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At some point we are going to get a prolonged hot and dry summer. It happened in 2003 and 2006 and we had record breaking heat. The US Midwest where my brother lives had record heat and drought last summer whilst we got soaked.

Noone can say 2013 is going to be a hot one at this range but I will say this. The next 76/95/03 style summer we get will break temperature records. That I am certain of.

The problem is knowing which of the coming summers it will occur!

My hunch is we have another 2010 style summer. It gets split between a hot and dry half during June and early July but the weather breaks and we get a wet and soggy end.

I hope the kids have a decent summer holiday weather though, as let's hope the above doesn't happen!

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
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At some point we are going to get a prolonged hot and dry summer. It happened in 2003 and 2006 and we had record breaking heat. The US Midwest where my brother lives had record heat and drought last summer whilst we got soaked.

Noone can say 2013 is going to be a hot one at this range but I will say this. The next 76/95/03 style summer we get will break temperature records. That I am certain of.

The problem is knowing which of the coming summers it will occur!

My hunch is we have another 2010 style summer. It gets split between a hot and dry half during June and early July but the weather breaks and we get a wet and soggy end.

I hope the kids have a decent summer holiday weather though, as let's hope the above doesn't happen!

My analysis showed that whilst we are overdue at least 1 16C+ June we are certainly not overdue an 18C+ July or August (typically 1 or 2 per decade), rather it could be argued that a horrific sub 15C summer month is overdue.

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My hope is that there is a fine hot spell around my birthday (23rd July). It's been pretty good in that respect in most recent years, notably last year and 2008 when the nicest spells of the summers were around that time. Surely we can't have yet another summer as bad as last year (granted, August was much better but still not sunny enough). I'm hoping for a 2005 style summer, and at worst 2004 - both were warm and thundery.

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Went to the met office GloSea4 model and the update isn't great at all, with a hp to the east scenario, slightly cooler and wetter than average scenario too. The question is will it get other models supporting it? Only time will tell?

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Went to the met office GloSea4 model and the update isn't great at all, with a hp to the east scenario, slightly cooler and wetter than average scenario too. The question is will it get other models supporting it? Only time will tell?

Do you mean HP to the west. HP to the east would generally deliver warm weather. Edited by Blizzards
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Its the colour shadings that concerned me as it was green shadings on both temperature and precipitation. They updated it yesterday.

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The past year seems to have been one of locked patterns first it was months of wet weather from April till October with just 2 noticeable settled periods 1 at the end of May and 1 when the Olympics were on.

Then we went into an early cold period with snow in October

This year we've had winds from an easterly direction of some sort for around 8 weeks with just the odd milder spell

Now we appear to be entering a settled spell according to ECM and GFS with high pressure setting up residence across Europe and drifting to the UK setting up a north west south east split once the low passes through this weekend

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Lets hope it locks in till August eh. If a wet, cool period like that from April to Oct can last then surely this one can too.

So long as we don't get all our nice weather in April though!

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One issue with NW-SE splits is the "southeast takes all" version where warm dry sunny weather ends up confined to south-east England, and maybe East Anglia at a push, with the rest of the country cloudy and with plenty of rain over and to the west of high ground. Tonight's model runs are suggesting that we may be locked into that pattern for a short while though the longer-term signals suggest high pressure extending further north with time.

One N-S split summer month that often springs to my mind is August 1998- in Tyneside the daily weather ranged from cloudy to partly cloudy, breezy and mainly dry with the odd belt of light rain, but in the meantime London had a large number of warm dry sunny days and sunshine for the month was 40% above normal. The "non-weather" that tends to arise on the northern flank of the ridging Azores High is primarily what puts me off that particular setup.

We had a couple of more recent examples of NW-SE split months in August 2009 and July 2010 but they were unusually warm NW-SE split months thanks to a southerly bias to the mean westerly airflow. I recall that in August 2009 the dry sunny weather often extended further up the eastern half of Britain than it did in July 2010, but July 2010 was the hotter of the two months in East Anglia and the SE.

