Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[shuggee]

Looking forward to some true late autumn season weather - just like mid to late November should be like. Snow at elevation, frost and fog. Loverly.

[Gavin Hannah]

Bring on 2010 a winter!

[syed2878]

the problem with the model discussion thread is that as soon as a cold spel start showing people lose grip in realaty and go into a full ramping mode, and those who try to put some objective comments they get ignored. Likes of ian brown and even model rolacoster who get abit of stick for not ramping. Again this cold snap was over hiped and there was even talk of dec 2010 was on the cards.

[sundog]

When a cold snap or spell starts showing up you often get posters losing the run of themselves and things get ramped up but there was some very good charts a few days ago which can suck people in. One should try to keep ones feet on the ground at all times when it comes to the weather but in the excitement that can be difficult.

[conor123]

RANT: Very disappointing (and predictable) turn of events sealing this Autumn's fate as one of the blandest, dullest and uneventful in living memory, even tomorrow night's Cheshire Gap potential has now significantly downgraded as expected but after yet another sunless miserable day today the prospect of possibly over a week of no sunshine and north sea grot with 6c days 4c night's starting later this week is horrific.

Edited November 17, 2013 by conor123

[Average Joe]

the problem with the model discussion thread is that as soon as a cold spel start showing people lose grip in realaty and go into a full ramping mode, and those who try to put some objective comments they get ignored. Likes of ian brown and even model rolacoster who get abit of stick for not ramping. Again this cold snap was over hiped and there was even talk of dec 2010 was on the cards.

Couldn't agree with these sentiments more. I understand that after a mild and wet few weeks that the cold weather fans would get excited at the promise of the first cold spell of the season, but some of the frothing at the mouth, hypes, ramps etc has been ridiculous, even for the model thread!! Almost Nathan Rao like....the Model thread is "braced" etc:)

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I don't know know how anyone can be bothered with all the agro of analysing every smallest detail of 24 hours of every model of every model run. It seems to drive quite a few bonkers lol. A very quick glance of the 00z and 12z runs from the ecm and ukmo, And a quick shifty at the 500 mb mean is more than enough to be able to determine what is going on now and what may happen in the future.

Edited November 17, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Uh oh things must be looking bad for cold as the NAVGEM has been elevated to god like status.

[Average Joe]

I don't know know how anyone can be bothered with all the agro of analysing every smallest detail of 24 hours of every model of every model run. It seems to drive quite a few bonkers lol. A very quick glance of the 00z and 12z runs from the ecm and ukmo, And a quick shifty at the 500 mb mean is more than enough to be able to determine what is going on now and what may happen in the future.

It's that, combined with the fact that they're always looking for snow, and not just cold, which tends to distort the comments that many make, and also that they seem to be obsessed with what's possibly going to happen over a week away rather than what's ahead in the coming 3 or 4 days. Frosty appears to be something akin to a Daily Express reporter at the moment with constant use of adjectives like "reload" and "arctic blasts"!

[Wilxy]

Really looking forward to the 6z GFS some very intresting charts this morning!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Below from twitter

 

ECMWF model undergoes some upgrades this week, especially medium range and the EC32 model

 

As we know from the model thread the models control and decide our weather  , so i am now fully expecting our winters to become colder and snowier

[Bristawl Si]

 

Looks like a boring 10 days or so coming up, weatherwise.The kind of weather that is cold but dry, dull and means the heating still has to be on.

Model output in last 12 hours or so says"As you were".Yawn!!

[throwoff]

12 foot of snow before the end of the week.

 

Dont mind me, just having a ramp.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

What is it with argueing about the GFS. The GFS is a big sticky turd. That is all.

 

Still looking cold, if not as cold as what models were showing in much earlier runs.

Still looking like HP will be main driver of our weather for a while even though the models are still have not agreed on exact placement of the HP.

Edited November 18, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[ARNOTT ad]

It gets me quite frustrated when people keep saying -it's not winter yet, these charts bode well for later on etc etc. well actually they don't. The model output right now was potentially showing some very exciting 'potential' cold conditions!! We may never see similar Synoptics again this season. It is also perfectly normal for snow at this time of the year.

If the current output by the gfs continues to grow and gain support then I can quiet easily say that the next 3-4weeks at least will be pretty much uneventful if you like snow and cold. (Okay maybe slightly frosty). Then were talking winter rolling away before our eyes in no time.

[bluearmy]

 It is also perfectly normal for snow at this time of the year. 

er no it isnt unless you're in scotland or on a hill.  (if you are just talking about wintry showers then its a pointless discussion anyway)

[ARNOTT ad]

Boring few weeks of settled but at least cold weather. Nothing wintry though.

[Chris K]

Boring few weeks of settled but at least cold weather. Nothing wintry though.

Few weeks....? Got any evidence to suggest it will last that long apart from assumptions?

[karlos1983]

Boring few weeks of settled but at least cold weather. Nothing wintry though.

 

Few weeks? interesting view, the models are struggling to get agreement at day 5 never mind day 7/14/21

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Boring few weeks of settled but at least cold weather. Nothing wintry though.

 

about time, sick of all this bloody rain, I am a big snow fan, but it's too early for snow yet in my location/elevation, so I want it fine and settled, preferably of course cold and sunny

[ARNOTT ad]

Few weeks....? Got any evidence to suggest it will last that long apart from assumptions?

Trust me on this one. This pattern will stick for a while. Eventually the high will allow in the west or south west.

[Ali1977]

I wish exacta weathers Mr Madden would join in these chats, see how he determines the Express headlines from the charts.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

gefs control similar to ECMWF FI, so hope of it happening, not ideal FI on ECMWF for areas away from the south snow wise but still deep FI

[Matty M]

An underwhelming set of output from a cold perspective tonight, but we could certainly be in a lot worse shape than we are in mid November.

[ZONE 51]

Why so much change in the models? Like tryin to get one to pose to get that perfect picture of an interesting cold wintry spell..yet keeps changing and just can't make up there mind.. just shows the cold block not quite there yet its just not, but its a start!