Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Somerset Squall

Tropical Cyclone Peta

Recommended Posts

Tropical Cyclone 12S has formed just off the Pilbara coast of NW Australia, and is located northwest of Port Hedland and northeast of Karratha. Intensity is 30kts. The cyclone has a modest amount of deep convection near the LLC. 12S is expected to strengthen a little over the next 24hrs before land interaction on the west-southwesterly track causes the cyclone to weaken again. As 12S weakens and emerges over water again, shear is expected to rise, meaning 12S will not recover long term and instead dissipate over the southeast Indian Ocean.

sh1213.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12S has become Tropical Cyclone Peta overnight, with sustained winds now at 35kts. Peta has a central dense overcast feature and more pronounced banding features this morning. The cyclone has dipped southwestwards and is making landfall east of Karratha this morning, so further strengthening is unlikely, especially as shear will rise over Peta when it emerges back over waters. Heavy rains are the primary concern from Peta.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Similar Content

    • By Somerset Squall
      The first tropical cyclone to form in the Australian area of responsibility has formed off the coast of NW Australia. Stan has winds of 45kts according to JTWC. The storm has deep, centralised convection and well developed banding features. Outflow is excellent, which is reducing the impact of moderate shear in the area. Landfall is expected on the Pilbara coast in about 36hrs, could be a hurricane strength system at landfall if the current rate of intensification continues.
       

    • By Somerset Squall
      A late season tropical cyclone appears to be developing well north of Learmonth, Australia. It is expected to strengthen initially then move southeast towards the NW Australian coast. Higher shear should weaken the system before it potentially reaches the coast. I'll have a fuller update later.

    • By Somerset Squall
      At last! We finally have a tropical cyclone on the NW side of Australia. TC Olwyn has formed north of the Pilbara coastline, with winds of 35kts. Olwyn has some moderately deep convection directly over the LLCC, and good banding features. Shear is low and waters warm, so time before landfall is the only inhibiting factor for intensification. That being said, BOM are forecasting a category 2 system on the Australian scale, making landfall between Onslow and Exmouth.


    • By Somerset Squall
      A tropical low has formed in the Josef Bonaparte Gulf, west of the Top End. Convection is increasing over a developing LLCC. The low is heading towards the coast and should make landfall east of Kulumburu in a little over 12hrs time. BOM forecast the low to become a tropical cyclone before this occurs. JTWC assess the chances of TC development as MEDIUM. BOM then forecast 04U to head westwards as ridging builds to the south. Over land, 04U will lose TC status (if it gains it in the first place) but then move back over the warm waters of the southeast Indian Ocean, where redevelopment should occur. It should be noted that some models are indicating quite an intense cyclone moving down the northwest Australian coast as we head towards the New Year.
       

    • By Somerset Squall
      A tropical low is has developed a few hundred miles north of Cocos Island. The low, also known as invest 94S, is moving southwestwards, north of Cocos Island. The system is currently being affected by shear, and is currently quite broad natured, but the shear should ease as the low continues southwestwards, allowing development. BOM expects the system to become a tropical cyclone within the next 24hrs, and JTWC assess this risk as a MEDIUM risk. The cyclone should then move out of the Australian region of responsibility and into MeteoFrance's area of responsibility in the Southwest Indian Ocean in around 48hrs time, whilst continuing to intensify.
       

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×