Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards

[Tom Quintavalle]

I know its the 06Z but my word what is going on here.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1381.png

Maybe I should keep an open mind for the following week because the 06Z is such a massive change at such an early timeframe.

Dave,

And its the 06z, with its tendecy to push everything further east! But it is the 06z of course.

The resulting movement SW of the whole pattern has also edged our Scandy High a little further SW too.

But lets wait and see what the 12zs show, hope not another false dawn.

Regards,

Tom

[nick sussex]

I know its the 06Z but my word what is going on here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

Maybe I should keep an open mind for the following week because the 06Z is such a massive change at such an early timeframe.

Yes its miles better than the earlier GFS run so even with that weak high to the east this just shows how some amplification can make a big difference.

It would be good if some energy could cut se into Russia and force a lobe of pressure further west.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Its been posted above....now there's a turn up for the books, No energy pushing NE, no breakdown. Is it onto something or 06z twaddle. Well for me its looking in the right direction. Retrograde signal is strengthening, block to NE to BACK WEST, lets see how the models deal with next week after struggling with Sun/Mon.....I suspect there's some winter ahead of us yet [remember my dates 16-24 Feb re cold]

BFTP

Edited February 9, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[cold snap]

You start to think how much more sleep you will be getting , you start to forget about winter . Oh go on one more set of runs.

6z. Gfs looks like its going to be a epic run .

Give it up models you have being doing this all winter , again on the 6z very little Greenland blocking without the pattern becomes homes once we get into the reliable

[Methuselah]

That's some eastward-bias, is that: only 2000 miles' short of 360 degrees! Amazing!

[cold snap]

Sorry but where did this run come from , now gfs don't be silly and throw in Greenland blocking now

And the funny thing is this now at 144 astonishing

Edited February 9, 2013 by cold snap

[snowmadchrisuk]

Can't remember a time we have seen such a dramatic change , in the first +144 hours . The best Cold and Snow always happen when the charts suddenly change in the 7 day period.

[winterof79]

http://modeles.meteo...snh-0-174.png?6

V Similar to this http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-210.png?18

Edited February 9, 2013 by winterof79

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

That's some eastward-bias, is that: only 2000 miles' short of 360 degrees! Amazing!

Just to throw in, do we know the other solutions at t120 on re pushing the energy through have been right?....no we don't

BFTP

[johnholmes]

my brief look at short term and longer term prospects

[Djdazzle]

6z ensembles will be very interesting. Surely the GFS can't be onto something?

[SLEETY]

Today's runs are going to be vital regarding sundays potential snowfall.

Overnight runs bring the south east into play with possible snow showers or streamers following on going by the chart ryan posted.

Be very interesting to hear Ian F views in terms of what the met make of the overnight runs.

Going to be glued to this place all day now i feel.

Yeah be interesting to hear the met view on what caused the dramatic change in the path of the low overnight,and do they think they place too much faith on their computer models?

[Ian Brown]

Not surprised to the 06z show that. I see the ECM did push the LP SE on it's morning run after JH dismissed my comment on why I thought it's 12z was wrong last night. All to play for.

[Great Plum]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.png

1060mb high over Greenland? I love gfs FI!

[johnholmes]

Yeah be interesting to hear the met view on what caused the dramatic change in the path of the low overnight,and do they think they place too much faith on their computer models?

dramatic??

really

ok I presume you are referring to the 06Z?

Edited February 9, 2013 by johnholmes

[Snowman.]

Wow

Edited February 9, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Snowman.]

The atlantic is so dead that the low moves west.

Ahaa!

[Froze were the Days]

Hasn't anybody learnt anything? the 06z output is a huge cold outlier and has been throwing in these 'rogue' runs the last couple of weeks only to completely drop them.

It has to be said the modelling in these blocking situations has been nothing short of pathetic this winter and continues to be so - I really don't know which model at the moment will be more accurate in the short and medium term, lord knows what will happen on Sunday/Monday.

[winterof79]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2641.png

1060mb high over Greenland? I love gfs FI!

Ties in nicely with METO musings of a colder further outlook.

[Jason M]

Although the changes look big on the GFS this run is fairly typical of many ensemble runs over the last few days. We still lack the deep cold to drive convection but there is a good chance for some deeper cold out towards the last third of the month.

Not looked at the ensembles yet, but would be surprised if it doesn't have a fair amount of support.

Jason

[Djdazzle]

Hasn't anybody learnt anything? the 06z output is a huge cold outlier and has been throwing in these 'rogue' runs the last couple of weeks only to completely drop them.

It has to be said the modelling in these blocking situations has been nothing short of pathetic this winter and continues to be so - I really don't know which model at the moment will be more accurate in the short and medium term, lord knows what will happen on Sunday/Monday.

OK, but it doesn't mean that this run is a cold outlier, even though it probably will be.

[winterof79]

Hasn't anybody learnt anything? the 06z output is a huge cold outlier and has been throwing in these 'rogue' runs the last couple of weeks only to completely drop them.

It has to be said the modelling in these blocking situations has been nothing short of pathetic this winter and continues to be so - I really don't know which model at the moment will be more accurate in the short and medium term, lord knows what will happen on Sunday/Monday.

I cannot recall a run like this.Could you elaborate a little.Ta

[Methuselah]

The models are struggling, along with the humans...I wonder if the models blame the humans like the humans blame the models, when things don't 'evolve' as expected?

[Frosty.]

Well the Gfs 06z has pulled a rabbit out of the hat there, heading towards an Epic run for cold synoptics bordering on wonderful and it shows the cold block to the north/east really flexing it's muscles and having a real scrap with the atlantic depression next midweek, to such an extent that the low throws in the towel eventually and disrupts over the uk with more undercut, the northeast of the uk would have a blizzard and SEly gales as the atlantic furiously tries to bring milder air across but it fails and the cold block wins and gains super strength and FI is very blocked and very cold with severe frosts and threats of snow at times, a wonderful tonic compared to the gfs 00z and ecm 00z which are poor in comparison, and the ukmo 00z.

It's the type of run that BFTP/RJS will love because it shows retrogression and winter wonderland synoptics in FI, cold outlier but it's the best gfs run I have seen for ages.

Edited February 9, 2013 by Frosty039

[Captain Shortwave]

The models are struggling, along with the humans...I wonder if the models blame the humans like the humans blame the models, when things don't 'evolve' as expected?

They probably throw their toys out of the pram when they see the viewing figures for the X-Factor

I can't see why this evolution isn't as viable as the others. I can't see that much energy coming across at us from the US as all the runs showed this morning. Vortex draining out of Canada and yet the atlantic continues on its merry way?? I really don't think it will happen like that. But maybe I've just gone mad

Edited February 9, 2013 by Captain shortwave