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There have also been some slightly more positive tweets though, to quote part of a recent post in the MOD thread:

 

Latest from Matt Hugo on twitter

 

Phase 4, 5, 6 and 7 don't bode (unsettled) well if the ECMWF model is to be believed with regards to the MJO

 

Posted Image

 

@FrenchScotPilot But... likely to move into phase 8 (strengthening?) after week 2 and that statistically shows high over W Europe (fingers Xed)

 

Agreed. Long way off but if it does behave in that way then early July *could* see marked improvement in conditions.

 

And Ian Fergusson (Fergie weather on here) has just tweeted this

 

UKMO favours slightly higher prob of drier/warmer later June based on MOGREPS, NCEP & JMA consensus. We'll see!

 

Given the last tweet I wonder if the MetO 15-30 day outlook will change tune a bit today? (as that is after week 2) it has been consistent for a changeable/unsettled regime recently (although that is not all bad).

Edited by Stormmad26
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Well the 'run up' to Wimbledon is when we normally see the 'European Monsoon' appearing so I'll be pleasantly surprised if this too stays on the continent and the lows forecast track north?

 

Get us through this 'monsoon' period without week long cool deluges and I'm a happy bunny as I still see lots of H.P. on the charts and sooner , or later, this will bring us another settled spell? might not be Med temps but 19c and sunny is pretty good whilst you are in the Sun???

 

I must also agree with Mushy about cloudy nights 'skewing' temps by impacting lower daylight temps with elevated overnight temps? I think a lot of the temp records , esp. over winter, have been aided by this type of setup?

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IIRC, don't you have access to the EC 32 day control run Snowking?

Yep I certainly do, although I have found it is only useful when we see it appear close to the overall ensemble mean.

 

Its not too far away from the mean today, though a pretty notable anomaly towards the middle of the run:

 

Posted Image

 

The overall idea from the ECM control for the mentioned period is a mid-atlantic ridge development influencing the UK for a time too

 

SK

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Apologies for losing my rag last night. Beer (and very nice too) was the enemy to good sense in that post. We'd been 'out' out for 5 hours. Sorry to Tony and others.

 

In fact Tony and others are right about needing to stay realistic (which sadly often means pessimism is genuinely necessary).

 

Except for the FI part of one 06z run this morning, which is most likely an outlier and may very well not verify anyway, things aren't looking too great for the next two weeks. BUT at least a total washout in the S isn't as likely as turned out to be nailed on for that period in 2012.

Edited by William of Walworth
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I am able to dispute your comment mushy as I have the daily data for RAF Finningley available.In terms of average max both months show values of 2C or more above the 50 year average for the station.The average min in July was below that 50 year mean whilst in August it was above, giving means of 17.9 and 17.6 respectively compared to the average of 16.2 and 16.0.As I often say I do prefer actual data to our memories. Finningley is only 30-40 miles from Derby so it would seem that your figures would be fairly similar?depends upon how you judge 'summer' john. using mean temps doesnt necessarily equate to a good summer. july, aug 91 were not particually sunny or hot (like july 06, aug 95). high overnight minima (due to cloud) skews the data. where was the hot spell in 91? and by that i mean a countrywide spell of three days or more with temps 25c+ ? i think many would sooner have a run of daytime maxs of 25c+ and cooler minima then a run of daytime maxs c 22c and higher overnight minima. id suggest the latter is what we got in 91.Finally to add another statistic - sunshineboth months showed values some 30 to 40 hours above the 44 year average for sunshine.oh and finally days above 25C=both months showed 9 with a run of 4 days in July.

 

thats strange john.... 91 was largely cloudy... here anyway. my youngest was being born, aug 7th, was overcast (but bright). i dont make records but i have always made comment on extremes... a run of heat gets a mention, heavy rain, thunderstorms, snow, etc...  however i didnt say summer of 91 was poor, just benign.

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ok apology accepted, i apologise too for going into rant mode, we all know in our minds that we should except the UK climate for what it is but actually doing it is the hardest part, so we get frustrated when we see crap weather

 

is anybody on here from lerwick now they have a real reason to moan, i bet if they see a day of 20c it will be like a major heatwave to them

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is anybody on here from lerwick now they have a real reason to moan, i bet if they see a day of 20c it will be like a major heatwave to them

 

I wish I lived in Lerwick...

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The weather experts are now predicted an miserable Summer is on the cards. No surprises there. I'm actually expected it too.

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ok apology accepted, i apologise too for going into rant mode, we all know in our minds that we should except the UK climate for what it is but actually doing it is the hardest part, so we get frustrated when we see crap weather is anybody on here from lerwick now they have a real reason to moan, i bet if they see a day of 20c it will be like a major heatwave to them

I worked there for a year 1984-85, possibly 3 times at Sullom Voe but my memory may be wrong, not sure how many if any at Lerwick Observatory in that time.
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The weather experts are now predicted an miserable Summer is on the cards. No surprises there. I'm actually expected it too.

