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 In the Midlands, I remember FIVE nice days - three of them I was ill in bed with a virus that had me ill for two weeks.

 

 

That sounds about right!  My records show we had only 6 days without rain last June - while December somehow managed to be wetter, we did at least get 10 days without rain then.  I'm not even sure those 6 days were sunny.  To add insult to injury, in August we only had 5 dry days.  July wasn't brilliant by any means, but wasn't too bad compared to June and August.  I'd take a repeat of July 2012 if it was sandwiched between another June 2010 and August 1995 :)

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That sounds about right!  My records show we had only 6 days without rain last June - while December somehow managed to be wetter, we did at least get 10 days without rain then.  I'm not even sure those 6 days were sunny.  To add insult to injury, in August we only had 5 dry days.  July wasn't brilliant by any means, but wasn't too bad compared to June and August.  I'd take a repeat of July 2012 if it was sandwiched between another June 2010 and August 1995 Posted Image

 

The same here! I wouldn't mind a 2008/2010 outcome to be fair - decentish summers. Those five days - they were all warm and sunny. My vague memories of 1993 when I was about 8/9 was a wet summer...2012 out did it and there is evidence. 

 

Not a vintage year...and even on a personal level too.

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While the above comment of only 2 summers since 2000 in Wales being above average [514hr 1981-2010] is correct these being 2005 and 2006 as correctly identified above. 

 

However 2000,2001,2003, 2009,2010,2011 each had over 500 hours of sunshine, all above 97% of the average, so realistically these were pretty much bang on normal in terms of sunshine hours. 2008 and 2012 were the ones notable for being way below the rest.

 

Even this though hides a quite common pattern, in general terms June has tended to be a very sunny month,

1999 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 were each above average (1981-2010) (although 1999 and 2005, only just above average)

 

July saw only 1999 2000 2005 2006 2011 above average sunshine, with only 1999 and 2006 being decently above average, although in the case of 2006, it was massively above average.

 

August saw only 2000 2003 2005 2007 above average, with 2005 being the most notably sunny month.

 

So these has been a pattern in local summers over the past decade, that June has generally* been sunny, (although not technically summer Mays haven't been that bad either) before fading away somewhat in July and August.

 

* Clearly this doesn't apply to all years notably 2012.

 

The last good summers were 2005/2006, but 2009-2011 but pretty much average, so if we cannot have another summer like 2006, I'd take once like 2009-2011.

Edited by Jackone
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That sounds about right!  My records show we had only 6 days without rain last June - while December somehow managed to be wetter, we did at least get 10 days without rain then.  I'm not even sure those 6 days were sunny.  To add insult to injury, in August we only had 5 dry days.  July wasn't brilliant by any means, but wasn't too bad compared to June and August.  I'd take a repeat of July 2012 if it was sandwiched between another June 2010 and August 1995 Posted Image

 

Remarkably the first 10 days of the school holidays were the best part of the summer. With my job it tends to be busy early part of the summer, and I have tended to take summer leave late in the summer, which going by the above, hasn't worked out that well.

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I must say the charts going into the summer and the early projections for it are the best ive seen since 2006 imo. There are quite consistent signals imo for more blocking just to our North East esp June and maybe July thus far. Certainly no signal so far for a trough slap bang over us. After the last 6 summers we really do deserve a proper good one now. Not just ok though even that will suffice!

Edited by Blizzards
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I must say the charts going into the summer and the early projections for it are the best ive seen since 2006 imo. There are quite consistent signals imo for more blocking just to our North East esp June and maybe July thus far. Certainly no signal so far for a trough slap bang over us. After the last 6 summers we really do deserve a proper good one now. Not just ok though even that will suffice!

 

I wouldnt read too much into long-range stuff at the moment. Take this chart for example:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2006/Rrea00120060521.gif

 

Who would have guessed what was to come looking at that?

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A very pleasent drive into work this morning but one thing very noticable is that most trees still look like midwinter.

