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Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    Well no we are unlikely to get a 76, 83, 95, 06 summer etc, but I never expected that this year. Admittedly the models at the moment are rather disappointing but there is still plenty of time for some decent summer weather to pop up at times, even a hot spell or 2 who knows.

     

    So no unfortunately I can not agree with it being time to 'write off summer' considering the above is perfectly possible, and it would not be a safe bet at all. Even last year I was sat out one late July evening having a BBQ at about 27C at 6-7pm (my hottest summer temp since 2006). There were some decent days in August too (and September) and hence the summer was not a complete write off, which would be very rare.

     

    Maybe it's just an interpretation thing but to me 'write off summer' means no hope of warm summary days to come this summer.. anyway June is already not a write off in many western/some central parts

     

    You could choose to 'write off summer' every time a 06/03/95 etc doesn't look like occurring, but I'd rather not hold that depressing view 9 years out of 10.. anyway I'd probably get bored of a Mediterranean style summer and want some variability.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    its not going to happen is it.... a nice hot dry sunny summer.. ok, it might not be as bad as 12, 07, 08... but theres no real sign of anything much better, save a day or two here and there. theres no sign of a first widespread 25c for one day, let alone several consecutive.  so forget thoughts of 06, 03, 95, 90, 83, 76, 75... anything 'good' is always in fi, just like the previous 6 summers (ok the southeast wasnt too bad the other year). time to 'write off summer'?.. you know, it would be a pretty safe bet.

    that final sentence is a fairly silly comment mushyHow on earth can anyone predict widespread 25C values 6-10 weeks down the line?I think folk should remember that the weather can and does make fools of all of us that try to predict what it will do in short and long term forecasting.Who predicted the 2006 summer?Who, at beyond 1 month out predicted December 2010?Or March this year?The list is quite long of this type of supposed once in x year events that do crop up now and then. Edited by johnholmes
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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    Im personally amazed people can be so downbeat when we've just come out of a 10 day warm, dry and sunny spell (for the majority). I say for the majority as they could have been here near the east coast where the mean maximum temperature was only 15.2C for the first 10 days and more than half of the days were completely overcast!

     

    We may indeed get a below average, wet summer by the end, but the likelihood of not reaching 25C nor having anymore warm, settled spells (or even heat, if short-lived) is nil. We could even have a crap June and then very warm, dry and sunny July and August, its been known to happen before.

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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

    The makings of a good spell of weather are much more evident than this time last year. We just need everything to fall into place.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

    its not going to happen is it.... a nice hot dry sunny summer..

     

     

     

    God I hope not.... bad enough now,never mind all this talk of 25C+. Y'know it's all over when they start flogging off cheap all those dreadful barbecues. Watching and waiting....

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    wrong place sorry

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    The problem is that the fine settled spell of the opening 10 days of June is not representative of the prevaling pattern before this time, and the one that has re-set this week. We need to base our starting throughts there, rather than pick the fine 10 day spell to set our perspective and expectations.

     

    How the current pattern evolves, if it does, in the days to come will start to give an insight into whether the fine spell of the first third of June was another one-off amongst a continuing pattern of a jet stream not being able to get properly north of the UK, or whether it is the start of a process of change for the summer as a whole.

     

    At this time, there is no evidence that the latter is happening. At least yet. The atlantic High and UK trough remains at least for the foreseable future and whilst there will be some regions which fare relatively better under such a regime, overall for the UK as a whole it does not constitute much settled weather beyond transistory ridges.

    Edited by Tamara Road
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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    I'm not sure we are in a 'run' of bad Summers or even if this the default and good Summers are not the norm? Perhaps someone will look back at this period in 100 to 1000 years time and form a positive conclusion, I won't be here to read it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    To me, we are seeing a continuation of the large scale pattern that brought a good spell of weather to many parts.

    We continue to see a strong Azores high with strong heights across Scandinavia, and it is still a feature of the 8-10 day mean height anomaly charts. 

     

    Posted Image

     

    While these are still present, we will continue to have a potential link up between the two which provides an easterly flow to our weather. All the while, those cool SST anomalies are being reduced which should help with any easterly spells

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

     

    The problem is that the fine settled spell of the opening 10 days of June is not representative of the prevaling pattern before this time, and the one that has re-set this week. We need to base our starting throughts there, rather than pick the fine 10 day spell to set our perspective and expectations.

