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Latest from Matt Hugo for summer on twitter

 

 

April update of the ECMWF seasonal model shows an unsettled Jun/Jul/Aug (lower than avg pressure) and summer temps slightly below avg.

 

Disclaimer: The ECMWF seasonal model *HAS* been wrong before and is just a model, so it could be wrong, but it's not good at the moment.

 

 

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

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I hope we see more days this Summer over 30c. They really have been few and far between since the scorching hot month of July 2006 where almost every day since mid month got to at least 30c. Last year was still poor but not as bad as 2007 or 2008. 2008 only really had one meaningful warm spell and even then we just managed to scrape over 30c but only just. Northern and western areas are long overdue a spell of very warm conditions in Summer.

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I hope we see more days this Summer over 30c. They really have been few and far between since the scorching hot month of July 2006 where almost every day since mid month got to at least 30c. Last year was still poor but not as bad as 2007 or 2008. 2008 only really had one meaningful warm spell and even then we just managed to scrape over 30c but only just. Northern and western areas are long overdue a spell of very warm conditions in Summer.

Its 10 years in our neck of the woods since 30C was last reached (30.9C on 6th August 2003), quite a long period really considering between 1989 and 2003 we hit it 9 times.

 

Summers 2007, 2008 and 2009 didnt reach above 26.0C and we havent been above 25.6C in August since 2006 now.

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June 27th 2011 came very close. I recall being in Lincoln and it being 32c but, as is often the case, the temperature falls as i near the coast.

Edited by Milhouse
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June 27th 2011 came very close. I recall being in Lincoln and it being 32c but, as is often the case, the temperature falls as i near the coast.

Indeed, 32C in Leconfield that day but we only hit 29.7C due to a slight onshore breeze.

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Yes are long overdue a hot spell and would be lovely to see again. So long as it was on the back of generally warm, dry & most importantly sunny summer - not just an isolated joyful spell in a sea of vileness...

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Yes are long overdue a hot spell and would be lovely to see again. So long as it was on the back of generally warm, dry & most importantly sunny summer - not just an isolated joyful spell in a sea of vileness...

To be fair though thats generally what our summers have always been! Posted Image

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Yes are long overdue a hot spell and would be lovely to see again. So long as it was on the back of generally warm, dry & most importantly sunny summer - not just an isolated joyful spell in a sea of vileness...

 

Yes I agree, the last few summers really have been feast or famine with one or two absolutely stunning spells of weather (I'm thinking late May last year which was one of the best spells of warm sunny weather I can remember) along with several weeks on end of truly awful rain and wind. Would like to see something more traditional this year.

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A traditional statistically average summer of cool spells interspersed with a few hot spells would suprise quite a few who think the average UK summer is cool and wet. the recent summers have been so cool and wet that an average summer such as 2005 would seem so much nicer than it would 10 years ago.

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A traditional statistically average summer of cool spells interspersed with a few hot spells would suprise quite a few who think the average UK summer is cool and wet. the recent summers have been so cool and wet that an average summer such as 2005 would seem so much nicer than it would 10 years ago.

 

2005 was not really average, it had a very hot first half and a depressing second half.

 

2009 was actually close to average when you take out the rainfall of July.

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2005 was not really average, it had a very hot first half and a depressing second half.

 

2009 was actually close to average when you take out the rainfall of July.

2005 was average on the whole though despite monthly variations. I do suppose that 2009 and 2010 get overlooked as quite good summers. Both Junes were very decent. But the continuous low pressure of July 2009 tends to overshaddow that Summer though.

 

edit: well actually i would say 2005 was a touch above average on the whole with a warm June, average July and a August just a little below.

Edited by Milhouse
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2005 was not really average, it had a very hot first half and a depressing second half.

 

2009 was actually close to average when you take out the rainfall of July.

2009 was a decent summer in the south east..hot spell last week June first week of July rest of summer was reasonably dry and not to bad at all temps wise mostly low to mid 20s..i was living in Ruislip at the time and was my last summer in the UK.

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Statistically 2005 had a warmer-than-average June (the second half was the warmest since 1976, after a fairly cool first half) but July and August both had a close to average mean temperature.

It probably varies depending on what area of the country you live in but I don't remember Summer 2005 having a depressing second half- there was a 10-15 day spell at the end of July which was persistently grey with low daytime temperatures, but August as a whole was drier and sunnier than average over most of England with temperatures slightly above average by day and slightly below by night. It was a dull month in northern Scotland though if I remember rightly.

Of course it was very different to the summers of 2007, 2008 and 2012 though. I wouldn't put 2009 or 2010 in the same bracket as 2007/2008/2012 though and Summer 2011 was statistically close to average (if a little on the cool side) during June and July, taking the country as a whole, before dull wet weather set in during August.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Yes Summer 2005 is one of my favourites, if every summer was like that one in the UK it would be brilliant.

There was some contrasts though in the August between northern parts of the UK and the south, living in Devon at the time August 2005 was persistently warm/ very warm dry and sunny ending with a cracking thunderstorm, the last time i can say we had a warm August, 2006 was pretty average since then they have all been cool and wet.

In fact it reached 25c more times in August 2005 than it did during the whole of last summer and 2011 combined.

In regards to this summer i think we are heading for another cool and unsettled one. The PDO is still trending negative, ENSO conditions from what i can tell are dipping into Weak La Nina territory, don't think the positive QBO will be enough to counter balance both of these factors should they persist, unless the PDO turns more neutral.

