Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

[mcweather]

Latest tweet from Ian F'

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

I spy forecast 'headaches' developing later nxt week with potential return of W Country snow. Luckily I'm off then so won't be MY headache!

[phil nw.]

Yes it`s a finely balance setup.

If the block goes further north as it retrogresses then the warmer air would infiltrate from the south quite quickly as the Atlantic encroaches.On the other hand too far south and the High cuts off the initial easterly flow.

As it is on this 12z run on both UK and GFS it`s about the best it could be for the initial cold coming west and then for holding back the Atlantic enough for a possible battleground.

I don`t think anyone should be too downbeat over fine details as things are still evolving but the basic pattern is a cold one with possibilities of some snow-firstly from the east and then from the south west.

We can all refer to even colder setups from the past but this is none too shabby for late in the season.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The GFS is FAR FAR ro fast tonight with its solution, it piles up the energy to the SW & pushes through.

The UKMO & GEM are in tandem tonight with PERFECT positioning of lows to force the cold over the UK- The GEM just edging the UKMo by 200 miles north-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013021512/gem-0-138.png?12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013021512/UW144-21.GIF?15-17

Remember my 4 ingredients this morning-

Iberian Energy, Southerly jet, High pressure location, upper air cold pool-

GEM has all 4, UKMO has 3 - just lacking the depth to the upper air cold pool-

However everything is perfectly alligned energy wise for the high to lift a little a energy piles in from the SW, the SE ( from iberia ) & the NE over Scandi.

Very confident of this signal now for very cold air at day 5- with surface temps for england sub 2c on the UKMo 120- but more particular 144.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013021512/gem-0-144.png?12 GEM CLASSIC

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013021512/navgemnh-0-156.png?15-17 NAVGEM Awsome

Just would have preferred the UKMO to be the best--- never mind.

discount the GFS tonight- its WAYYYYY to fast.

S

Yes the gem is amazing. But I think the UKMO next chart would be amazing too , with the Iberia low moving northeast on the last two frames of the UKMO , sets us up perfectly for a classic snowy spell

Edited February 15, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Ian Brown]

Latest tweet from Ian F'

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

I spy forecast 'headaches' developing later nxt week with potential return of W Country snow. Luckily I'm off then so won't be MY headache!

Interesting, may be tongue in cheek or maybe he is noting the GFS as a possibility.

[bluearmy]

From what I could make out of Ians posts yesterday, NAVGEM is rated by the MO currently over the GFS - The fact it's one of the first operational models to take into account Stratospheric temperatures, I think we need to keep an eye on it

If he said that, i imagine he was teasing. its only just been released so doubt there is too much statistically to go on. as far as strat temps go, all the decent models use strat temps. maybe nogaps didnt. i really wouldnt be quoting navgem till we see how it does. looking at the 12z run today, it seems a bit 'keen'.

[mcweather]

Interesting, may be tongue in cheek or maybe he is noting the GFS as a possibility.

Or Maybe he's seen what MOGREPS shows beyond 144!!

[SMU]

Yes the gem is amazing. But I think the UKMO next chart would be amazing too , with the Iberia low moving northeast on the last two frames of the UKMO , sets us up perfectly for a classic snowy spell

Yes I would guess the UKMO would have a tighter squeeze of Easterlies but every so slightly SE not NE, the energy from Iberia & the SW approaches would drive the pattern before the low coming out of the pole- the pole low is also well east so rather than cut through the block it will push the eastern end down slightly- supporting the Se flow.

Feb 1991 was SE as well just in case people had forgotton

S

[fergieweather]

From what I could make out of Ians posts yesterday, NAVGEM is rated by the MO currently over the GFS - The fact it's one of the first operational models to take into account Stratospheric temperatures, I think we need to keep an eye on it

Errr - NO.... I've never said anything of the sort! UKMO have never cited NOGAPS/NAVGEM in any analysis I've ever seen!!

[Ian Brown]

Yes the gem is amazing. But I think the UKMO next chart would be amazing too , with the Iberia low moving northeast on the last two frames of the UKMO , sets us up perfectly for a classic snowy spell

I just don't know where the UKMO would go from T144 having seen it on wetter and I don't think anyone could be confident if we could see a T168. Ian ?