    I'm a realist and the fine settled spell of the opening 10 days of June DID actually occur.I'm not setting my expectations from there, but if the rest of June turns out to be a mixed bag then in my book, it means this June will be a big improvement on last couple of years.Patterns can, and do, change - i will remain optimistic for the rest of Summer
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    Posted
  • Location: Devínska Nová Ves, Bratislava (160m)
  • Location: Devínska Nová Ves, Bratislava (160m)

    I'm not sure we are in a 'run' of bad Summers or even if this the default and good Summers are not the norm? Perhaps someone will look back at this period in 100 to 1000 years time and form a positive conclusion, I won't be here to read it!

    No, we really are in a run of bad summers and no-one is going to convince me otherwise! If this summer doesn't end up being a write-off it'll be something of a relief.

     

    And if someone looks back at this period of summers in the future and paints it in a positive light, they'll either be one of laserguy's descendants or living in Greenland.

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    Posted
  • Location: Devínska Nová Ves, Bratislava (160m)
  • Location: Devínska Nová Ves, Bratislava (160m)

    By the way, there goes another year without 30C being reached on 13th June.

     

    It's the only date in the three summer months when 30C hasn't been officially recorded anywhere in the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    To me, we are seeing a continuation of the large scale pattern that brought a good spell of weather to many parts.

    We continue to see a strong Azores high with strong heights across Scandinavia, and it is still a feature of the 8-10 day mean height anomaly charts. 

     

    Posted Image

     

    While these are still present, we will continue to have a potential link up between the two which provides an easterly flow to our weather. All the while, those cool SST anomalies are being reduced which should help with any easterly spells

     

    Posted Image

    whilst I liked your previous post and felt it to be a good summation of what was and is showing I'm not too taken with this one suggesting the ECMWF-GFS pattern for 10 days time is giving good guidance.

    Like I posted in the model thread, they are still at variance with NOAA. Equally with an upper trough predicted close/over the UK there is little chance in the 10 day period of much in the way of settled weather. What effect this type of chart has on the rest of summer I confess to having no idea.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    whilst I liked your previous post and felt it to be a good summation of what was and is showing I'm not too taken with this one suggesting the ECMWF-GFS pattern for 10 days time is giving good guidance.

    Like I posted in the model thread, they are still at variance with NOAA. Equally with an upper trough predicted close/over the UK there is little chance in the 10 day period of much in the way of settled weather. What effect this type of chart has on the rest of summer I confess to having no idea.

     

    I wasn't trying to say that the forecast pattern will provide us with good weather in the near term, so in that regard I agree with you, but that there has been little change to the conditions that did provided many with their first summery spell.

     

    To me the 8-10 day forecast I mentioned, as well as the NOAA version, both show upper ridges both over Scandinavia and out to the west.This is a pattern that began to establish itself in the final third of May and appears to have remained relatively stable. It was back on May 10th in the MOD thread, that I called the current pattern and for a more settled spell in the last week of May due to linking across the British Isles. The strong heights over Scandinavia is something picked up on in the analogues in an earlier post I made in this thread http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76293-summer-2013/?p=2691095

     

    So I think that while we continue to see good heights across Scandi, and also to our west, we have the potential for them to link up and provide us with some decent weather, as they did in late May and early June. This is something that was lacking in recent summers and so, to me, is reason for optimism this year.

     

    Still, nobody can predict what the weather would do one week out, let alone 3 months, so we'll just have to sit back and watch.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    To me, we are seeing a continuation of the large scale pattern that brought a good spell of weather to many parts.

    We continue to see a strong Azores high with strong heights across Scandinavia, and it is still a feature of the 8-10 day mean height anomaly charts. 

     

    Posted Image

     

    While these are still present, we will continue to have a potential link up between the two which provides an easterly flow to our weather. All the while, those cool SST anomalies are being reduced which should help with any easterly spells

     

    Posted Image

     

    Intriguing NA SST profile there. May featured a weak tripole signature. This month it looks like a banding of cold, warm, cold, warm.

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    Posted
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    I'm not too taken with this one suggesting the ECMWF-GFS pattern for 10 days time is giving good guidance.Like I posted in the model thread, they are still at variance with NOAA. Equally with an upper trough predicted close/over the UK there is little chance in the 10 day period of much in the way of settled weather. What effect this type of chart has on the rest of summer I confess to having no idea.

