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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps


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Wouldn't normally post on the moaning thread as I generally don't like to be negative but I have to say the performance of the metoffice over the last few weeks has been abysmal. Longer range forecasts vague to the point of being useless, five dayers even worse and now today I've just seen Peter Gibbs saying there is a possibility of showers in the south but otherwise a dry and increasingly bright day - well here in Birmingham it's been raining all morning! It seems they can't even predict the weather when it's actually happening.  Yes I know weather forecasting is difficult but it's not as if these people are keen amateurs. This is a professional organisation with a huge amount of public funding behind it - if we all did our jobs as badly we wouldn't last long. Like I say sorry for the rant and I know JH is probably going to be on my case, but I'm trying to get the washing dry and getting increasingly frustrated. 

agree the short term forecasts are worse than i have ever known, i have ranted a lot about the bbc 5 dayers and the GFS temp predictions recently but i will say no more on that

Edited by Tony27
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Well no surprise to find we have had very little in the way of thundery activity over night across the south, as usual we have all got excited for nothing, exactly the same in the winter when we should have snow and it doesn't happen.........................................

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I do love to read some of the posts in here, as I've posted in another thread the weather has and will continue to make those of us who attempt to predict what it will do short and long term as fools at times.

No one can tell what the weather will be 6-10 weeks down the line, and teleconnections as I have discovered do not work always, I'm sure GP if he was around would agree. Like any other forecast tool they are not 100% or even 60% at times near the mark at the time scales we use them. Who knows that an abrupt turn around may give us another 2006 spell or a 1995 was it? And as to the chat that 'we used to get this that or the other'. Our memories are very selective and we remember what we would like to remember, some half full some half empty but that is human nature.

Come the end of September and we will be able to look back and say how 'summer' was in our own parts of the country. Already some areas, not this one sadly, have had days of warmth and sunshine, not a bad start to summer I would have thought?

 

true, well not with any accuracy anyway, but does that mean you are suggesting that lrf's are a waste of time?

 

as for 06 and 95, there were pre-cursors to those hot summers with short hot spells before the main event kick in, as id suggest nearly all hot summers do. only 83 and 75 was there a complete u turn, even 75 was hot by week 1 of summer.

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Warm uppers but too much cloud therefore temperatures of no real note. Well I say no real note but 22c is of note with the durge we constantly get.

Still no sun though and I can't see where we will get any, any warmth struggles to last. I can see is not getting even a 27c this year.

It's constantly grey almost all year round for the bulk of the year being hardly distiguishable.

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Not expecting too much heat here either, but then I'm not a heat seeker! Anything over about 20c is wasted on me. The only upside of hotter days, is that the evening becomes more usable.

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The Gfs 00z operational run also shows a spell of fine anticyclonic and pleasantly warm weather next week but then becomes very unsettled and cooler.

A brief ridge more like it, that won't be particularly warm and most probably cloudy, after this weekend's rubbish. Then next weekend another horrific scenario with a deep low the likes of which we rarely see in January, let alone June, sat right on top of the UK for days. Oh joy! Absolute shocker of a run, let's hope that changes drastically.
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A brief ridge more like it, that won't be particularly warm and most probably cloudy, after this weekend's rubbish. Then next weekend another horrific scenario with a deep low the likes of which we rarely see in January, let alone June, sat right on top of the UK for days. Oh joy! Absolute shocker of a run, let's hope that changes drastically.

It's not a brief ridge, it's a proper anticyclone which lasts for most of next week, most of the model output shows a settled and pleasantly warm spell next week apart from the Navgem 00z which is very much on it's own, currently there is a lot to be encouraged about for next week, nearly every single post you put on here is a moan.

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Gibbys summation this morning looks pretty much on the money to me. Higher pressure should bring a spell of less unsettled weather next week, but the pattern touted by both main models suggest there are questions over both the strength and longevity of any ridge, with LP again looking favourite to sweep back in off of the Atlantic later in the period. This at best looks like a pattern tweek as opposed to a pattern change, with things actually looking worse than they are currently as we go into July.... IF the longer term GFS evolution is to be believed that is.

 

The pattern next week looks like perfect "forum weather" to me. Not horrible enough (yet) to be greeted by billions of toys being thrown out of tiny cyber prams and not good enough for all the kitten-drowners to suddenly appear and start scrabbling frantically through the charts trying to find the breakdown and then posting all the charts that show it.

 

Remember last year when every weekend was greeted with a massive, spiralling, dartboard low? I do, beacuse it wrote off about 80% of my fishing season. This hasn't been the case so far this year so it's almost comforting to see this weekend being written off, next week looking ok (while i'm at work) and then potentially (if the GFS operational at t+240 whatever with limited support from the ensembles is to be believed) a repeat the weekend after.

