Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....

[Purga]

I would take frigid or warm to be honest. This is a weak drizzly front/east low cloud drizzle fest

At this point I would just nuke the limpet trough and have the Azores high build northwards. Frankly even the Azores high can't breach this dreadful output, as Ian Brown rightly says.

Then just keep the faith that the pattern will edge south. It's not really going to go much north and even if it did that would end us up in mediocre bilge - it's very close and marginal and I think will change subtly from day to day..

Anyway Gavin & Mushy will get plenty of rain and drizzle to sait their appetites if 240hr ECM verifies

Edited March 17, 2013 by Purga

[rory o gorman]

better run from the ecm , slowly eroding the heights to the north following the gfs mean tread , hopefully will progress over the next few days .

[Argyle1980]

Won't be long till we can skip this cold rain and move on to seeing something a little like this.

[Boro Snow]

Won't be long till we can skip this cold rain and move on to seeing something a little like this.

it might be longer than you think

[Frank Trough]

It most certainly would be typically springlike, wouldn't it? not necessarily nice, but spring. Nothing more, nothing less.

Plus of course none of it's actually happened yet and there is plenty of scope for things to change to a colder patter again - but that would still be spring as well.

ECM follows on from this 0z this evening.

a much more average looking spring pattern.

[Mr Frost]

The latest Met office forecast for my region...

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Very cold with further snow showers on Tuesday, prolonged at first with strong easterly winds and drifting snow. Becoming drier with some sun mid-week, winds easing, but severe frosts inland.

Issued at: 1600 on Sun 17 Mar 2013

It really is amazing to be reading this on March 17 2013! It would be more suited to mid Winter.

I look forward to some warm, dry and sunny weather in April...hopefully!

Edited March 17, 2013 by Mr Frost

[Derecho]

Hope the UKMO is correct with this particular pattern but I've got a bad feeling ECM and GFS are on the right path.

ECM is a truly horrible run that would see bucket loads of rain while still feeling cold, flooding would be a concern with stalling fronts, somewhat reminiscent of the second half of last December.

Yup some March weather like 2012 would be nice but this is anything but...How anyone can find that ECM run appealing is beyond me,

Edited March 17, 2013 by Quicksilver1989

[Snowman.]

better run from the ecm , slowly eroding the heights to the north following the gfs mean tread , hopefully will progress over the next few days .

All doom and gloom how that fills me with joy.

[Captain Shortwave]

why isn't it? what do you think spring should be like in late march? like last year and nothing else?

It most certainly would be typically springlike, wouldn't it? not necessarily nice, but spring. Nothing more, nothing less.

Plus of course none of it's actually happened yet and there is plenty of scope for things to change to a colder patter again - but that would still be spring as well.

ECM follows on from this 0z this evening.

a much more average looking spring pattern.

Spring..... reminds me of autumn to be honest. Dull, wet and cold, with occasional wind.

Could get more positivity on budget day.

Edited March 17, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[BlueHedgehog074]

I think one problem about the 12Z ECMWF update is that the Low Pressure system approaching from the West at 96 hours is a bit too 'orb' shaped, and this remains the case for 120 hours and (most especially) 144 hours as well.

The ball shaped Low at 144 hours here becomes rather circular here:

I think ideally, we really need to see more pressure being put onto that Low Pressure system from the high to the North to force the Low to become as flat as a pancake and inject some Low Pressure energy Eastwards/South-Eastwards under that block. This should then help the milder South-Easterly/Southerly flow to become a cooler/colder Easterly flow to increase the chances of a more snowier breakdown.

I remember reading a comment from nick sussex about the mayhem football shaped Lows can cause in regards to cold weather potential. (Edit: although I've noticed Purga mentioning a similar aspect about this as well earlier on in this thread).

It is indeed great news, however, if you are after something a little milder, although more runs will be needed to see whether we will get enough energy sent Eastwards under the block to help maintain cold conditions for all (or most) of us, or whether the Low(s) to out West ends up stalling their with a possible risk of warmer weather being brought in from the South or South-West. Northern areas do, at least, look as though they could still hang onto colder conditions - the ECMWF never really show those milder uppers quite reaching far Northern areas with these parts generally being on the colder side of the Low Pressure system(s).

