Spring Model Discussion 18Z 6/3/13 onwards....

[mountain shadow]

Thames streamer and a half..

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130306/18/96/ukprec.png

Wouldn't think much of my chances of getting to work on Monday morning in some eastern and south eastern parts.

Edited March 6, 2013 by mountain shadow

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013030618/gfs-0-102.png?18

Chart of the winter / Spring for me & for most of England!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1082.gif -13/-14c uppers, perfect flow allignment, -5c dewpoints, 20c gradient & sub 528 heights.

Perfect for heavy convective snowfall across england.

S

[Cloud 10]

Met office seem to go with the ukmo raw output on the latest 120 hrs fax.

fax 120 hrs.. ukmo 120 hrs..

[bradymk]

Just as chio starts the spring thread, I would have to say that the current model output is simply amazing if you are a coldie, by far the best of the winter and trust me, it does not get much better than the charts currently at +96 and +120, even in peak winter let alone March!! It is a pretty rare event we have here folks. Widespread -10 clearing the whole of the UK and Ireland with -12c for many. For many in Eastern areas, it could be brutally cold Monday with sub zero maxima possible under frequent snow showers. Anyway, that aside, GFS 18z brings in cold sooner again, Sunday according to that. I wonder if I will see some proper snow finally here this winter? Have only managed 3 hours of slush so any snow from this spell would be a good way to end winter for me as its been a poor winter here. I was not really hoping for cold now with spring upon us and some spring sunshine would be lovely but you can not resist the cold and snow when the synoptics are this good!

Ps. One thing i would like to know Ian if your around is why aren't the UKMO modifying the fax when there outlook goes against there raw model?

Edited March 6, 2013 by bradythemole

[chionomaniac]

http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-102.png?18

Chart of the winter / Spring for me & for most of England!

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1082.gif -13/-14c uppers, perfect flow allignment, -5c dewpoints, 20c gradient & sub 528 heights.

Perfect for heavy convective snowfall across england.

S

Spring Ice days are rare beasts indeed due to the strength of the sun, but next Monday we could just see one widespread.

[Ian Brown]

Met office seem to go with the ukmo raw output on the latest 120 hrs fax.

fax 120 hrs.. ukmo 120 hrs..

Yes, that supports the UKMO run, and would only see PPN in the far South.

[SMU]

Spring Ice days are rare beasts indeed due to the strength of the sun, but next Monday we could just see one widespread.

indeed- GFS is trying its hardest

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1144.gif

-1c max all the way down to devon....

S

[johnholmes]

Met office seem to go with the ukmo raw output on the latest 120 hrs fax.

fax 120 hrs.. ukmo 120 hrs..

looks perfectly okay to me. What should it show in your view?

[CWT2012]

Thames streamer and a half..

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130306/18/96/ukprec.png

Wouldn't think much of my chances of getting to work on Monday morning in some eastern and south eastern parts.

The army would be on standby if that chart verifies

Chart of the winter

[snowice]

Met office seem to go with the ukmo raw output on the latest 120 hrs fax.

fax 120 hrs.. ukmo 120 hrs..

A bit premature i feel ,not the first time they have done this only to change 24hrs later!gfs and ecm going the other way its to ukmo progressive?

[Derecho]

indeed- GFS is trying its hardest

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1144.gif

-1c max all the way down to devon....

S

Yup and dropping a bit in the snow showers to!

Stunning output again tonight, Im still TRYING to contain my excitement (the charts for here are near perfection) but given I will wait for the Meto to follow as well given the Feb 09 and Jan 05 collapses, come Friday morning if this is still showing then I think we will enter the most historic March cold spell for a long time!

[Ian Brown]

looks perfectly okay to me. What should it show in your view?

ECM/GFS go for a convective easterly - that is not a convective easterly and would bring something more like the last easterly spell last month.

[WhiteFox]

indeed- GFS is trying its hardest

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1144.gif

-1c max all the way down to devon....

S

We shall see! Even rarer considering we're heading for mid-march. However, the models have consistently underestimated temperatures for each cold spell this winter, particularly at night (although all have featured largely cloudy conditions) so I'm largely sceptical of the GFS forecast temps.

[CWT2012]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013030618/gfs-0-102.png?18

Chart of the winter / Spring for me & for most of England!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1082.gif -13/-14c uppers, perfect flow allignment, -5c dewpoints, 20c gradient & sub 528 heights.

Perfect for heavy convective snowfall across england.