[fergieweather]

I just don't know where the UKMO would go from T144 having seen it on wetter and I don't think anyone could be confident if we could see a T168. Ian ?

All I can say is that UKMO discussed the situation into end of next week with me earlier. At that stage we were watching the 12z GFS roll-out actually during the conversation. Much to play for but it's clearly a focal-point now for attention / potential. We shall see. Long way to go....

[The Northern Ramper]

Errr - NO.... I've never said anything of the sort! UKMO have never cited NOGAPS/NAVGEM in any analysis I've ever seen!!

Roughly translated they don't like cannon fodder

[Cheshire Freeze]

All I can say is that UKMO discussed the situation into end of next week with me earlier. At that stage we were watching the 12z GFS roll-out actually during the conversation. Much to play for but it's clearly a focal-point now for attention / potential. We shall see. Long way to go....

Haha I have images of them all sat round a computer with a cup of tea, clicking on Netweather and going straight to the GFS page. Maybe they do what I do sometimes and watch every frame trickle out, occassionally clicking the 'prev' tab to monitor any slight adjustments since the last run

''Hey Dave, look at this. It's gone for the undercut at 144''

''Hang on Stu, just finishing off my digestive''

Edited February 15, 2013 by CreweCold

[fergieweather]

Haha I have images of them all sat round a computer with a cup of tea, clicking on Netweather and going straight to the GFS page. Maybe they do what I do sometimes and watch every frame trickle out, occassionally clicking the 'prev' tab to monitor any slight adjustments since the last run

''Hey Dave, look at this. It's gone for the undercut at 144''

''Hang on Stu, just finishing off my digestive''

Ha! They have a very snazzy way on their system of showing all the GFS frames in comparison with UKMO-GM, EC and ARPEGE. Makes cross-referencing more simple.

[mushymanrob]

The models must truly be on to something significant if it has made both mushymanrob and WIB to come back and post on here!

hey dont cite my return as a result of 'something significant' happening, the only significant event is the approach of spring, and my return from "hidernation" ...where i hide from the cold ramping.

As GFS FI shows, we need to try and manouvre away from a west based -NAO, otherwise we'll be having a taste of spring before Feb is out!

...and just how can "we manouvre " away from a west based -nao? can we control the weather now?

still cant see it.... the gfs 12z not only is plausable, but potentially shortens any wintryness. with winds from the southeastern quadrant weds-sat im still expecting cold, dry, overcast, raw winds. any wintriness will be short lived as the atlantic 'wins' the battle.

[The Northern Ramper]

Ha! They have a very snazzy way on their system of showing all the GFS frames in comparison with UKMO-GM, EC and ARPEGE. Makes cross-referencing more simple.

They should do open days

[Paul]

They should do open days

Miles off topic, but

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/open-days

[legritter]

Its fantastic having all these weather modells compared to say charts from local met office back in the 70s and 80s that i had posted to me and by then completely out of date and big changes every time the post turned up .we have come along way in the last 30yrs or so but as we all know its whats around that next corner which i personally put at 144 hrs .to have say the met office put public 168 and 192 hr charts would just about make me hide behind the bookcase and peep at the charts past 144hrs and get the dog to wag its tail if they were good .im very confident on a cold easterly with eventually some snow ,but it is nice to dream a little which according to some research yrs ago people that live for snow are dreamers ,anyhow as i said earlier just a fair run from ECM and co and i will be happy , stella runs seem to go pear shape .heres to a classic

[PB22]

hey dont cite my return as a result of 'something significant' happening, the only significant event is the approach of spring, and my return from "hidernation" ...where i hide from the cold ramping.

...and just how can "we manouvre " away from a west based -nao? can we control the weather now?

still cant see it.... the gfs 12z not only is plausable, but potentially shortens any wintryness. with winds from the southeastern quadrant weds-sat im still expecting cold, dry, overcast, raw winds. any wintriness will be short lived as the atlantic 'wins' the battle.

I don't see the Atlantic winning the battle for a long time yet Mushy. Even the GFS has it blocked and cold on the ensemble mean at T+240 tonight:

I think those of us looking for an early spring are going to be left disappointed. The outlook is cold for the foreseeable future.