There were some in my local park which started to turn at the end of last August so any that do get into full leaf could only be for 2 or 3 months at best.

Strange times we live in!

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I wouldnt read too much into long-range stuff at the moment. Take this chart for example:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2006/Rrea00120060521.gif

 

Who would have guessed what was to come looking at that?

Of course im not ruling any low pressure spells like that out. In fact that would be part of our normal summer! But I dont see the incessant low pressure that weve endured in recent summers.

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Certainly non of this garbage showing up on the models. Seeing the pleasing charts of the coming week makes me realize how bad last year was.

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

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Ugh horrible chart that one was for June! I was so lucky to have been out the country for 50% of the month both in Slovenia for work (where it was hot, sunny with thunderstorms) and Barcelona for a holiday (where it was hot & sunny of course).

No such trip this year and wedding day 22nd and at altitude in the Peak District. Can only hope late June really is flaming June this time round!

But we can never tell so best enjoy this coming week best we can. Bit unfortunate that I'm spending this bank hol doing (indoor) work for wedding whereas late May holiday is the stag/hen weekends... just watch that rain pour.... (please no!).

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Well the majority of this month is looking awful IMO if the MetO 16-30 dayer update is to be believed, lets hope we see an end to the cool/unsettled weather from the 1st June onwards.

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Well the majority of this month is looking awful IMO if the MetO 16-30 dayer update is to be believed, lets hope we see an end to the cool/unsettled weather from the 1st June onwards.

 

Well it certainly aint unsettled at the minute. All I see for the next couple of weeks is a mean +ve pressure anomaly somewhere across the mid latitudes in the vicinity of the UK. If any unsettled weather comes about it'll most likely be due to LP drifting up from the S or anchored to the W bringing the risk of thundery weather.

 

I've been confident of this start to May for weeks and weeks, despite talk of 'sceuro troughs' and washouts.

Edited by CreweCold
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Well the majority of this month is looking awful IMO if the MetO 16-30 dayer update is to be believed, lets hope we see an end to the cool/unsettled weather from the 1st June onwards.

Its not even sure to be happening yet and the UKMO model itself looks stunning this evening. GFS not bad either.

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Well the majority of this month is looking awful IMO if the MetO 16-30 dayer update is to be believed, lets hope we see an end to the cool/unsettled weather from the 1st June onwards.

 

Wouldn't worry about that too much a few weeks back they said the west and NW could be warmer / sunnier due to an easterly wind well that aint happened so far infact the NW of Scotland looks like been the wettest part of the UK for the next few days never mind the sunniest

Edited by Gavin.
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Well it certainly aint unsettled at the minute. All I see for the next couple of weeks is a mean +ve pressure anomaly somewhere across the mid latitudes in the vicinity of the UK. If any unsettled weather comes about it'll most likely be due to LP drifting up from the S or anchored to the W bringing the risk of thundery weather. I've been confident of this start to May for weeks and weeks, despite talk of 'sceuro troughs' and washouts.

Indeed the next 5 days or so are looking excellent, thereafter things turn unsettled with a W/NW influence temps will be suppressed for many. I still think the first half of Summer will be dry warm and sunny for many, the latter half much more unsettled but still above average temps.
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Indeed the next 5 days or so are looking excellent, thereafter things turn unsettled with a W/NW influence temps will be suppressed for many. I still think the first half of Summer will be dry warm and sunny for many, the latter half much more unsettled but still above average temps.

 

I'd go along with that. I think 2/3rds of this summer will be very useable. Certainly drier than average and perhaps warmer than average too. Late July into August looks like the most likely period to be plagued by wetter and cooler weather.

 

P.S, Just for fun....The CFS Dec and Jan anomalies are a lovely bit of eye candy.....couldn't draw better anomalies for cold weather

 

 

post-10987-0-20512500-1367512936_thumb.p

 

post-10987-0-53591900-1367512954_thumb.p

 

I wonder if we'll get a traditional summer followed by a bone shaker of a winter? The mildies shouldn't complain at that if they get their longed for summer!

