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No, they wouldn't have been. June and July were pretty dire, but August wasn't too shabby at all. A run of over 14 days at the start of the month with dry warm/fairly hot weather with kids in paddling pool, and the first 24 days with temps at 20°C or above here in the cool NE speaks volumes (i.e., hardly "only a few decent days").

 

 

I can't recall us having a really good summer since 2006, none of the summers since that have had anything that memorable. But as NickR we did have a relatively good August, and I recall the first couple of weeks of the Olympic torch relay were gorgeous too.

 

I'm certainly not going to write off this summer while we're still in early May but we could really do with some more positive looking charts being thrown into the mix soon, it just seems the norm now that we should expect poor summers, certainly in comparison to the memorable ones of 2003 and 2006!

 

guys...i posted "true. but if anyone was rash enough to write off summer in the first week of june last year...theyd have been correct. so it is possible, and trends over that last several years have been one of northern blocking establishing in early june... then sticking, and ruining the heart of summer with only a few decent days in august at best."

 

please note the bit about august at the end!

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We just nudged 9c here, amid strong winds and driving rain! We are in Spring right...? lol

Yes it is spring but does beg the question why mention it in the summer 2013 thread? Edited by Weather-history
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For me what has changed in the last few years is the magnitude of the 'poor' weather- it always seems to be extremely poor now whenever a settled spell breaks down and this tends to last for weeks or months on end. Today in my area is horrendous- wet, windy, cold, just thoroughly miserable- how often do we get the more 'traditional' British drizzle now? We seem to have driving rain and wind far more frequently and it's often cold with it. Very strong winds used to be associated with autumn but we've had them a lot in the last couple of springs (and summers). I can see the economy being seriously hit if the patterns continue as they are as crops will fail and very few people will stay in the UK for summer holidays. 

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August wasn't great at all, the bank holiday was a complete washout and this was Chester racecourse on the 5th.

 

Posted Image

 

I'll tell my computer and my memory that the data is recorded for August was imagined then, shall I? I'll also tell my kids that the memory they have of spending 2 weeks pretty much every day in the pool was a figment of their imagination. We can all post pics of the odd flood/heavy rain event for a certain part of the country. South and East were pretty good; West and far N, not so good.

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IF is the in word for the model thread, we see it regularly in the winter part of the year and now mushy uses it and then goes on to suggest that IF his theory occurs then June and July could be written.

nushy how about some facts to prove your theory? Secondly IF showing patterns in 19xyz was a good predictor then all the major centres would use this. Fact = they do not and for a very good reason that it is not an accurate or even half accurate way of predicting the next weeks let alone months.

As Botty has posted how about some realism and linking to meteorological prediction rather than some kind of mumbo jumbo?

IF an upper ridge does develop over the next couple of weeks it does not signal the end or likely end of two summer months.

 

hi john... if i could provide facts to prove my theory...it wouldnt be a theory would it! :lol: it would be a fact!

 

of course major centres dont use it, neither do i !!! whatever 'it' is. im just suggesting that a long term pattern change that appears to start in early june, as it did in 98, 99, 07, 08, 12, often ending a lengthy dry spell in may, appears to have a tendancy to stick for some time, effectively 'washing out' the heart of summer. now going off memory alone, i struggle to find a season where june started poorly, only to change dramatically resulting in an excellant summer... 1983 was a prime example, but is a rareity.  this early june northern blocking appears to be happening alot since 06, and lasting at least 2 months, do i really need to post reams of retro charts to highlight what we all know to 'prove' this point? im no technical man, so youre stuck with 'mumbo jumbo', which actually is notion based on fact. you say that the evolution of northern blocking in early june doesnt mean you can accurately write off two months of summer, but i actually said "its a pretty safe bet" plus it did happen in 07,08,12 , and many in the north west could fill in the gaps with 09, 10, 11 too. and even with all the data to hand, the met office got the bbq summer spectacually wrong, so my unscientific suggestion based on recent history cant be worse then their scientific one!

 

as for me employing the word "if", im doing it to highlight the possibility of a weather pattern i dont want to see happen, not one i do want to see happen... not the same as coldies in winter is it! :)

 

anyway, enough of this, its wandered off topic and early june northern blocking hasnt happened yet.

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guys...i posted "true. but if anyone was rash enough to write off summer in the first week of june last year...theyd have been correct. so it is possible, and trends over that last several years have been one of northern blocking establishing in early june... then sticking, and ruining the heart of summer with only a few decent days in august at best."