    This is very close to the same point I was making.  And also wrt the first post, providing a composite of pressure anomalies that reflects the fine spell, simply only proves that. That it was a fine spell of weather. Taken in isolation it has no bearing on the weather patterns as a whole which clearly are revolving background factors that have reverted the UK to a trough pattern once more. And there is no reliable sign of a change to that at least within the next 10 days

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    Posted
  • Location: Devínska Nová Ves, Bratislava (160m)
  • Location: Devínska Nová Ves, Bratislava (160m)

    What irritates me is how the overall pattern of it being unsettled keeps coinciding with the summer period, no matter what the pattern was like leading up to it. In 2010 and 2011 the spring pattern was generally a settled one with occasional unsettled interludes, before switching to unsettled in the summer. 2012 had a dry period in early spring but this time we reverted to unsettled in April: I was hopeful that this would mean that at least the next pattern change to settled would occur in the summer, but of course it just got even worse. I remember OldMetMan on the model thread commenting that in all his years he couldn't remember seeing a general background pattern lasting for so long without changing (or something like that) - it's almost as if the northerly blocking/southerly jet pattern had to last that long purely to make sure summer would go down the pan. Summer 2011 wasn't as bad as 2012, but even there we had a year dominated by warm synoptics only to find summer reverting to a cool, unsettled pattern - the second warmest year for the CET since 1659 and yet all three summers months were cooler than the 350-year average.

     

    Basically, our summer weather patterns in recent years have been defined by Sod's Law.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    What irritates me is how the overall pattern of it being unsettled keeps coinciding with the summer period, no matter what the pattern was like leading up to it. In 2010 and 2011 the spring pattern was generally a settled one with occasional unsettled interludes, before switching to unsettled in the summer. 2012 had a dry period in early spring but this time we reverted to unsettled in April: I was hopeful that this would mean that at least the next pattern change to settled would occur in the summer, but of course it just got even worse. I remember OldMetMan on the model thread commenting that in all his years he couldn't remember seeing a general background pattern lasting for so long without changing (or something like that) - it's almost as if the northerly blocking/southerly jet pattern had to last that long purely to make sure summer would go down the pan. Summer 2011 wasn't as bad as 2012, but even there we had a year dominated by warm synoptics only to find summer reverting to a cool, unsettled pattern - the second warmest year for the CET since 1659 and yet all three summers months were cooler than the 350-year average.

     

    Basically, our summer weather patterns in recent years have been defined by Sod's Law.

     

    Weather patterns seem to have changed over the past few years, certainly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Devínska Nová Ves, Bratislava (160m)
  • Location: Devínska Nová Ves, Bratislava (160m)

    Also, I should clarify I'm not doom-mongering or anything. I can understand though why there's been a bit of knee-jerk reaction to it turning unsettled again after the recent settled spell: pretty much anything that could go wrong in recent summers has done, so there's bound to be a degree of apprehension in the air at the moment amongst warm-lovers. If this was 2007, I doubt anyone would be worrying about the rest of summer but given what summers have actually been like since then the feeling is different.

     

    Post #761 does give us reason not to panic just yet though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    What irritates me is how the overall pattern of it being unsettled keeps coinciding with the summer period, no matter what the pattern was like leading up to it. In 2010 and 2011 the spring pattern was generally a settled one with occasional unsettled interludes, before switching to unsettled in the summer. 2012 had a dry period in early spring but this time we reverted to unsettled in April: I was hopeful that this would mean that at least the next pattern change to settled would occur in the summer, but of course it just got even worse. I remember OldMetMan on the model thread commenting that in all his years he couldn't remember seeing a general background pattern lasting for so long without changing (or something like that) - it's almost as if the northerly blocking/southerly jet pattern had to last that long purely to make sure summer would go down the pan. Summer 2011 wasn't as bad as 2012, but even there we had a year dominated by warm synoptics only to find summer reverting to a cool, unsettled pattern - the second warmest year for the CET since 1659 and yet all three summers months were cooler than the 350-year average.

     

    Basically, our summer weather patterns in recent years have been defined by Sod's Law.

    Anyone know where OldMetMan is?

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    Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

    Weather patterns have indeed changed - and much for the worse! 