 

As ludicrous as it seems, the CFS is constantly churning out those December charts and has been for weeks, run after run. I don't know whether it's an inbuilt bias within the model however or whether it's spotting a strong current signal for such an eventuality.

Edited by CreweCold
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While the above comment of only 2 summers since 2000 in Wales being above average [514hr 1981-2010] is correct these being 2005 and 2006 as correctly identified above. 

 

However 2000,2001,2003, 2009,2010,2011 each had over 500 hours of sunshine, all above 97% of the average, so realistically these were pretty much bang on normal in terms of sunshine hours. 2008 and 2012 were the ones notable for being way below the rest.

 

Even this though hides a quite common pattern, in general terms June has tended to be a very sunny month,

1999 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 were each above average (1981-2010) (although 1999 and 2005, only just above average)

 

That's a fair point.  I do think that having had 2 below average summers amongst the average summers we are due for a summer with above average sunshine here.  That doesn't mean we'll get it though!

 

I'm surprised at 2011 - it's probably selective memory, but I would always rate 2010 much more highly.  I suppose 2011 was fairly nondescript throughout, and while June 2010 was exceptionally good, perhaps July and August were quite a bit worse than 2011.  After last year I would be happy with a repeat of any of the years you mention although would probably prefer a 2010 style summer with one exceptional month rather than 3 average months.  

 

There definitely seems to have been a trend for spring and early summer to have been better in recent years as you suggest - even last year we had a decent spell in May despite the appalling June.  2007 was an exception with August being the best month of a bad bunch.  I have young children, so will be hoping to have some decent weather during the school holidays in July and August. 

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The sunshine statistics for Wales are interesting as we have only had 2 summers with above average sunshine since 1999: 2005 and 2006.  So, statistically at least, it would be well overdue to have some sunshine this summer.  A repeat of the last couple of days with slightly higher temperature values would be very welcome! Whatever we end up with this year, it must surely be better than last year in my location.  Having said that, who would have thought in April 2007 that we'd have a warmer April just 4 years later?

Even worse up here with only one summer having above average sunshine since 1999 which was 2003. 1999, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2009 had average sunshine while the rest were dull with 2007 and 2012 being the dullest post-war summers by some way.Last summers sunshine total came in below the 1st percentile and it was the worst summer ever recorded so summer 2013 couldn't possibly be any worse.Furthermore the combined sunshine deficit for the past 6 summers has been 560 hours which is ridiculous. Never has a decent summer been so long overdue. Even the 1960s summers were nowhere near as bad.
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Guest pjl20101

Well the majority of this month is looking awful IMO if the MetO 16-30 dayer update is to be believed, lets hope we see an end to the cool/unsettled weather from the 1st June onwards.

I think my friend that it will come down to the ao/nao updates. To be honest I don't buy into the UKMO 16-30 day updates, the 6-15 day forecasts are a lot better wheras at times the 16-30 day output are frequently subject to change. Gp when he was here hinted at a modification of the walker circulation this summer, whatever that means chionomaniac may be able to help me with that.
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I don't believe with what I see on the CFS on Meteociel, all months with above average heights over us and warmer than average too. Hope its onto something.

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I don't believe with what I see on the CFS on Meteociel, all months with above average heights over us and warmer than average too. Hope its onto something.

Could you post the link?

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Well we come upon the same charts every year giving out the same differing responses, so we're probably no closer to knowing what the outcome is this summer... however as pessimistic as it sounds, with the last few summers, I've learnt that you should expect the worst and salvage what positivity you can out of the situation. I therefore, until we get a decent string of average summers, expect a cool wet summer in general. Not very scientific, but as of yet, not being proved wrong, as the pattern of dry Springs and presumably cool, wet summers is set to continue.. as there is no real evidence as yet pointing to the contrary. (if something hasn't changed then why change an opinion on it?_

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