 

please note the bit about august at the end!

I did. It wasn't a few days.

 

Also, your bit about a few days in August doesn't change the fact that your first statement in bold here is not true for a large part of the country last year, given that August was good.

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you answered your own theory mate

the years you site to confirm supposedly your theory show 5 years out of 15. Hardly a scientific way of predicting which is precisely why the major centres do not use that system. That is all I was trying to show folks who look in on here for predictions be it 24 hours ahead or 24 months ahead.

I have never seen anything in any month that is really meteorologically usable as a predictor on its own. You can use a variety of factors and give weighting to each to arrive at an overall predictor. That is what the main centres do and if you read the various outputs from our sadly departed GP is what he did.

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Posted · Hidden by Cloudwatcher, May 9, 2013 - No reason given
Hidden by Cloudwatcher, May 9, 2013 - No reason given

For me what has changed in the last few years is the magnitude of the 'poor' weather- it always seems to be extremely poor now whenever a settled spell breaks down and this tends to last for weeks or months on end. Today in my area is horrendous- wet, windy, cold, just thoroughly miserable- how often do we get the more 'traditional' British drizzle now? We seem to have driving rain and wind far more frequently and it's often cold with it. Very strong winds used to be associated with autumn but we've had them a lot in the last couple of springs (and summers). I can see the economy being seriously hit if the patterns continue as they are as crops will fail and very few people will stay in the UK for summer holidays. 

 

For me, the most striking feature over the last several weeks has been how comparatively windy it has been here. With a couple of exceptions, even when the conditions have been relatively bright and sunny, the wind has ruined things. (in terms of temperature comfort)

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the latest ENSO update into my e mail

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

It is too early to give serious ideas I would think for the 2013 hurricane season but views are already appearing, partly based on the above output, that the season may be busier than average, one link below is usually reasonably free from overhype.

http://staugustine.com/news/florida-news/2013-04-12/scientists-release-predictions-2013-hurricane-season

Now how any of this fits into an idea of what the UK summer may be like I have no idea.

Come back GP or perhaps chio and one or two others who dabble in longer term predictors might like to set this off.

Maybe better for this anyway in the summer thread?

Edited by johnholmes
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I must agree with the majority on here - we do need a decent nationwide summer. The last few years although have had spells of good weather particularly in the southeast - this has sadly not been a UK event!

It doesn't need to be a 2006 type summer to make people happy just a pretty bog standard 2005 type summer would be fine with some good spells for everyone.

I think the last nationwide decent spell (during summer) goes back to potentially late June 2009? 2010 was good for the south and east and 2011/2012 both failed to provide a nationwide fine spell - late July 2012 was a prime example only covering the southern third of the country.

My preference would be something like a 96 type summer - some sunny weather, some thunderstorms and a decent lot of dry weather to be outside!

Got a twitter account? Add me @alexbweather for more of my weather views and technical analysis.

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You are correct Alex. I would say that the spell from 28th June to 2nd July 2009 was the last nationwide fine and hot spell with temperatures widely 27-30c. Since then there have been nationwide fine spells such as at the start and end of June 2010 and also 8th -12th August last year. But these just had mid to high 20s so nothing remarkable interms of temperatures. There have also been hot spells for the southeast since 2009 such as the middle of August last year.

Edited by Milhouse
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the latest ENSO update into my e mail

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

It is too early to give serious ideas I would think for the 2013 hurricane season but views are already appearing, partly based on the above output, that the season may be busier than average, one link below is usually reasonably free from overhype.

http://staugustine.com/news/florida-news/2013-04-12/scientists-release-predictions-2013-hurricane-season

Now how any of this fits into an idea of what the UK summer may be like I have no idea.

Come back GP or perhaps chio and one or two others who dabble in longer term predictors might like to set this off.

Maybe better for this anyway in the summer thread?

In simple terms I think signs are encouraging for a better summer than recent times. Here are some notes I have made in preparation for my summer forecast.

1) Although we are in a neutral ENSO state we have had some el niño characteristics during spring ie neutral to positive angular momentum and a more active eastward progression of the MJO.

2) Sunspot activity is higher than it has been for a while.

3) Analogues suggest 1969/2004/2006/2008 to be closest years to the present.

4) +QBO (very different to last year which had a very negative reading)

Only main negative is a -PDO !

I will present my full forecast later this month but hopefully this will help settle some nerves as I think the playing field is different to recent years.

I am on twitter - add me for more of my weather views - @alexbweather

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I did. It wasn't a few days.