[bluearmy]

I don't see the Atlantic winning the battle for a long time yet Mushy. Even the GFS has it blocked and cold on the ensemble mean at T+240 tonight: http://modeles.meteo...21-1-240.png?12

I think those of us looking for an early spring are going to be left disappointed. The outlook is cold for the foreseeable future.

You may well be right paul but having been a glass half full chap for the whole winter, i now find myself expecting the low res gfs pattern to become the post cold spell solution. as i said earlier, probably a couple days too quick but the end of feb and into march does not see me expecting wintry conditions to continue.

[Ian Brown]

hey dont cite my return as a result of 'something significant' happening, the only significant event is the approach of spring, and my return from "hidernation" ...where i hide from the cold ramping.

...and just how can "we manouvre " away from a west based -nao? can we control the weather now?

still cant see it.... the gfs 12z not only is plausable, but potentially shortens any wintryness. with winds from the southeastern quadrant weds-sat im still expecting cold, dry, overcast, raw winds. any wintriness will be short lived as the atlantic 'wins' the battle.

It's going to be hard for the Atlantic to win easily with the core of heights to the North or North East.

You forgot to update your sig - it needs to read Summers 07-12 ones to forget !

[mushymanrob]

I don't see the Atlantic winning the battle for a long time yet Mushy. Even the GFS has it blocked and cold on the ensemble mean at T+240 tonight: http://modeles.meteo...21-1-240.png?12

I think those of us looking for an early spring are going to be left disappointed. The outlook is cold for the foreseeable future.

sadly (for me at least) your likely to be correct, but i was commenting on 1 gfs run which might become something like reality, but prob not.

[mushymanrob]

It's going to be hard for the Atlantic to win easily with the core of heights to the North or North East.

You forgot to update your sig - it needs to read Summers 07-12 ones to forget !

maybe, but i see a strong possibility of a march 69 style , which was very cold, dull, breezy, . those looking for or expecting a proper snowfall are as likely to be as dissappointed as those of us looking towards spring.

[Frosty.]

At least we don't have this to worry about this time around, unlike in January when it was touch and go for a while whether the cold air would win, this time it's an easy cold victory with no atlantic threat. We just have a few more mildish days, mildest in the north, then turning colder from early next week as winds become SEly and then probably Ely with frosts becoming widespread and wintry showers spreading to e and se coasts, only the south would see the ely if the ukmo 12z verified, most of the uk if the gfs 12z did, wonder what the ecm 12z thinks...

[nick sussex]

The GFS is FAR FAR to fast tonight with its solution, it piles up the energy to the SW & pushes through.

The UKMO & GEM are in tandem tonight with PERFECT positioning of lows to force the cold over the UK- The GEM just edging the UKMo by 200 miles north-

http://modeles.meteo...em-0-138.png?12

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?15-17

Remember my 4 ingredients this morning-

Iberian Energy, Southerly jet, High pressure location, upper air cold pool-

GEM has all 4, UKMO has 3 - just lacking the depth to the upper air cold pool-

However everything is perfectly alligned energy wise for the high to lift a little a energy piles in from the SW, the SE ( from iberia ) & the NE over Scandi.

Very confident of this signal now for very cold air at day 5- with surface temps for england sub 2c on the UKMo 120- but more particular 144.

http://modeles.meteo...em-0-144.png?12 GEM CLASSIC

http://modeles.meteo...0-156.png?15-17 NAVGEM Awsome

Just would have preferred the UKMO to be the best--- never mind.

discount the GFS tonight- its WAYYYYY to fast.

S

If you like the GEM 144hrs how about the 168hrs!

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=eur&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=168

The 12hrs goes upto 240hrs on the main site together with a lot of other great info.

http://meteocentre.com/home_e.html

[chris55]

Excellent agreement between the GFS 12z mean and the 00Z ECM mean, so it looks like we have a solid easterly flow in the making, how cold and what influence attacks from the south west, or convective potential from the east, remains to be seen. But overall a great synoptic pattern for the end of winter.

GFS 12z Mean

ECM 00z mean,

It will be interesting to see where the ECM 12z goes.