Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Somerset Squall

Intense Tropical Cyclone Felleng

Recommended Posts

Tropical Cyclone 13S has formed, several hundred miles east of northern Madagascar. Winds are currently at 35kts. The cyclone has developed in a marginally favourable environment of warm sea temps, fair poleward outflow but moderate to high shear. These conditions are expected to remain similar over the next couple of days, so 13S will find it difficult to strengthen significantly in this time frame. Thereafter, shear is expected to ease, allowing for greater intensification. The cyclone is heading westwards currently along the northern side of a steering ridge to the south. In about 4 days time, 13S should reach the western extent of the ridge and turn southwestwards. At this point, 13S will be in a favourable environment for strengthening and will be very close to northeast Madagascar, so we will need to keep an eye on this cyclone.

sh1313.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

13S has moved westwards over the last couple of days, without much development. However, the storm now seems like it is strengthening in response to reduced shear and strong outflow. Intensity has risen to 40kts, and the cyclone has been named Felleng. Felleng, in latest satellite imagery, has much more expansive convection and increased convective banding, signs of a maturing system. Felleng is expected to continue heading westwards along the north side of a ridge for the next couple of days followed by a turn to the south just east of Madagascar as Felleng reaches the western periphery of the steering ridge. Felleng is likely to bring very heavy rains to the east coast of Madagascar, but if the southward turn happens too late, then Felleng may make landfall- and the cyclone is expected to become intense. Both JTWC and MeteoFrance agree on a turn south just off the coast however.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Felleng is looking much more impressive this evening. Sustained winds are now at 55kts. The cyclone has expanding convection and curved banding features. Won't be long before an eye develops IMO. The conditions are certainly very favourable currently, with low shear and excellent outflow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Felleng has strengthened further overnight, and sustained winds are now at 65kts, a cat 1 hurricane equivalent on the SS scale. An eye has developed in the central dense overcast feature- which is pretty circular (indicative of very low shear). The eye is not all that well defined currently, but I would be surprised if that remains the case for long. The environment supports further intensification, perhaps rapid.

Felleng is about 12 hours away from making the southward turn. The turn is expected to be quite sharp as the ridge to the south re-orientates north to south to Felleng's east.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Felleng has rapidly intensified this afternoon. Winds are now 90kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. JTWC now expect Felleng to peak at 115kts (cat 4).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Felleng has further intensified and has been upgraded to an Intense Tropical Cyclone by MeteoFrance. Sustained winds are now 105kts, cat 3 on SS scale. The eye is large, but well defined. Felleng has about another 24hrs to strengthen further before outflow weakens and shear starts to slowly rise.. Rainbands from Felleng could affect La Reunion, despite Felleng being forecast to slide southwards midway between Madagascar and La Reunion., keeping the strongest winds and heaviest rains away from land..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Felleng peaked at 115kts, cat 4 on the SS scale, shortly after I last posted. Felleng only held that intensity for 6 hours as shear increased as caused Felleng to weaken. Intensity has been in decline ever since, and is now at 70kts. For now, waters are warm, but as Felleng continues to slip southwards, cooler sea surface temperatures will join shear in weakening Felleng at a quicker pace.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Felleng continues to quickly move southeastwards and has almost finished the transition to an extratropical storm. JTWC have issued their last advisory.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Similar Content

    • By Somerset Squall
      A late season tropical storm formed in the early hours in the central-western portion of the Southern Indian Ocean basin, 400 miles south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Fantala has since rapidly strengthened and has winds of 60kts according to JTWC. Further quick strengthening is expected as the storm heads westwards. It is unclear just where Fantala will end up, but Madagascar need to be wary of it, even though the country is not in the immediate firing line.
       

    • By Somerset Squall
      Another tropical cyclone has formed in the South Indian Ocean, in the east of the basin. Uriah formed yesterday, west of Cocos Island, in Australia's area of responsibility, hence it was named by them. Winds are at 45kts according to JTWC. Uriah is forecast to head west-southwest over the coming days and continue to strengthen as shear is low and waters plenty warm. Thereafter, a southward bend in track is predicted as Uriah rounds the western side of the steering ridge. This will force Uriah over cooler waters by day 5, inducing weakening. JTWC are forecasting Uriah to peak at cat 2 hurricane strength.
       
      Uriah will cross 90E and into MeteoFrance's area of responsibility later today. Uriah should not affect land.
    • By Somerset Squall
      After another lull in activity, the next named storm of the season has formed, off the southeast coast of Madagascar. Daya has winds of 35kts. The storm has well developed banding and some moderately deep convection over the LLCC. Due to it's fairly high latitude, Daya is not far from cooler waters, so the window for strengthening is small. JTWC expect a peak of 50kts before Daya slips southeast out of the tropics.
       

       
       
    • By Somerset Squall
      The south indian ocean has awoken from it's slumber with a new tropical storm, named Corentin, located in the central south indian ocean, about 500 miles south of Diego Garcia. Winds are at 35kts. Strengthening is expected, as shear is set to ease, and waters are warm along track. Corentin's peak is expected to be 90kts according to JTWC, before Corentin slips south into cooler water and increased shear with the increasing lattitude. Corentin is not expected to affect land.
       

    • By Somerset Squall
      The first tropcial cyclone of the South Indian Ocean cyclone season 2015-16 has formed about 175 miles south-southwest of Diego Garcia. The system has winds of 35kts according to JTWC, and is characterised by a well defined circulation and good convective banding. Strengthening is expected over the next few days, as outflow remains very good and waters warm in this time. Thereafter, as 03S slips southeast, it'll move over cooler waters and increased shear, inducing weakening.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×