 

Also, your bit about a few days in August doesn't change the fact that your first statement in bold here is not true for a large part of the country last year, given that August was good.

 

but august 2012 wasnt good... it was p poor with no days of 25c or above here, and very few elsewhere. 1 week was ok, the rest was wet.

 

you answered your own theory mate

the years you site to confirm supposedly your theory show 5 years out of 15. Hardly a scientific way of predicting which is precisely why the major centres do not use that system. That is all I was trying to show folks who look in on here for predictions be it 24 hours ahead or 24 months ahead.

I have never seen anything in any month that is really meteorologically usable as a predictor on its own. You can use a variety of factors and give weighting to each to arrive at an overall predictor. That is what the main centres do and if you read the various outputs from our sadly departed GP is what he did.

 

but john, those 5 were years when northern blocking occured in early june, the other ten years it didnt, or was weaker. maybe if the main centres got around to quantifying/recording the data that could predict the longevity of northern blocking in early june, theyd get the length of that block (and therefore the lrf) more accurate. the point is that it is happening with stark regularity in recent years, there must be a way of measuring why its happening, and therefore predicting the lrf more accurately. its a feature thats ruined 3 out of the last 6 summers (others could argue 6/6).

 

can anyone wanting to respond please do it by pm, or on the summer thread... im aware that this has drifted well off topic... thank you!

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You are correct Alex. I would say that the spell from 28th June to 2nd July 2009 was the last nationwide fine and hot spell with temperatures widely 27-30c. Since then there have been nationwide fine spells such as at the start and end of June 2010 and also 8th -12th August last year. But these just had mid to high 20s so nothing remarkable interms of temperatures. There have also been hot spells for the southeast since 2009 such as the middle of August last year.

Correct me if I'm wrong but can May 2010 be added to the list? I seem to remember the last week of May and beginning of June of 2010 was fairly pleasant (I am only a learner though by the way and don't know much!) ... I'm not too sure what the first half of May was like for that year either ... Of course though the rest of that Summer (July and August) were pretty non-eventful I assume? To be honest ... Summers since 2007 (inclusive) do seem to have had a slight bias towards the most settled spells being May/June rather than July/August but there are exceptions of course. As I say though I cannot really comment too much as I have little knowledge! 

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the latest ENSO update into my e mailhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdfIt is too early to give serious ideas I would think for the 2013 hurricane season but views are already appearing, partly based on the above output, that the season may be busier than average, one link below is usually reasonably free from overhype.http://staugustine.com/news/florida-news/2013-04-12/scientists-release-predictions-2013-hurricane-seasonNow how any of this fits into an idea of what the UK summer may be like I have no idea.Come back GP or perhaps chio and one or two others who dabble in longer term predictors might like to set this off.Maybe better for this anyway in the summer thread?

Are the waters around the equator not cooler than average at this moment in time John? If so would this not suggest a quieter season ahead?
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May 2010 started off cool but the Azores high pushed northwards just after mid month with the warmth peaking on the 23rd. Temperatures reached 29c in the east so for the time of year it was a notably warm spell, though not exceptional like the spell of late September - Early October 2011.

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May 2010 started off cool but the Azores high pushed northwards just after mid month with the warmth peaking on the 23rd. Temperatures reached 29c in the east so for the time of year it was a notably warm spell, though not exceptional like the spell of late September - Early October 2011.

Thanks for clearing that up! It does just go to show how little/brief settled spells have been these last 6 or so Summers ... of course there have been many settled spells to be fond of as mentioned above but these just get forgotten very quickly due to the number of more unsettled spells. The models are looking rather sad though if we want a notable settled spell of any kind before the 20-25th May 

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I'll tell my computer and my memory that the data is recorded for August was imagined then, shall I? I'll also tell my kids that the memory they have of spending 2 weeks pretty much every day in the pool was a figment of their imagination. We can all post pics of the odd flood/heavy rain event for a certain part of the country. South and East were pretty good; West and far N, not so good.