S

Agree Steve, drooling over that one, that would result in over a foot of snow across much of mainland Britain

Truly epic stuff

[bryan629]

there seems to be a lot of westward correctioning on this run so far

[Ian Brown]

Agree Steve, drooling over that one, that would result in over a foot of snow across much of mainland Britain

Truly epic stuff

No it would not. Are you Yamkin reinvented ?

It could result in considerably snowfalls across Eastern and Southern England.

[bradymk]

indeed- GFS is trying its hardest

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1144.gif

-1c max all the way down to devon....

S

quick question Steve, firstly that chart highlights how extreme the current synoptics are for +96 to +120 especially given the time of year. But just wondering would 15z be the "warmest" part of the day now or would the temp at 12z be the max for the day?

looks perfectly okay to me. What should it show in your view?

I would expect after seeing Ian's post earlier about the MetO thinking and about them dismissing there raw model, together with the MetO 5-16 day that they would modify the fax to look something like the ECM. It has hardly changed from Raw UKMO. Interesting to hear Ian's take on this? Thanks

Edited March 6, 2013 by bradythemole

[CWT2012]

No it would not. Are you Yamkin reinvented ?

It could result in considerably snowfalls across Eastern and Southern England.

The chart mountain shadow posted showed a Thames streamer with the shower train stretching all the way back to Holland/Germany, with the uppers forecast I can see astonishing depths, dare I say it, equalling or even topping Feb 09

[ITSY]

another question for SM, surely the only *heavy* snow would be across the southern half of the UK as the Thames streamer develops...Or would the streamer simply worsen already heavy snow convection for the remaining majority? Just a little confused how other areas (northern England, for example) could get the very heavy snow you mention...

Edited March 6, 2013 by ITSY

[fergieweather]

quick question Steve, firstly that chart highlights how extreme the current synoptics are for +96 to +120 especially given the time of year. But just wondering would 15z be the "warmest" part of the day now or would the temp at 12z be the max for the day?

I would expect after seeing Ian's post earlier about the MetO thinking and about them dismissing there raw model, together with the MetO 5-16 day that they would modify the fax to look something like the ECM. It has hardly changed from Raw UKMO. Interesting to hear Ian's take on this? Thanks

Wasn't dismissed: was modified. Continuity in their GM out to T+84 currently good, they say. However, I haven't seen their thoughts on 12z yet beyond the 2-3d period so can't offer further clarification on current rationale.

[Cloud 10]

looks perfectly okay to me. What should it show in your view?

Based on the model output available i would have put the center of the high a bit

further North -West,more towards the ecm mean.

That doesn't say its wrong though!

[Birkhill saints]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/andrews/europe-cold-snow-to-follow-taste-of-spring/7528632

View from accu...

[NickR]

The chart mountain shadow posted showed a Thames streamer with the shower train stretching all the way back to Holland/Germany, with the uppers forecast I can see astonishing depths, dare I say it, equalling or even topping Feb 09

"astonishing depths", "the army", "COBRA"... seriously, are you just on one massive ramper-trip?

Seriously, a bit of measure might not be a bad thing! LOL

[Chris K]

"astonishing depths", "the army", "COBRA"... seriously, are you just on one massive ramper-trip?

Seriously, a bit of measure might not be a bad thing! LOL

Yes - I think it can be very misleading actually for any newcomers who aren't used to the more...'interesting' ramping posts that go on. I'm not saying its intentional but some realism needs to be injected here.

Exciting times ahead? - Yes its looking likely for many with bitter cold air and also perhaps some snow lovers being satisfied. Maybe certain areas being hit harder than others but I simply couldnt judge until within a day or two when chances of any PPN become clearer.

Lockdown Britain incoming? No...I'll believe it when I see it. Although then again, most of the country seems to lockdown only under 2 inches of the white stuff...

Don't get me wrong - the model runs we are seeing are fantastic for March! As long as it isn't another period of grey skies I'm happy with whatever I get.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Chris K

[Panayiotis]

another question for SM, surely the only *heavy* snow would be across the southern half of the UK as the Thames streamer develops...Or would the streamer simply worsen already heavy snow convection for the remaining majority? Just a little confused how other areas (northern England, for example) could get the very heavy snow you mention...

Snow showers likely to feed off the North Sea by convection, thats where I could see the possibility of heavy snow showers for the north.

http://www.accuweath...-spring/7528632

View from accu...

It seems as though, they are going with the GFS solution of the high sinking, so cold would filter out if the high edges closer to us.. Edited March 6, 2013 by Panayiotis