ice sheet they have just had there hottest week of summer at -23c

[keithlucky]

Arctic temperatures have been below normal everyday for the last 3 months http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Edited July 4, 2013 by keithlucky

[Methuselah]

Arctic temperatures have been below normal everyday for the last 3 months http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Thing is, keith...I can't see what that's supposed to say about man-made climate change? By all means, highlight the slowdown/hiatus in global warming; but one-off cold/warm spells in small corners of the planet?

 

IMO, a few cold months in the High Arctic say as much about AGW as does a hot spell in Arizona: almost nothing?

Edited July 4, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[keithlucky]

Thing is, keith...I can't see what that's supposed to say about man-made climate change? By all means, highlight the slowdown/hiatus in global warming; but one-off cold/warm spells is small corners of the planet?

 

IMO, a few cold months in the High Arctic say as much about AGW as does a hot spell in Arizona: almost nothing?

I know that but with Sea ice well above previous years,

arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.global.anom.1979-2008

 

  it shows that with increased CO2 in the atmosphere CO2 has no effect on the climate.So there"s other natural reasons for changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice.

Edited July 4, 2013 by keithlucky

[Methuselah]

I know that but with Sea ice well above previous years,

arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.global.anom.1979-2008

 

  it shows that with increased CO2 in the atmosphere CO2 has no effect on the climate.So there"s other natural reasons for changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice.

No, it doesn't - it shows that there's been a cold spell in the High Arctic...

[jethro]

This thread is for those sceptical of climate change, it is not to debate the issue, nor quibble with those who are sceptical. All those in favour of manmade climate change, have their own thread to discuss the issues in.

[Methuselah]

This thread is for those sceptical of climate change, it is not to debate the issue, nor quibble with those who are sceptical. All those in favour of manmade climate change, have their own thread to discuss the issues in.

That's good. Scepticism is essential...