On the other side of the coin we also get NW-SE split months like October 1995, when most of the UK was sunny and dry, except for the north and west of Scotland, where the month was very wet but still managed close to average sunshine in most places.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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I'm quite convinced now we'll see a drier than average summer. June and August the warmest, driest months with an indifferent July wedged inbetween.

I can't see any evidence that we'll experience the wet months of previous years.

how about you explain your reasoning for this please?
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how about you explain your reasoning for this please?

It's an amalgamation of long range forecasting tools, local SSTs, ENSO state and the entering of a +QBO phase.

This being said, history has shown us that summer predictions on the back of such factors is fraught with more inaccuracies than long range winter predictions. Therefore, personally I see no reason to doubt what I've seen from the NWP over the past 6 weeks and nothing I've seen screams another 2007 like it did last year.

I've stopped doing detailed LRF work (as I did a couple of winters back) as I don't have the time or patience to construct them but I've outlined how I think summer will pan out. Warmer and drier than average is where my money is at (over wetter and cooler).

Sorry for the late reply, I don't frequent this thread much!

Edited by CreweCold
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thanks for that

No worries John.

Like I said, I could dig out composites, analogue years, etc etc, like I have done in the past. However, I've not witnessed any of this method work to any degree of accuracy over the past few years (during the summer seasons). No-one is more clued up than GP on these methods but his summer forecast 'shades of '76' was well out in terms of timing etc a couple of years back.

Last year I tried the NWP method.....I noted the strong suggestion of the CFS of a wet summer and it happened.

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This is just my early thoughts on the Summer ahead I will release a full forecast towards the end of May as more data becomes available.

First of all I'll start with the climate simulator that I used for my winter forecast, I used it as a experiment and it done really well and predicted below average temperatures for the entire winter.

Here's a simulation it ran today,

The pink line is the forecast average temperature and the green one is the average temperature, at the moment it looks pretty close to average with maybe the first half of July being slightly warmer than usual then below average temps by the end of September. I will be running this again during May with more accurate data for my official forecast.

Now onto the CFS seasonal charts for temperatures the averages at the moment point to temps being normal as well and maybe slightly colder at the start for Eastern parts. As for rainfall totals is where there seems to be a large question mark. June and July may be below average but August and September above average.

This is just a very short view from me but in May I'll release my forecast for the summer.

Edited by weathermaster
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In my opinion perhaps this summer will follow the last few, I don't really know, but I would suggest maybe a 2004 setup is the best we can hope for.. but a 2004 setup would be, in my opinion, a great setup. Not that I'm saying it will be like 2004, but I feel our summers are locked in a phase of generally wet and cool and I foresee this trend carrying on for a bit longer.

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This is just my early thoughts on the Summer ahead I will release a full forecast towards the end of May as more data becomes available.

First of all I'll start with the climate simulator that I used for my winter forecast, I used it as a experiment and it done really well and predicted below average temperatures for the entire winter.

Here's a simulation it ran today,

The pink line is the forecast average temperature and the green one is the average temperature, at the moment it looks pretty close to average with maybe the first half of July being slightly warmer than usual then below average temps by the end of September. I will be running this again during May with more accurate data for my official forecast.

Now onto the CFS seasonal charts for temperatures the averages at the moment point to temps being normal as well and maybe slightly colder at the start for Eastern parts. As for rainfall totals is where there seems to be a large question mark. June and July may be below average but August and September above average.

This is just a very short view from me but in May I'll release my forecast for the summer.

The thing that maybe could override the summer prediction is if we have a real upsurge in solar activity and I believe if we can have that it could mean the summer is warmer than what they suggest.

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I'm really not sure about this summer to be honest. I think blocking will be heavily involved again, but of course where it set-up has huge implications for us, and hence we could see either extreme this year. If it sets up in the right place we might be dry and very warm throughout, if it does what it did last year then it could be another horrid summer.