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QBO (Neutral)

 

2008

2004

2002

2000

1999

1997

1995

1990

1985

1981

1980

 

MEI (Neutral-negative)

 

2009

2006

1985

1975

 

PDO (Neutral-Negative)

 

1964

1963

1959

1952

 

GLAMM (Neutral-positive)

 

2004

2002

1991

1979

1970

1958

 

February-March

 

2004

2002

 

 

And what they project...

 

post-1806-0-73484300-1366323684_thumb.pn

 

post-1806-0-43604600-1366323691_thumb.pn

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Guest pjl20101

I think that cfs are a better seasonal forecasting model than ECM, they were last year and I do not see any sign of a let up. They picked up instantly on our wet summer last year. Then again the stratospheric profile will tease us with what sort of summer we will actually get.

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I'm sensing an increasing pessimism about the summer. In the model thread Snowking has suggested that the overwhelming signal for the summer is a "sceuro trough" (i assume with ridging to the south west?) - which wouldn't be great at all for warmth and would surely deliver a cool, unsettled summer. Having said that, in the south it might at least be a bit drier than last year in that set up instead of having a mean upper trough anchored over the UK.

 

Added to that, it doesn't look like we're going to dodge the bullet of the unsettled regime setting in from later next week and SP1986 (in the model thread) suggests that this pattern may well get "locked in" (where have we heard that before?) which would tie in with the "sceuro trough" dominated summer. It's funny how only cold or unsettled patterns have any chance of being "locked in" these days.

 

Also, i've been following the CFS a little more closely this year just for interest and in my opinion it is gradually settling on an average/slightly below May and is gradually backing away from the "two good summer months" scenario.

 

I now have a low expectation for this summer again having been a bit more positive a while ago. I suppose cool and dry i could tolerate - cool and wet again i couldn't.

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I'm sensing an increasing pessimism about the summer. In the model thread Snowking has suggested that the overwhelming signal for the summer is a "sceuro trough" (i assume with ridging to the south west?) - which wouldn't be great at all for warmth and would surely deliver a cool, unsettled summer. Having said that, in the south it might at least be a bit drier than last year in that set up instead of having a mean upper trough anchored over the UK.

 

Added to that, it doesn't look like we're going to dodge the bullet of the unsettled regime setting in from later next week and SP1986 (in the model thread) suggests that this pattern may well get "locked in" (where have we heard that before?) which would tie in with the "sceuro trough" dominated summer. It's funny how only cold or unsettled patterns have any chance of being "locked in" these days.

 

Also, i've been following the CFS a little more closely this year just for interest and in my opinion it is gradually settling on an average/slightly below May and is gradually backing away from the "two good summer months" scenario.

 

I now have a low expectation for this summer again having been a bit more positive a while ago. I suppose cool and dry i could tolerate - cool and wet again i couldn't.

Largely agree with those comments. I have thought for some time that we will see a predominance of Northern blocking again this summer and a resultant rather poor summer. I really hope I'm wrong but my head says that it will be rather wet and at best average in terms of temps

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I'm sensing an increasing pessimism about the summer. In the model thread Snowking has suggested that the overwhelming signal for the summer is a "sceuro trough" (i assume with ridging to the south west?) - which wouldn't be great at all for warmth and would surely deliver a cool, unsettled summer. Having said that, in the south it might at least be a bit drier than last year in that set up instead of having a mean upper trough anchored over the UK.

 

Added to that, it doesn't look like we're going to dodge the bullet of the unsettled regime setting in from later next week and SP1986 (in the model thread) suggests that this pattern may well get "locked in" (where have we heard that before?) which would tie in with the "sceuro trough" dominated summer. It's funny how only cold or unsettled patterns have any chance of being "locked in" these days.

 

Also, i've been following the CFS a little more closely this year just for interest and in my opinion it is gradually settling on an average/slightly below May and is gradually backing away from the "two good summer months" scenario.

 

I now have a low expectation for this summer again having been a bit more positive a while ago. I suppose cool and dry i could tolerate - cool and wet again i couldn't.

I agree RE Cool weather seems automatically locked in. Ive been following the CFS Closely and it seems keen on a cool first half of May but much better in the second half. There are some real pessimists on this forum. Just ignore them.

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QBO (Neutral)

 

2008

2004

2002

2000

1999

1997

1995

1990

1985

1981

1980

 

MEI (Neutral-negative)

 

2009

2006

1985

1975

 

PDO (Neutral-Negative)

 

1964

1963

1959

1952

 

GLAMM (Neutral-positive)

 

2004

2002

1991

1979

1970

1958

 

February-March

 

2004

2002

 

 

And what they project...

 

Posted Image4.png

 

Posted Image5.png

Looks like a coolish summer here with the set ups shown potentially very stormy across the Prairies

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Not convinced by the cool, wet summer theories despite them being our default of late.

More hope than evidence though- just hope if our good stuff is limited again then it makes itself felt late June!

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As in winter we are now getting to that time when everyone has different opinions of what may or may not be in store

 

Wet and or cool is the easy one to go for as we've been locked in to one or both since 2007

 

2003 and 2006 were the best in the past decade and we will see a repeat of this at some point its just a matter of when

 

After last years pathetic attempt at summer I'd take an average one this year at least it would be an improvement

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