Agreed. I went on camping for a few weekends down south, followed by a long 2 weeks in se England. Out of 24 days it only rained on 1. Admittedly I used the charts and the forum and picked my locations. But August was a much better month for some in 2012.

hi john... if i could provide facts to prove my theory...it wouldnt be a theory would it! Posted Image it would be a fact!

of course major centres dont use it, neither do i !!! whatever 'it' is. im just suggesting that a long term pattern change that appears to start in early june, as it did in 98, 99, 07, 08, 12, often ending a lengthy dry spell in may, appears to have a tendancy to stick for some time, effectively 'washing out' the heart of summer. now going off memory alone, i struggle to find a season where june started poorly, only to change dramatically resulting in an excellant summer... 1983 was a prime example, but is a rareity. this early june northern blocking appears to be happening alot since 06, and lasting at least 2 months, do i really need to post reams of retro charts to highlight what we all know to 'prove' this point? im no technical man, so youre stuck with 'mumbo jumbo', which actually is notion based on fact. you say that the evolution of northern blocking in early june doesnt mean you can accurately write off two months of summer, but i actually said "its a pretty safe bet" plus it did happen in 07,08,12 , and many in the north west could fill in the gaps with 09, 10, 11 too. and even with all the data to hand, the met office got the bbq summer spectacually wrong, so my unscientific suggestion based on recent history cant be worse then their scientific one!

as for me employing the word "if", im doing it to highlight the possibility of a weather pattern i dont want to see happen, not one i do want to see happen... not the same as coldies in winter is it! Posted Image

anyway, enough of this, its wandered off topic and early june northern blocking hasnt happened yet.

Summers frequently have a rainy spell during june in the uk. Its called the European monsoon. It usually lasts 2 weeks but sometimes arrives and never leaves. The last few summers a prime example. But lots of rain in June does not necessarily mean a poor summer.

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Are the waters around the equator not cooler than average at this moment in time John? If so would this not suggest a quieter season ahead?

I honestly do not know if they are as I have not looked and as I suggested it is a bit early for forecasts on how active the hurricane season may be. That said both NOAA and UK Met are usually in print about it some time this month.
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but august 2012 wasnt good... it was p poor with no days of 25c or above here, and very few elsewhere. 1 week was ok, the rest was wet.  but john, those 5 were years when northern blocking occured in early june, the other ten years it didnt, or was weaker. maybe if the main centres got around to quantifying/recording the data that could predict the longevity of northern blocking in early june, theyd get the length of that block (and therefore the lrf) more accurate. the point is that it is happening with stark regularity in recent years, there must be a way of measuring why its happening, and therefore predicting the lrf more accurately. its a feature thats ruined 3 out of the last 6 summers (others could argue 6/6). can anyone wanting to respond please do it by pm, or on the summer thread... im aware that this has drifted well off topic... thank you!

mushy I do not think that 5 events out of 15 occasions = 'stark regularity' but perhaps we should just agree to differ on that interpretation.
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Summers frequently have a rainy spell during june in the uk. Its called the European monsoon. It usually lasts 2 weeks but sometimes arrives and never leaves. The last few summers a prime example. But lots of rain in June does not necessarily mean a poor summer.

 

Over the majority of recent summers June has been the best month, obviously not every year and last year was a notable exception, but 2003-06 and 2009-2010 saw average average temps, 2002-2006 and 2008-2010 saw below average rain, ad 2003-2006 and 2008-2011 saw above average sunshine. Most of this apply countrywide, but some only to Southern UK. No other summer winter have seen above average weather is such a fashion.

 

If recent Julys and Augusts had matched the June weather, people wouldn't be complaining about recent summers.

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Average would be nice... but no chance of that with the summer climate in it's current form. 

 

Average would go a long way to ensure quality growth in gardens and agriculture.. the weather we have now is just more likely to produce rot.

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Are the waters around the equator not cooler than average at this moment in time John? If so would this not suggest a quieter season ahead?

 

Slightly cooler than normal in the equatorial Pacific, but slightly above in both the equatorial Atlantic and Indian oceans.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gif

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I know it seems a bit optimistic, but my gut is telling me that we are going to see a warmer than normal summer. Pressure just seems to be lower over Greenland, much more than it was last year by a country mile. This allows the jet to remain North rather than be forced South like what we saw last summer especially. 

I know some people might think I might be mad, but I would put money on touching perhaps 34c this summer, and I think it will happen mid to late July. I think the rest of this month could be dominated by low pressure and also into June too, but I think we will see a reversal to High pressure dominating July and perhaps August. A clear gambling and guessing game at the minute, but they are my thoughts and opinions at present. 

I definitely think we could see our warmest summer this time since 2006.

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Average would be nice... but no chance of that with the summer climate in it's current form. 

 

 

Average would indeed be nice, but I'm not sure I'd go as far as to say there's no chance, after all August last year was a fairly average month and we've had above average Junes in recent years.

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