It will be interesting to see what the UKMO does on it's next run. Will the ECMWF force the UKMO to back down its colder channel Low undercutting potential? Or will the ECMWF give up its less cold solution? Personally, I think it may go in UKMO's direction (and, in a way, the GFS's direction) as it is possible the ECMWF may be under-estimating the Low disruption potential from the West.

Edited March 17, 2013 by DiagonalRedLine

[Argyle1980]

it might be longer than you think

well lets hope not. but i feel we have a good couple of wet months to come before we see anything like that.

[rory o gorman]

All doom and gloom how that fills me with joy.

thats just what march has been , so cold and gloomy ,that one cant even go for a walk without a winter coat , I for one want a to feel a warm breeze and see a few convective spring setups soon and then a proper summer come may/june

[LomondSnowstorm]

why isn't it? what do you think spring should be like in late march? like last year and nothing else?

It most certainly would be typically springlike, wouldn't it? not necessarily nice, but spring. Nothing more, nothing less.

Plus of course none of it's actually happened yet and there is plenty of scope for things to change to a colder patter again - but that would still be spring as well.

ECM follows on from this 0z this evening.

a much more average looking spring pattern.

I'm not sure it is a typical spring like pattern either way to be honest. Spring tends to be stereotypically dominated either by HP or by very mobile 'sunshine and showers' type regimes along with quick switch arounds from cold to mild. Having a trough static in our vicinity for days on end is perhaps more typical of winter (or of the last few summers).

[Chris K]

It looks interesting for north & north eastern areas in particular. I get the feeling we're heading for a 'half way' solution again. I'm not in a position to back this up, but I don't think areas in the SW such as me will not see much, if any snow at lower ground. Perhaps initially?

I'm more than happy to be shown otherwise and look forward to more interesting model watching over the coming days.

[frosty ground]

Seems 144 charts are no longer FI and impossible now the ecm is out lol

[Captain Shortwave]

thats just what march has been , so cold and gloomy ,that one cant even go for a walk without a winter coat , I for one want a to feel a warm breeze and see a few convective spring setups soon and then a proper summer come may/june

I agree on your last point. Though the previous easterly and one during next week look like being shower based with sunshine for some. This South Easterly will be cool and feel cold with lots of rain for the South West and generally leaving the rest of the UK under gloomy skies. If high pressure remains to the north then mild weather won't come unless that high is positioned favourable (over Canada to allow the jet to shift north over us). Frankly if the ECM verified up to day 7, I would only see the continuation of Cool South-Easterlies for the foreseeable as the breakdown of height to north is way too quick - note ECM has been calling the removal of heights to the north from T192 for the last 4 days or so and it keeps getting put back.

[-uksnow-]

Well I don't know if this bears any reference to the shaping of the low come Friday but it doesn't look to be the same shape as the UKMO 12z output today! To be expected I guess

Edited March 17, 2013 by -uksnow-

[Summer Sun]

Well I don't know if this bears any reference to the shaping of the low come Friday but it doesn't look to be the same shape as the UKMO 12z output today! To be expected I guess

It looks to be more in line with ECM rather than there own model tonight

[Chris K]

Well, just seen the countryfile weather forecast where Matt taylor spoke of the possibilty of significant snow in the southwest come friday.

I haven't watched it yet. Tend to catch up later tonight. I'll be keeping a close eye on developments during the week then. Like I said in my previous post it was just a feeling and perhaps doesn't belong in this thread, but its just the way it seems to have been a lot this winter with the models moving towards each other until agreement 'half way' in between (but with certain models perhaps being closer to the mark than the other etc)

[shotski]

It looks to be more in line with ECM rather than there own model tonight

That ECM charts shows a south to south e'ly flow for the uk ? nothing like what is on the forecast map IMHO

[chionomaniac]

I have had to delete some posts.

