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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps


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Terrible outputs this morning along with rubbish teleconnections (MJO , weak AAM) this is turning out to be a great summer - not!

It seems so hard these days to get a decent couple of weeks though I bet when winter comes we get snow and cold as per the last few years.

Fed up already!

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I do love to read some of the posts in here, as I've posted in another thread the weather has and will continue to make those of us who attempt to predict what it will do short and long term as fools at times.

No one can tell what the weather will be 6-10 weeks down the line, and teleconnections as I have discovered do not work always, I'm sure GP if he was around would agree. Like any other forecast tool they are not 100% or even 60% at times near the mark at the time scales we use them. Who knows that an abrupt turn around may give us another 2006 spell or a 1995 was it? And as to the chat that 'we used to get this that or the other'. Our memories are very selective and we remember what we would like to remember, some half full some half empty but that is human nature.

Come the end of September and we will be able to look back and say how 'summer' was in our own parts of the country. Already some areas, not this one sadly, have had days of warmth and sunshine, not a bad start to summer I would have thought?

Edited by johnholmes
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no one can know what the weather will do 24 hours sometimes let alone 6 weeks, yesterday was yet another short term cock up by the models, it was mean't to rain here and i got nothing  it was a good job i watered my allotment on tuesday as i thought the rain would end up further south and miss here and it did

 

i see the GFS is teasing us again us with some heat yet again for later next week  

Edited by Tony27
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no one can know what the weather will do 24 hours sometimes let alone 6 weeks, yesterday was yet another short term cock up by the models, it was mean't to rain here and i got nothing it was a good job i watered my allotment on tuesday as i thought the rain would end up further south and miss here and it didi see the GFS is teasing us again us with some heat yet again for later next week

I didn't water my allotment as looking at the charts it looked like we'd get some useful rain. Of course we have had 5 mins of heavy drizzle but days of dark cloud and cold wind. GFS can tease all it likes but any heat will be in E Europe as usual not here.
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yep this is bad weather for my crops no useful rain, and not much sun, but the wind is the worst thing esp for my little tomatoes, but what can we do, we cannot control the weather

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Yes the constant wind is annoying, even in the few sunny days last week it was windy. Growing all my toms in a polytunnel this year so I hopefully get some crop! Wat u growing?

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Damn wind Posted Image

 

Lost another 2 fence posts and a panel this month and I too used to grow some plants, but gave up after the wind in recent years trashed them and my mini poly green house.

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Longest day at end of next week then we head back towards winter.

Apart from a few sunny days last week its been average at best so far this summer.

We've not had one day where you could say "wow that was a scorcher. :(

Remainder of this month is looking unsettled then we've only got about 8 weeks left to get some really hot weather.

I've a feeling it won't happen and it will go down as another poor summer.

At least in 8 weeks time we can start looking at early signs for winter. :)

Edited by Bradowl
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Yes the constant wind is annoying, even in the few sunny days last week it was windy. Growing all my toms in a polytunnel this year so I hopefully get some crop! Wat u growing?

some of the things im growing are spuds, onions, lettuce, fennel, cucumbers, french beans and toms, but most things are still quite small, most things will catch up im sure, but i doubt the toms will be ready in time before the autumn, i've also got an apple tree and a couple of blackberry bushes, the blackberry bushes and apples tree have gone wild though this year, what am i going to do with 100 apples and about 300 blackberries set up a market?

 

anyway there is a gardening area in the lounge section if you want to chat with fellow gardeners in there

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Posting for the first time in a couple of months (frankly the weather here has been as inspiring as the England Under 21 football team). I would like to congratulate mother nature on beginning. this summer on an even worse note to last year. Please accept a slap in the face with a wet fish. North Easterlies are now banned until November.

I regret being positive about that cold March as the resulting well below average sea temperatures down here are not helping at all. 

So far in late spring/early summer, very cold compared to average with temperatures even last week struggling to get into double figures. Frequent spells of winds from the North/North East bringing overcast weather. Also thunderstorm count is still at zero. Bad times, as bad as last summer was, we got a lot of storms here which was the only saving grace (if you didn't get flooded of course)

Edited by Captain shortwave
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It's like somebody a few years ago developed a giant low-pressure attracting magnet that automatically switches on as soon as we near summertime. ECM with a typical chart of recent summers

 

Posted Image

 

Nice across most of the N. Hemisphere, troughs swarming around and over us like wasps around a jar of honey.

 

Has felt like October the past few days.

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Another set of totally uninspiring model runs, whether wet or dry it looks chilly and not especially sunny. The lovely Azores high ain't moving an inch is it?! Grrrrr!!!!

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Went to Otley carnival this afternoon, the parade started at 1.15pm and a minute later the heavens opened. Really felt sorry for the kids in the parade, some of them were crying but hats off to them they kept on going. After the parade (which was great!) it cleared up with blue skies and sunshine for the rest of the afternoon until another downpour at teatime.

Come on mother nature, give us a break!

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Rain can make summer events a misery at times but thankfully there seems to be more dry weather around this June compared to last. A far cry from last year with several event cancellations due to waterlogged ground. Today was a nice suprise here with mostly blue skies from Midday until late Afternoon and the only shower came early this morning.

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Yes I agree, last year Harewood House classic car show (which is today) was cancelled as was the Great Yorkshire Show.

Yesterday was mostly dry with some good sunny periods, it was just the timing of the downpour that was most unfortunate.

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WHY is every LP system just directed at the UK? Even with low heights around Greenland we STILL cannot get sustaining in HP! I swear this wasnt an issue pre 2007. I believe we are screwed for many summers to come unless things change rapidly.

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WHY is every LP system just directed at the UK? Even with low heights around Greenland we STILL cannot get sustaining in HP! I swear this wasnt an issue pre 2007. I believe we are screwed for many summers to come unless things change rapidly.

Yup, agree, the UK seems to be one big trough magnet. I remember low pressure used to come and pass by, not sit over us for months at a time. Am desperately hoping this is not a long term change!
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Looking for summer in this country has become a big challenge, to get 25c an even greater one.

You could put us in the middle of the Sahara and we'd still attract cloud and the rest of the tripe we get.

Edited by rmc1987
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Wouldn't normally post on the moaning thread as I generally don't like to be negative but I have to say the performance of the metoffice over the last few weeks has been abysmal. Longer range forecasts vague to the point of being useless, five dayers even worse and now today I've just seen Peter Gibbs saying there is a possibility of showers in the south but otherwise a dry and increasingly bright day - well here in Birmingham it's been raining all morning! It seems they can't even predict the weather when it's actually happening.  Yes I know weather forecasting is difficult but it's not as if these people are keen amateurs. This is a professional organisation with a huge amount of public funding behind it - if we all did our jobs as badly we wouldn't last long. Like I say sorry for the rant and I know JH is probably going to be on my case, but I'm trying to get the washing dry and getting increasingly frustrated. 

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I do think they have been/might be under-doing maxima for this week in parts of the south, unless there aren't any cloud breaks at all which I don't think there will be the case. However in some cases forecasters can only do as well as the models etc providing the data?

 

I feel like I could insert a little moan this morning though:

 

Why does the ECM seem intent on positioning low pressure in just the way to get almost the coldest uppers possible over us, as it often does. Doesn't show the low centre over us with a chance of sunshine and heavy/convective showers, and feeling better between them with lighter winds, just has it a bit further NE with strong cool winds.

 

I try to be more positive than some and say the models aren't as bad as they could be and some describe them worse than they are, but then they get worse.. hints of HP moving in at T+240 get pushed back with the ECM looking to do the cold NW/N'erly all again after t+240.. 

 

Hopefully the ECM ensembles which are a bit better will be closer to the mark at that range, or indeed the GFS 06z.

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I'm so sick of this garbage, utter cloud fest drivel today and SHOCK horror after 23/24c has been shown for tommorow the last few days its now changed to slate grey skies and drizzle for tommorow to, obviously a washout Wednesday/Thursday and then more dross after that, there's never once a last minute upgrade it's always one downgrade after another, so sick of these featureless grey skies all summer every summer.

Rant over.

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Wouldn't normally post on the moaning thread as I generally don't like to be negative but I have to say the performance of the metoffice over the last few weeks has been abysmal. Longer range forecasts vague to the point of being useless, five dayers even worse and now today I've just seen Peter Gibbs saying there is a possibility of showers in the south but otherwise a dry and increasingly bright day - well here in Birmingham it's been raining all morning! It seems they can't even predict the weather when it's actually happening.  Yes I know weather forecasting is difficult but it's not as if these people are keen amateurs. This is a professional organisation with a huge amount of public funding behind it - if we all did our jobs as badly we wouldn't last long. Like I say sorry for the rant and I know JH is probably going to be on my case, but I'm trying to get the washing dry and getting increasingly frustrated.

try an e mail to Peter he is quite a nice bloke so I am sure he will reply and try to explain the problem?
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I know this is the wrong place, but having trawled various threads, this is the only one where I feel I am not intruding on a discussion too much lol. I have a question, what has happened to GP? Has he gone off to pastures new or left in disgust at the winter squabbling?

I really miss his very knowledgeable imput, and also where is his annual Summer forecast?

Cheers,

Karl

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