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Fantastic post, thank you. There really hasn't been enough mention of the fact that the patterns this year are VERY different from last June. It seems like many are hyping up the lows when they move in and playing down any signs high pressure moving in, despite the signals being strong from the ECM 00Z this morning. We are certainly going to get a lot more reasonable dry days over the next week than washout days. Funny that many are complaining about a lack of heat when last June they'd have bitten your hand off for a dry day at 19C.

Fair enough, but last June was truly extraordinarily bad. Not really something to compare to, is it? I always thought comparisons were made with the average?So far this 'summer', my location (usually one of the warmest) has achieved the average maximum temperature TWICE. Note not exceeded, just achieved. Since then cloud cover has been consistent, temperatures suppressed and very windy conditions frequent. So forgive me for 'moaning', but that is the reality. I am biased towards hot and sunny weather, but at the moment average would be fine. Not screaming gales, cold and constant grey skies.
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At the risk of a perma ban I am sticking up for myself and saying that I am sick and tired of all the moaning from Stainesbloke. There is a moaning thread go and moan there !!!!!!! Its model output discussion not psychotherapy discussion for your feelings about what the weather might be like.

Gee, thanks....I thought I was commenting on chart/model output and recent conditions. You can always ignore my posts if they bother you that much?
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This June has compared pretty favourably to the average. In fact it's been much drier and sunnier than average so far with the temperature running below average mainly due to the cool nights. Then again you do live in the South East where it has been rather cloudier than areas further north. I imagine people further north and west (such as myself) would have a rather different opinion of June so far.

Yes I comment from an imby point of view, I'll admit, apologies for any confusuion.

This June has compared pretty favourably to the average. In fact it's been much drier and sunnier than average so far with the temperature running below average mainly due to the cool nights. Then again you do live in the South East where it has been rather cloudier than areas further north. I imagine people further north and west (such as myself) would have a rather different opinion of June so far.

Yes I comment from an imby point of view, I'll admit, apologies for any confusuion.
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Just to show how truly awful the weather in the London area has been so far this first month of meteorological summer I have gone to the trouble of extracting the Heathrow data for maximum temperature and sunshine each day to the 18 th.

temperature in C on the left and sunshine in hours on the right

1 19 8

2 19 12

3 19 13

4 21 14

5 22 9

6 23 13

7 21 5

8 19 11

9 15 0

10 16 0

11 18 1

12 18 0

13 19 2

14 20 5

15 18 6

16 18 2

17 21 0

18 21 3

no idea what the averages are for June, perhaps our correspondent from Staines might take the time and trouble to post them?

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you are one of the most moaning characters in the nearly 10 years I have been on this site, some folk have had worse than you, why not act like an adult rather than a spoilt 5 year old?

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Well nothing at all to smile about for this weekends weather. A real, albeit expected, disappointment.

I can only but hope it doesn't lash it down all day as it will make our plans next to impossible. Either way everyone will be shivering during the outdoor portions and will cram into the marquee which simply won't be big enough (until we sit for dinner).

Knew I should have got married in any country but this one - even Iceland would be a better choice! 

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Just to show how truly awful the weather in the London area has been so far this first month of meteorological summer I have gone to the trouble of extracting the Heathrow data for maximum temperature and sunshine each day to the 18 th.temperature in C on the left and sunshine in hours on the right1 19 82 19 123 19 134 21 145 22 96 23 137 21 58 19 119 15 010 16 011 18 112 18 013 19 214 20 515 18 616 18 217 21 018 21 3no idea what the averages are for June, perhaps our correspondent from Staines might take the time and trouble to post them?

The average June temp for Heathrow ranges from 20-22C, warming as the month progresses. Average sunshine hours for the month are 200 hrs. Not sure about wind could find out.
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you are one of the most moaning characters in the nearly 10 years I have been on this site, some folk have had worse than you, why not act like an adult rather than a spoilt 5 year old?

Is that aimed at me? Why are you attacking me? Don't think I deserve that. Last winter was a season of moans and wrist slashing (which I didn't get involved in), am I so bad? Apologies if so, when i suffer sleepless nights because of shoulder arthritis I can be grumpy. This problem is getting worse each year since 2008.
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sorry to hear about that s but many of your posts in the model thread are really more of a moan and this is the place for them please?

Ok no probs will keep any moans here, please leave out the personal attacks though, that upset me.
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how do we know what the real official data is though, i have looked on various sites and all of them have different current temps for my area, one says 23.5c another one says 24.2c and another one 24.7c and where do i find the data for june in luton?

 

and on a site i looked at it says the average temp is only 17c for here in june, i know we are on high ground but i still thought it was 19c?

plus its always a bit warmer at airports anyway i don't live near the airport

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