The Midlands Regional Discussion 22/01/13 16z ----->

[shaky]

Don't say I didn't predict so

"I would expect MetO warnings to be updated towards late afternoon as certainty increases to the point where it is pretty likely to be the right outcome. If they think it will be majority snow, I would personally expect amber warnings for much of the country, potentially everywhere apart from coastal area from Milton Keynes north to Glasgow, that would be my guess."

Pretty much what has happened

MetO have Leicester down for heavy snow 6pm and 9pm too.

Yeh i think we might see an upgrade on the 12z but remember we need that shortwave back across wales and the midlands rather than across northern england!!that will help keep the snow falling for longer!!

[kmanmx]

Yeh i think we might see an upgrade on the 12z but remember we need that shortwave back across wales and the midlands rather than across northern england!!that will help keep the snow falling for longer!!

It's interesting to know on the details of this latest amber warning that there is no mention of snow turning to rain, and on the likelihood/impact matrix it's got a tick in the likely box.

Judging from what i've seen from the model outputs, it looks more marginal than the MetO seem to be predicting. I guess they know more than we do.

[MKN]

If it doesn't turn to rain I'd expect more in the region of 15cms before a thaw sets in by daylight sat.

[kmanmx]

If it doesn't turn to rain I'd expect more in the region of 15cms before a thaw sets in by daylight sat.

Me too. NAE is predicting double the amounts of GFS.

[Snowangel-MK]

Amber Warning of Snow for East Midlands :

Derby, Derbyshire, Leicester, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire & Rutland

Valid from: 1100 on Fri 25 Jan 2013

Valid to: 0200 on Sat 26 Jan 2013

Further snowfall will spread from the west, as another weather front moves eastwards across the UK. Snow will reach parts of Scotland during Friday morning, and eastern parts of England during the late evening, likely to clear these eastern areas by the early hours of Saturday. 4 to 8 cm is likely quite widely within the amber warning area, with a low risk of more than 10 cm locally even on lower ground. