Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

To be honest, this summer has been no different then the last 6 really.

 

I just think that this time around we were more lucky that our settled spell happened in July rather then say April or October.

 

I agree to a point.  Each year usually has a good spell.  In 2007 the April was good, 2008 it was the May.  2010 June was a good month.  In 2011 April was record breaking and again in late September.  2012 was obviously poor, but we did have some spells in August.  July 2013 will obviously be remembered fondly,

 

Overall, a lot will depend on what happens during August and the early part of September to how 2013 will be remembered as a summer season as a whole.  The jury is still out!

 

One good month doesn't make a good summer - even if 2013 does prove to be the 4th warmest July on record. 

 

That said, if someone offered me one memorable summer month in 3 each year plus 2 average months, I'd snap their hand off!

Edited July 31, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Captain Shortwave]

Another day, another metoffice weather forecast which is completely wrong in the south east. I would like to believe that these people would spot when their models are constantly pushing things like troughs and rainfall too far east, but alas 

GFS on the other hand yet again spot on, barely a few sots of rain here and the temperature is 25C in London

Edited July 31, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Bottesford]

Well true we have had good spells in recent years but all outside of summer. This time things were indeed different - and how fantastic these 3 or so weeks have been.

Hours of rain today - a wet journey home I feel

[chris78]

To be honest, this summer has been no different then the last 6 really.

 

I just think that this time around we were more lucky that our settled spell happened in July rather then say April or October.

But the settled spell has come in July, we have had successive 30 plus days, so it has been a million miles from the last few summers, particularly last year

[linarite]

Another day, another metoffice weather forecast which is completely wrong in the south east. I would like to believe that these people would spot when their models are constantly pushing things like troughs and rainfall too far east, but alas 

GFS on the other hand yet again spot on, barely a few sots of rain here and the temperature is 25C in London

They say  "Since the issue of this Alert yesterday, the probability of heavy rain appears to have decreased, and if this trend continues, the Alert could yet be removed"

[mushymanrob]

But the settled spell has come in July, we have had successive 30 plus days, so it has been a million miles from the last few summers, particularly last year

 

eh?... not here matey! and certainly not successive...i dont care if somewhere in the uk got it, or it was 'hot' on those days if it wasnt here! where i am... ok imby but so what? heat 'over there' is useless to me!

[Thundery wintry showers]

It depends on where we place the goal posts- do we mean April-October, May-September, or the conventional meteorological summer (June-August)?  Using the June-August definition there has been a significant difference over much of the country, and the difference between the first 20 days of July has been particularly staggering:

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/201307.htm

 

England and Wales were at approximately 105mm of rain and 60 hours of sunshine by the 20th July last year- this year, the respective figures were 5mm and 220 hours!

Edited July 31, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[shedhead]

It depends on where we place the goal posts- do we mean April-October, May-September, or the conventional meteorological summer (June-August)?  Using the June-August definition there has been a significant difference over much of the country, and the difference between the first 20 days of July has been particularly staggering:

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/201307.htm

 

England and Wales were at approximately 105mm of rain and 60 hours of sunshine by the 20th July last year- this year, the respective figures were 5mm and 220 hours!

Good point TWS, but I also think the warm July has led to a slightly skewed view of things.

 

Summer to date has been much drier here overall, but June was often cool, even very cool at times. In fact I can remember the wife begging to have the heating turned back on several times, but in the end the third jumper did the job just as effectively...

 

I'm think this Summer so far would be viewed in a different light if it was now July 31st 1996 or 2007, but considering what has preceded it across the last 5 ort 6 years it's no wonder it's being lauded by so many... but as ever it's all relative.

[johnholmes]

 

eh?... not here matey! and certainly not successive...i dont care if somewhere in the uk got it, or it was 'hot' on those days if it wasnt here! where i am... ok imby but so what? heat 'over there' is useless to me!

come on mushy-even you must admit that this July is rather different to that in 2012 and possibly others recently?

