Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter

[Panayiotis]

Yep I mentioned yesterday that there was a consistent theme for another cold pool of air to sink south into Europe. Whether we can tap into it is a different matter but the risk is certainly there IMO.

CFS had this idea too last night but has dropped in its latest run...

Edited March 28, 2013 by Panayiotis

[karlos1983]

guys...it really is a complete waste of time looking at fi for any grains of hope, regardless of whether its cold or heat. anything past t240 = forget it.

Probably true, but it is rolling out, so it will naturally get discussed!

[Purga]

Don't say those blighters in the Channel Islands and the Frogs have nicked our south coast snow again!

Edited March 28, 2013 by Purga

[Panayiotis]

Don't say those blighters in the Channel Islands and the Frogs have nicked our south coast snow again!

Yes, yes they have

[karlos1983]

Don't say those blighters in the Channel Islands and the Frogs have nicked our south coast snow again!

Last minute push North by 100 miles would do nicely.

This morning it showed the PPN glancing the south coast, good old NAE, not been covered in glory this winter.

Edited March 28, 2013 by karlos1983

[Captain Shortwave]

The charts just look like cold, cold and more cold to be honest. We will need to see nearer the time the amount of sunshine and/or snow we can squeeze out of the set up. Seems like a massive victory for the evil gasman to be honest (maybe he's turned the sun down to cold)

[Panayiotis]

Ensembles for my area (06Z), looking cold and dry right up the 8th of April, lets see how the 12z ensembles compare.

http://modeles.meteo...run=6&runpara=0

Edited March 28, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Summer Sun]

Don't say those blighters in the Channel Islands and the Frogs have nicked our south coast snow again!

Yes looks like more snow and Gales for them tomorrow

[Scorcher]

The charts just look like cold, cold and more cold to be honest. We will need to see nearer the time the amount of sunshine and/or snow we can squeeze out of the set up. Seems like a massive victory for the evil gasman to be honest (maybe he's turned the sun down to cold)

I don't think this tells the whole story though, cold yes compared to the average but the cold will certainly become less extreme next week. For the most part I imagine it will be 6-9C by day which is cold but definitely not as cold as it has been this week- in any sunshine (which is as strong as mid September now) it should feel much better but with frosts continuing overnight.

[Captain Shortwave]

I don't think this tells the whole story though, cold yes compared to the average but the cold will certainly become less extreme next week. For the most part I imagine it will be 6-9C by day which is cold but definitely not as cold as it has been this week- in any sunshine (which is as strong as mid September now) it should feel much better but with frosts continuing overnight.

8/9 might be reached in the West in sheltered areas, the Easterly wind looks like kicking up a gear next week so temperatures of around 4-6 degrees in a strong wind will feel pretty raw to be honest.

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEFS ensemble mean at 192....Look NE as retrogression theme ala 12z op seems to be gathering pace.

I wonder if we can get a significantly below average April to follow on from March?

Edited March 28, 2013 by CreweCold

[SE Blizzards]

Someone said on here the other day that this spring might have a great chance of going down as one of the coldest springs ever this year and i've got to say that i totally agree because i really can't see this locked in weather pattern changing much over the next 2 weeks/maybe much longer than that. And even if the pattern does change then we really are going to have to see some record breaking warmth for spring as a 3 month period to get anywhere near average temperature wise.

Looking at the 12Z Ens and i'm afraid for all the mildies its more of the same... cold, cold, and yes you've guessed it... more cold!

One crumb of comfort for them though is that BST starts on Sunday

Edited March 28, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[Cheshire Freeze]

Someone said on here the other day that this spring might have a great chance of going down as one of the coldest springs ever this year and i've got to say that i totally agree because i really can't see this locked in weather pattern changing over the next 2 weeks/maybe much longer than that. And even if the pattern does change then we really are going to have to see some record breaking warmth for spring as a 3 month period to get anywhere near average temperature wise.

Looking at the 12Z Ens and i'm affraid for all the mildies its more of the same... cold, cold, cold!

Looking at the days 9-10 range, some fun could be about to kick off in terms of NE'ly winds, cold uppers and convective potential!

[Captain Shortwave]

GEFS ensemble mean at 192....Look NE as retrogression theme ala 12z op seems to be gathering pace.

I wonder if we can get a significantly below average April to follow on from March?

Interesting, lets see what the ECM shows, could have a retrogression signal vs a sinking high situation but with the two models being in the reverse camps. ECM ens seemed to want to sink heights this morning though the op built a massive Scandi high.