 

Experts you say but which experts?

 

Those quotes from the met office are twisted 9 times out of 10

 

Other than that its mostly Jonathan Powell

 

The only washout summer forecast's that keep appearing are in the papers and there track record is hopeless

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what weather experts?  take  Paul  Hudson,  on Monday when he cameback from yet another holiday.. Predicted today, ie Friday to be  a nice day,in my location.. Guess what? its not.

No one knows what the pressure charts will be like in  a  5/10 day period never mind rest of the summer.

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what weather experts?  take  Paul  Hudson,  on Monday when he cameback from yet another holiday.. Predicted today, ie Friday to be  a nice day,in my location.. Guess what? its not.No one knows what the pressure charts will be like in  a  5/10 day period never mind rest of the summer.

I have no idea where you live so cannot possibly commentwould you like to put your town in your avatar please?many thanks
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what weather experts?  take  Paul  Hudson,  on Monday when he cameback from yet another holiday.. Predicted today, ie Friday to be  a nice day,in my location.. Guess what? its not.

No one knows what the pressure charts will be like in  a  5/10 day period never mind rest of the summer.

rain was predicted for my area all week for tonight, now it looks like it will be dribs and drabs, this is about the 5th short term cock up for my area in the last two weeks at only 24 hours notice, if you are not a garderner you will be oblivious to this, as i guess they won't care if we get a typical bog standard band of rain or not, or worry about unforecasted low min temps which i had last week, and people wonder why im cautious and pessimistic

Edited by Tony27
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ok apology accepted, i apologise too for going into rant mode, we all know in our minds that we should except the UK climate for what it is but actually doing it is the hardest part, so we get frustrated when we see crap weather

 

is anybody on here from lerwick now they have a real reason to moan, i bet if they see a day of 20c it will be like a major heatwave to them

 

20c these days feels like a heatwave even here! Think we've only gone over that 4-5 times this year. We don't live in good times weatherwise sadly. The glory of 2006 seems so long ago.

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then move there!!! :-)

 

That easy,huh? Why don't all you lot who are moaning about the last six or so 'poor' summers move to the Med? You might have to get used to them in these post-'global warming' hysteria days!

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I'm starting a whip-round with a view to sending laserguy off to South Georgia for the next three months. As an inducement to potential contributors it should be known that Internet connectivity on the island is very intermittent.

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That easy,huh? Why don't all you lot who are moaning about the last six or so 'poor' summers move to the Med? You might have to get used to them in these post-'global warming' hysteria days!

because i like british weather, but we have been missing out on hot spells recently, im not wanting med weather, just a couple of hot spells per summer and that is not unreasonable for the uk, in fact its pretty normal.....or was until 07.
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tbh thats pretty lame. it says nothing and isnt strictly true . the point is that we have entered a changable phase, how long will it last is anones guess. but whilst we are in it theres no summer as in sun, dry and warmth. it might turn out nice again, it might stay cool and wet.
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tbh thats pretty lame. it says nothing and isnt strictly true . the point is that we have entered a changable phase, how long will it last is anones guess. but whilst we are in it theres no summer as in sun, dry and warmth. it might turn out nice again, it might stay cool and wet.

 

How is that lame and not strictly true.. I can't see anything they say that isn't true at this stage? Only the last small paragraph depending on where you live could I understand some not really agreeing with.

 

Lol surely what you're saying is backing up their point i.e we don't really know what will happen after June, and hence summer's not over yet as in we can't write it off yet?

 

Also some models like GFS, ECM show a couple warm days for the south next week, sun dry and warmth for those days.

Edited by Stormmad26
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Your inverted commas around the words global waming suggest .... an agenda, or at least a certain way of thinking.

 

Reminding me why I stay out of that particular thread on here. Confine the science and anti science** to that thread please, I'd suggest

 

**(definition of either re climate change/global warming depends on whichever direction suits your thinking ... as well as depending on real science ;)  ) .

How is that lame and not strictly true.. I can't see anything they say that isn't true at this stage? Only the last small paragraph depending on where you live could I understand some not really agreeing with.

 

Lol surely what you're saying is backing up their point i.e we don't really know what will happen after June, and hence summer's not over yet as in we can't write it off yet?

 

Also some models like GFS, ECM show a couple warm days for the south next week, sun dry and warmth for those days.

 

 

Completely agree, 'writing off' is as much of a mugs game as ramping up a whole summer of 2006-itude.

 

Bit in bold : YES, and we don't even know what's going to happen even later this coming week and beyond, let alone July and August ... just because several recent summers have been 'challenging' for sun and warmth lovers, is zero to do with whether or not 2013's summer will be or will not be rubbish as well.

 

Foreasting from past years = not proper forecasting.

Edited by William of Walworth
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