[Jax]

Well the UK *as a whole* this year has IMHO been far better than last year at this time, could have done without the long drawn out winter that seemed to nick spring this year though.

[Bottesford]

June was definitely cool here - thanks to that unending NEly wind that seems to have lasted from mid January to mid July!

[Bristawl Si]

Good point TWS, but I also think the warm July has led to a slightly skewed view of things.Summer to date has been much drier here overall, but June was often cool, even very cool at times. In fact I can remember the wife begging to have the heating turned back on several times, but in the end the third jumper did the job just as effectively... I'm think this Summer so far would be viewed in a different light if it was now July 31st 1996 or 2007, but considering what has preceded it across the last 5 ort 6 years it's no wonder it's being lauded by so many... but as ever it's all relative.

Heating on! Jumpers! In June?Give it a rest.As you're fairly close to my neck of the woods, 1st 10 days of June were clear blue skies, pleasantly warm. Middle of June was cooler and wetter at times but not cold. End June was warm and dry.If August turns into a mixed bag but stays warm i'd say that overall this will be a decent Summer.

come on mushy-even you must admit that this July is rather different to that in 2012 and possibly others recently?

The guy's a serial whinger - must be a bundle of fun! Edited July 31, 2013 by Bristle boy

[johnholmes]

June was below normal, just, here, thanks to N Sea low cloud, July is the warmest here in 18 years of data, Mean+2.5C and Max a staggering +3.9C in my back garden, so hotter than either 1997 or 2006 in this little spot.

Edited July 31, 2013 by johnholmes

[Captain Shortwave]

They say  "Since the issue of this Alert yesterday, the probability of heavy rain appears to have decreased, and if this trend continues, the Alert could yet be removed"

The people up in Norwich obviously didn't get the memo 

[Bottesford]

Heating on! Jumpers! In June?Give it a rest.As you're fairly close to my neck of the woods, 1st 10 days of June were clear blue skies, pleasantly warm. Middle of June was cooler and wetter at times but not cold. End June was warm and dry.

 

We had heating on in early June - anytime the wind blows cold from the east the house chills rapidly - especially when low cloud blocks out all the morning sun. No morning sun = chilly house unless temps are above 20c outside.

Early June was often cloudy & had a cool wind blowing - much like the whole of spring. Only in late June did things improve.

[cheese]

I have the heating on whenever I feel chilly indoors. In fact, I was tempted to put it on today as there is certainly a chill in the air. However, I didn't, and I haven't had it on at all this month.

 

June was an average month here, but was duller than average.

Edited July 31, 2013 by cheese

[Tony27]

the bias on the mod thread is ridiculous and that's why i don't read it much any more, i checked the charts this morning and before i read the mod thread i already knew that frosty would totally ignore the ECM OP because it showed cool atlantic dross so he talks about the fax charts?? equally shedhead has a total cool bias and for the past two weeks he has been talking about the atlantic taking over with no more hot weather on the way, when in fact last week and last weekend it was 25c or above here and in many other places in england, and now tommorow and friday looks hot again, he keeps trying to imply that this summer hasn't been that good so far the glum attitude is boring me to death, at least when i was moaning back in june i had good reason too as the weather was cack in the south and east but i got slated for it, i have been very happy with the weather in july albeit it was a bit too hot at times esp at night, i hope august is good too

Edited July 31, 2013 by Tony27

[Costa Del Fal]

June was fantastic in the west - ok it was never hot but very pleasant and plenty of sun at times so yes Easterners, it may not have been great in your back yards but for us in the west, this has been the sunniest and warmest summer in a long time and yes its much different to the last few summers.

[Bottesford]

I have the heating on whenever I feel chilly indoors. In fact, I was tempted to put it on today as there is certainly a chill in the air. However, I didn't, and I haven't had it on at all this month.

 

June was an average month here, but was duller than average.