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Aparently I read a post made by Stormchaser on TWO and he is suggesting this for the summer, this by the way is an extract:

June and July are similar, with extensive mid-latitude +ve anomalies giving the UK a lot of fine, warm or hot weather, while August sees the pattern shift northward to leave the UK less settled and potentially rather cool at times.

CFS has been suggesting that June and July will be better than August this summer, and now I can see at least some of the reason why.

Edited by pjl20101
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Aparently I read a post made by Stormchaser on TWO and he is suggesting this for the summer, this by the way is an extract:

June and July are similar, with extensive mid-latitude +ve anomalies giving the UK a lot of fine, warm or hot weather, while August sees the pattern shift northward to leave the UK less settled and potentially rather cool at times.

CFS has been suggesting that June and July will be better than August this summer, and now I can see at least some of the reason why.

There is a definite suggestion of 2 fine months and one less so. Either July or August will be the wettest month of the 3.

Still, as I said, a much better summer for those wanting heat.

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High Pressure over Greenland seems to have disappeared again with low pressure tracking much further north than it has done for months. Even the GFS now has high pressure close by to the south throughout its run. I would be reasonably happy to see that for periods in Summer with changeable mobile westerlies. It would certainly beat the low pressure over the UK theme that dominated June and July last year.

 

Im not seeing anything yet that points to such an awful May/June as last year.

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High Pressure over Greenland seems to have disappeared again with low pressure tracking much further north than it has done for months. Even the GFS now has high pressure close by to the south throughout its run. I would be reasonably happy to see that for periods in Summer with changeable mobile westerlies. It would certainly beat the low pressure over the UK theme that dominated June and July last year.

 

Im not seeing anything yet that points to such an awful May/June as last year.

 

Yep as you say a totally different pattern emerging over Greenland now for the first time in ages low pressure it taking up residence allowing the high to build up from the south

 

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

Edited by Gavin.
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Was wondering with what an active MJO sort of summer would imply? As that along with solar activity, atmospheric angular momentum, PDO and QBO I believe will be our major players this summer.

A thing I did catch up with the strats thread is the stratospheric temperature is starting to ascend for what teleconnections that implies for the summer is anybodys guess. This summer will be such a hard season to pin down it really will.

Stormchaser on TWO seemed to suggest that the other day on Meteociel CFS that temperatures were gonna be pretty high this summer, but that may have changed since then. At the moment it very much feels like a dog eat dog situation and lets see who wins basically.

Seems a shame Gavin p doesn't seem to post here at the moment anymore as his seasonal insight seems second to none. From what he told us last month was it wasn't going to be a particularly classic summer with a warning from the bejing climate centre model of wetter weather later on in the summer.

Its very much on a knife edge in my opinion.

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Was wondering with what an active MJO sort of summer would imply? As that along with solar activity, atmospheric angular momentum, PDO and QBO I believe will be our major players this summer. A thing I did catch up with the strats thread is the stratospheric temperature is starting to ascend for what teleconnections that implies for the summer is anybodys guess. This summer will be such a hard season to pin down it really will. Stormchaser on TWO seemed to suggest that the other day on Meteociel CFS that temperatures were gonna be pretty high this summer, but that may have changed since then. At the moment it very much feels like a dog eat dog situation and lets see who wins basically. Seems a shame Gavin p doesn't seem to post here at the moment anymore as his seasonal insight seems second to none. From what he told us last month was it wasn't going to be a particularly classic summer with a warning from the bejing climate centre model of wetter weather later on in the summer. Its very much on a knife edge in my opinion.

I am still punting for a 2010 type summer which includes a nationwide ok/good June, some sort of NW/SE split July and a poorer August. We still have a -PDO and although we now have a westerly QBO, I think unless the PDO becomes neutral or negative - we may be in a poorer standing for decent summers akin to the summers during the 60s. interestingly the atmosphere has been acting in an el niño way recently though - I read somewhere that an el nino period overrides the effects of -PDO, unfortunaely though we have neural ENSO conditions currently.Follow me on twitter: @alexbweather Edited by Alex
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