Please remember to respect others and the fact that they may not be wanting the same outcome as yourselves - and that goes for both sides of the coin.

Thanks

Edited March 17, 2013 by chionomaniac

[Summer Sun]

That ECM charts shows a south to south e'ly flow for the uk ? nothing like what is on the forecast map IMHO

True GFS could be the closest on further examination

A lot depends on what time that BBC graphic was for as well all it said was Friday

[nicknacknoo]

Definitely more rugby ball shaped..... but we won't mention that!!!!!!!!!!

[NickR]

It most certainly would be typically springlike, wouldn't it? not necessarily nice, but spring. Nothing more, nothing less.

Plus of course none of it's actually happened yet and there is plenty of scope for things to change to a colder patter again - but that would still be spring as well.

ECM follows on from this 0z this evening.

a much more average looking spring pattern.

That's twice now. What is it with this pedantry? It's pretty obvious what people mean by" Springlike" - it refers to certain pleasant weather conditions. Of course spring can be cold or mild, dry or wet, or white... but that's not what "springlike" means in common parlance. Ridiculous nitpicking.

[Gibby]

Good evening folks. here is the evening look at the 12z outputs from the big three namely GFS, UKMO and ECM for today Sunday March 17th 2013.

All models show a similar pattern through this week and it's not until the weekend when small but subtle differences in the output occur. The complex structure of Low pressure over and around the UK continues until midweek with areas of rain and wintry showers occurring in various if local places over the coming days. Some of the precipitation may be heavy at times and in the cold air this will bring snow levels down to low levels occasionally though with any notable lying snow mostly over the hills as usual. By Thursday the UK will lie between two Low pressure areas and there may be a drier phase for a time before late in the week a deep Low pressure to the SW spins a trough up towards the SW bringing rain and a cold SE breeze by Friday here while areas further North and East probably stay drier but with a strong and cold wind to end the week.

GFS then fills the Low over the weekend as it slides East into the English Channel. There would be a strong and cold East wind blowing over many areas with rain over the South turning to snow on it's Northern flank at times. Through FI the operational maintains the cold spell right up to Easter with cold East then NE winds delivering outbreaks of rain with sleet and snow over the hills almost anywhere with frost at night maintained under clear skies. Over Easter itself the model shows marginally milder weather possible as winds tilt more towards the South but it will remain far from settled with rain at times in strong winds from the South or SE.

The GFS Ensembles show the operational up and down like a yo yo in the South with other options being equally changeable over the period. The South sees things recovering nearer to normal more quickly than in the North with the cold weather hanging on here up to Easter. All areas being affected by Low pressure from mot members can expect frequent bouts of wet weather in the coming two weeks.

The Jet Stream shows little meaningful sign of moving north of the UK over the coming week or so which is where we would like it to be to give the UK a better chance of fine Spring weather. instead we have to continue to put up with it undulating north and then South in a position close to Spain and North Africa.

UKMO for the start of next weekend shows Low pressure close to SW England and High pressure to the North with a cold and biting ESE flow over all areas. Rain will certainly be falling over the South and SW of England and with these synoptics and with the temperature of the air being cold there is every chance that this will engage with it to cause some snowfall in places.

ECM is a little less wintry with the orientation of the Low pressure to the West better for allowing milder air to be pushed North into at least Southern Britain though rainfall will still be plentiful with the proximity of Low pressure close by. Further North any migration towards milder air will be painfully slow with the risk of further wintry precipitation at times at least over the higher ground in strong and cold SE winds here.

In Summary the doom and gloom from the models continue with only a few charts that offer us any chance of milder weather down here in the South late this week and over the weekend from ECM. UKMO though has turned in a cold Day 6 chart for next Saturday with rain and sleet in what looks to be a very unpleasant day with little in the offing likely in the days that follow. GFS is also cold right out to and including Easter though the ensembles are very mixed. Nowhere in any charts I have seen tonight does High pressure sit in a location that can offer us a chance to move into Spring so patience is going to have to be required for a while yet I'm afraid.