[SE Blizzards]

Looking at the days 9-10 range, some fun could be about to kick off in terms of NE'ly winds, cold uppers and convective potential!

Yes, definitely growing support for a reload of sorts from the NE, and maybe some snowfall.

Something most certainly worth keeping an eye on in future outputs.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Interesting, lets see what the ECM shows, could have a retrogression signal vs a sinking high situation but with the two models being in the reverse camps. ECM ens seemed to want to sink heights this morning though the op built a massive Scandi high.

Again, a point I've stressed many times over the past couple of months, the ECM ops will be the key over the ensembles....especially when we're talking about fine margins of error over energy distribution......and even these will fluctuate on a whim. The De Bilt ensembles that Gavin keeps posting will also be about as useful as a catflap on a submarine in putting the scenario into context.

[mushymanrob]

snowshowers off a northeasterly in april?.. rarer then a white christmas... my monies on a stratus layer, dull grey, raw, even drizzly, especially as the pressure looks to be high.

[Captain Shortwave]

Again, a point I've stressed many times over the past couple of months, the ECM ops will be the key over the ensembles....especially when we're talking about fine margins of error over energy distribution......and even these will fluctuate on a whim. The De Bilt ensembles that Gavin keeps posting will also be about as useful as a catflap on a submarine in putting the scenario into context.

I only mentioned it because the ECM ens this morning seem to follow the ECM op from yesterdays 12z which was rather strange.

[Cheshire Freeze]

snowshowers off a northeasterly in april?.. rarer then a white christmas... my monies on a stratus layer, dull grey, raw, even drizzly, especially as the pressure looks to be high.

Ian (TWS) will name you several instances of convective snow showers in April.

I only mentioned it because the ECM ens this morning seem to follow the ECM op from yesterdays 12z which was rather strange.

When looking at the ensemble mean maps for the ECM that cold pool of air is still shown to the NE....it's just synoptics around our shores aren't shown to support its movement SW

[rory o gorman]

You can indeed get snow from a NE flow in April, but not with the heights gfs 12z has shown. its a stratus fest.

[mushymanrob]

i said 'rarer then a white christmas'... not 'you cant get snowshowers off a north easterly in april'...

im prone to showers off the north sea when theres a breeze north of east. indeed most of 'my' snow in winter arrives by such a route. ive experienced a couple of occassions where ive had wintriness in the last 40 years, i cannot recall snowshowers in april.

synoptically the charts are heading very similar to april 74, well remembered locally for the dull, cold, overcast mornings then the brighter sunnier afternoons as the sun burned back the stratus. the difference between 74 and now is the colder uppers. so im not writing off snowshowers especially as these conditions are remarkable. but going off current output im not expecting them for most.

of course the observations made pertain locally, alot of other locations might be more prone to april snowshowers, the southeast for eg.

[Tim Bland]

You can indeed get snow from a NE flow in April, but not with the heights gfs 12z has shown. its a stratus fest.

Then why does the GFS 12z show showers when it takes into account everything including heights etc ?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=228&code=0&mode=2

[I remember Atlantic 252]

north sea convective snow in April exceptionally unlikely, sea is too cold to create convection, in Dec though huge snow showers from warm sea

[Lincslad]

Yes looks like more snow and Gales for them tomorrow

With temps of 7 degrees there today, i would say it will be wet and windy in Jersey tomorrow, not snowy.

[Mucka]

When you find that GFS ensembles are hinting at reverse zonal in FI you know you are in for the long haul!

The ensemble graphs are showing less cold through the mid term due to the high forming at a lower latitude than originally modelled, something I alluded to as a possibility a few days ago. Unfortunately the jet remains stubbornly to the South so the long shot that it would be forced over a declining block and break down this Easterly spell have all but vanished.

The longer term trend now seems to be for the blocking to establish just NE of the UK but retrogress from there bringing in the possibility of a severe cold blast from the NE in the second week of April - that is not to say it will ever get near to average before this.

Of course that is beyond FI really but the long term is currently trending in that direction, just an early heads up.

Looking at the more predictable time-frame then we should see temperatures rise a degree or two as we lose some of the colder upper air but the feed will still be Easterly based so any warming will be more significant statistically than in "real feel" terms on the ground.

West is best and close your eyes, get out of the wind and into the sunshine and you may just feel the promise of warmth upon your cheeks like a fleeting kiss from an unrequited love before she leaves you, standing alone and cold, longing for something more.

Erm sorry, got a bit whimsical, the cold is getting to me!

Edited March 28, 2013 by Mucka