 

Crikey even I'm not thinking of putting the heating on! But then my dinner has warmed the place to 21.5c. Raining again though

[cheese]

June was fantastic in the west - ok it was never hot but very pleasant and plenty of sun at times so yes Easterners, it may not have been great in your back yards but for us in the west, this has been the sunniest and warmest summer in a long time and yes its much different to the last few summers.

Good for you - but expect those in the east not to care how sunny it has been in the west (no offence intended).

 

It's been very warm here, certainly will be one of our warmest months on record (avg. max 24.6C looking likely), but not very sunny unfortunately. The biggest culprit isn't low cloud but convective cloud .Seems like a convergence line set up across the Pennines most afternoons, causing cloud development.

Edited July 31, 2013 by cheese

[I Cumbria Marra I]

June was pretty much bang on average here, some warmish sunny days and some cool cloudy windy days, the july heatwave lasted about 2 n half week, its been id say slightly above average for the past week or so and totally agree with Tony about the bias in the on model thread, i think some people just try to annoy others by exaggerating the heat or the cold.

[cheese]

Crikey even I'm not thinking of putting the heating on! But then my dinner has warmed the place to 21.5c. Raining again though

I just hate being cold indoors. Hate it, hate it, hate it. But then I hate being too warm indoors. It's hard to get a perfect middle-ground.

[phil nw.]

the bias on the mod thread is ridiculous and that's why i don't read it much any more, i checked the charts this morning and before i read the mod thread i already knew that frosty would totally ignore the ECM OP because it showed cool atlantic dross so he talks about the fax charts?? equally shedhead has a total cool bias and for the past two weeks he has been talking about the atlantic taking over with no more hot weather on the way, when in fact last week and last weekend it was 25c or above here and in many other places in england, and now tommorow and friday looks hot again, he keeps trying to imply that this summer hasn't been that good so far the glum attitude is boring me to death, at least when i was moaning back in june i had good reason too as the weather was cack in the south and east but i got slated for it, i have been very happy with the weather in july albeit it was a bit too hot at times esp at night, i hope august is good too

Part of the dubious joys of model discussion i am afraid.

People will always have different slants on the charts and the advice is not to let it annoy you rather post your own views supported by some data.

Certainly not worth falling out over -at the end of the day we are all here to talk about our common interest-weather- and we should try and get on and get enjoyment out of it..

[J10]

June was fantastic in the west - ok it was never hot but very pleasant and plenty of sun at times so yes Easterners, it may not have been great in your back yards but for us in the west, this has been the sunniest and warmest summer in a long time and yes its much different to the last few summers.

 

Indeed. Locally June was sunny around 10-15% above average, again with rainfall around half normal. Temps were slighlty below normal but it felt pleasent in the sunshine.

 

Depending on August, this summer will be at worst a decent one but possibly a very good one.

Edited July 31, 2013 by Jackone

[mushymanrob]

It depends on where we place the goal posts- do we mean April-October, May-September, or the conventional meteorological summer (June-August)?  Using the June-August definition there has been a significant difference over much of the country, and the difference between the first 20 days of July has been particularly staggering:

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/201307.htm

 

England and Wales were at approximately 105mm of rain and 60 hours of sunshine by the 20th July last year- this year, the respective figures were 5mm and 220 hours!

 

i dont get the graphs... whats the difference between july 13 and the last 30 days (which was july 13).. what am i missing?

 

come on mushy-even you must admit that this July is rather different to that in 2012 and possibly others recently?

 

didnt say otherwise john, i was pointing out that not everyone, in fact id suggest the majority, didnt get 30 successive days of 'good' weather.  of course july 13 has been the best july for 7 years, but some were lucky enough to have it better then others, who, like me had that dratted north sea stratus spoiling things.

 

We had heating on in early June - anytime the wind blows cold from the east the house chills rapidly - especially when low cloud blocks out all the morning sun. No morning sun = chilly house unless temps are above 20c outside.

Early June was often cloudy & had a cool wind blowing - much like the whole of spring. Only in late June did things improve.

 

yep we had the heating on too in june, same reasons (not surprising living quite close) that dratted north sea breezes.