    This past 12 months especially has hit wildlife, gardeners, retail, tourist attractions and farming hard - right when we don't need it!

     

    Although I do like snow in winter I'd much rather we could revert to the mild winter/hot summer pattern than this constant cool/cold. Its miserable and only gas companies & slugs benefit! *runs and hides from the winter fans*

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    If we look at the upper level pattern for each June from 2007-12, we see a recurring theme of strong heights across the Arctic (-ve AO) and Greenland. You can see this in the animation below.

     

    Posted ImageJAnimation.gif

     

    But this June, up to the 10th at least, we're seeing lower heights across the Arctic (+ve AO) and Greenland, a complete shift from the pattern of recent years.

     

    Posted ImageJ13.gif

     

    This obviously doesn't guarantee a good summer, but should certainly provide some encouragement and reason not to write off the next 12 weeks. The UK came close to a long summery/late spring spell just recently, but it seems Ireland managed to nick it!

     

    I know if you haven't had much in the way of good weather in recent weeks, it can be easy to slip into the mindset that we're just going to follow the pattern of recent summers. But looking at the data, it doesn't appear to be the case so far.

     

    There's reason to hope for something better at leastPosted Image

     

    ... yeah i know its not the same regime that gave us 12, 07,08 , but its not the same as the conditions that lead to 75, 76, 83, 95, 03, 06...

     

    i expected flack for my miserable post, 'you cant write off summer yet'... blah de blah, yeah well just watch me! :p

     

    i have very little technical knowlege, but those that do dont get it right all the time, i follow patterns, as ive worked outdoors for 40 years now... (I need to control my language) , as i see it, we have just changed a dry, fresh, sunny (for most) phase for a much more changeable, wetter, westerly one. how long will this last?... well previous recent summers have been ruined by it, its 7 summers now since we had a countrywide hot spell, the number of 25c's + ive had here since is beaten by july 06 alone.

     

    i expect a nothingness of a summer, not as wet as 12, nowhere near as nice as 06 or 03. so in terms of us getting a decent , lengthy, widespread hot spell ... yes i am not expecting that to happen, so in those terms i am writing off summer. hope im wrong.

     

    Weather patterns have indeed changed - and much for the worse! 

    This past 12 months especially has hit wildlife, gardeners, retail, tourist attractions and farming hard - right when we don't need it!

     

    Although I do like snow in winter I'd much rather we could revert to the mild winter/hot summer pattern than this constant cool/cold. Its miserable and only gas companies & slugs benefit! *runs and hides from the winter fans*

     

    ha..im in agreement with you here :)

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    that final sentence is a fairly silly comment mushyHow on earth can anyone predict widespread 25C values 6-10 weeks down the line?I think folk should remember that the weather can and does make fools of all of us that try to predict what it will do in short and long term forecasting.Who predicted the 2006 summer?Who, at beyond 1 month out predicted December 2010?Or March this year?The list is quite long of this type of supposed once in x year events that do crop up now and then.

     

    hello  john sensible :)

     

    like i said above, its down to patterns, hints that what we are likely to get. i can only think of 83 where there was a marked change from cool and wet to hot and dry, and 75 for dry/cold - hot sunny. i know its possible, just unlikely imho. the summer of 06 had the hints beforehand, with two nice spells before the july heatwave.

     

    its like cold winters, i find that most cold winters have cold spells prior to crimbo, hot summers often (but not always) have hot spells before the solstice as precursors to whats to come.

     

    of course this notion has no scientific basis, or none i can identify with, just 40 years of outdoor observation that isnt accurate, but hasnt served me badly tbh.

     

    i think we could get a summer like 79, only wetter.

     

    not everything can be down to science/data, sometimes hunches based on past experiences do have some merrit.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

     

    like i said above, its down to patterns, hints that what we are likely to get. i can only think of 83 where there was a marked change from cool and wet to hot and dry, and 75 for dry/cold - hot sunny. i know its possible, just unlikely imho. the summer of 06 had the hints beforehand, with two nice spells before the july heatwave.

     

     

    It was a pretty cool spring in 06 though with few warm spells before May, and May itself was mostly cool after that sudden warm up in the first week. I also seem to recall a rather brief cool spell in that July after a hot start to the month and I'm pretty sure the doom-mongers were on here during that spell, believing it was set to continue.

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