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Milhouse

Summer 2013

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Intense rainfall for next Thursday on GFS 12Z for parts of England.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1504.png

Rather extreme temperature differences too;

post-12721-0-10259500-1370622692_thumb.j

Not that they should be taken to heart at this timeframe of course!

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Rather extreme temperature differences too;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Not that they should be taken to heart at this timeframe of course!

 

Look at all that heat over France and Holland if only it came this way

Edited by Summer Sun

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Yeah horrid chart that-  gimme the goods! (actually could the goods wait for weekend 22nd pleasssse!)

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Yeah horrid chart that- gimme the goods! (actually could the goods wait for weekend 22nd pleasssse!)

Don't worry, dry by then!! ;) ;)post-12721-0-86826700-1370628032_thumb.j

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brilliant here, 4th day in a row over 21c, unbroken sunshine and little to no breeze. perfect summer weather here in the Lakes

 

Yes fantastic weather for the Lakes! Perfect temperatures and humidity for working outdoors, could take a few more degrees at the weekend but I'm not complaining because it's not raining! Still warm at 17.7C, lovely!

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Down to 10.4c already here. Only got as high as 14.3c.

It appears its all or nothing here. After posting that we were seeing the highest temperatures in the country during April and May to now experiencing some of the lowest.

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Temps still generally in the low 20s/high teens across Ireland. Seems a few official stations reached 24C today

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Down to 11.9 here, this evening. I just hope that the haar clears tomorrow...It must have been a cracking week, in Ireland!

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Down to 11.9 here, this evening. I just hope that the haar clears tomorrow...It must have been a cracking week, in Ireland!

 

It's been a cracking week here - pretty much wall to wall sunshine.  Even if it rains every day after the projected breakdown on Tuesday for the rest of summer it will have bettered last year!

Edited by virtualsphere

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Temps still generally in the low 20s/high teens across Ireland. Seems a few official stations reached 24C today

25c here in Monaghan today.

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25c here in Monaghan today.

 

Is that from your own station?

I saw a few 25s and 26s from non-Met Eireann stations, mainly in the west. Glad is didn't get that warm in Cork!

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A very nice spell here. As mentioned the temperatures really aren't that notable, but at this time of year the strength of the sun means that a lack of cloud/rain and wind makes a real difference in how it feels - 20C under blue skies and calm winds will feel summery but 20C under heavy rain and strong winds won't. Thankfully the former scenario is prevailing at the moment. It feels so cathartic after last year's diabolical autumnal June.

 

Looking into next week, it looks as though the unsettled breakdown won't last too long before ridging from the south brings a return to settled conditions. For some of us at least. I've so often found myself frustratingly on the wrong side of NW-SE splits these past few summers, thanks to the southerly tracking jet impeding the Azores High from ridging far enough north, but this time with the jet to the north (where it bloody well should be!) I'm more confident that I'll be on the right side of the split.

 

Unless of course I've just jinxed it.

Edited by AderynCoch

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Still a very humid 16c here. Really nice though. Easterly winds are most welcome here! :p

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Here's an interesting statistic. The first 7 days of June have been the coldest here since 1991. The mean is 11.6C compared to the rolling 1981-2010 average of 13.4C at this point in the month.

 

Its all the more remarkable when we've had 76 hours of sunshine and just 0.4mm of rain.

 

I cant remember an early-summer period like it in recent years.

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It seems a post-2007 June warm sunny setup now brings the same temperatures as a pre-2007 April or early May one; 20-22C is the best it can manage in 15 hours of sun. Very pleasant spell apart from that muck on Weds and early Thursday, but in the 90s or early 00s we'd have topped 25C by now. 

 

After that spring I wonder if we've entered a further development of the post-2007 deterioration whereby spring (which saved many recent "summers") can no longer produce warmth, and this is the best we can see in early summer. If that's the case I think September is now the best bet for proper heat as the sea will be warmer by then, and and July/Aug just can't seem to produce long settled spells any more. Something like that late Sep/Oct 2011 setup in early Sept just might produce a 30C here.

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Christ We still have moaners despite all the glorious sun. It depends on where the air has originated from and what has mixed into the process imo. We are seeing 24c becing recorded so very warm for us in the west. Its just the Easterly winds hampering things slightly and because that is especially colder than normal and hence why temps may be slightly less. 

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I've posted about this quite recently (not sure if it was in this thread though) but historically dry and sunny but fairly cool weather in June has not tended to be unusual.  In July and August most dry sunny weather is associated with warm tropical air, either via a high pressure cell heading a long way north-east from the Azores, or a Euro high/Atlantic trough setup, but in June it is relatively common to have blocked setups with anticyclones originating to the west and north and pulling down chilly polar air, and if the high is close enough we don't necessarily get a lot of cloud coming in off the North Sea.

 

I think that's really been the key with the first week of June- the high has generally been further south than had been modelled previously and this has restricted the prominence of the easterly flow over Britain and, correspondingly, the inland penetration of low cloud off the North Sea.  I remember that at around the turn of the month, many runs were suggesting a cloudy second half of the week and weekend for eastern areas, rather than a one-off incursion of cloud on Wednesday that soon fizzled out.  But our airmass has originated from relatively high latitudes and that's why the mean temperature has generally been below average.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Here's an interesting statistic. The first 7 days of June have been the coldest here since 1991. The mean is 11.6C compared to the rolling 1981-2010 average of 13.4C at this point in the month.

 

Its all the more remarkable when we've had 76 hours of sunshine and just 0.4mm of rain.

 

I cant remember an early-summer period like it in recent years.

Actually looking back recent Junes haven't too bad. Shows how wet summers screw your view of the month. Only four of the last ten have been above average rain wise with temps around average with a notable cool down since 2006

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In Cork, since May 21st we've only had 1 day that didn't contain long sunny spells, that was May 26th with 1.9 hours sunshine. To find a day with no sunshine, we have to go back to May 7th.

http://www.met.ie/climate/daily-data.asp

 

Already hitting 20C today. I reckon 23 or 24C is likely later.

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Really want to see some educated guesses from the knowledgeables on this forum for late June.

 

Specifically, are we in any way likely to see High Pressure building from an Azores direction about 18th to 22nd June or so onwards? At least for the South?

 

I'm seen some good synoptic projections for that period recently, but JACKONE's analysis in the Glastonbury thread is very mixed, and no-one in the model output discussion thread wants to commit themselves yet ...

Edited by William of Walworth

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Thankfully this gruesome northeasterly is on its last legs and the east coast can look forward to some summerlike warmth lasting into next weekend.

  • Like 2

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Wind direction really makes all the difference for different places at times in this country, many western areas have been enjoying perfect summer weather for a week or more with temps into the 20's and cloudless skies, where as eastern areas have been cooler and at times very cool and cloudy. Later this week things will reverse a bit with warmer weather in the east due to the wind direction.

 

In the west I would crave these summer spells with easterly surface flow, whilst if I lived in the east I would be longing for them to leave. When I am not at uni I am much closer to the west scenario so usually like similar set ups to the current one. Am currently at uni although been decent here usually, would have been great to be in Devon, great place to be in this excellent weather they had.

Edited by Stormmad26

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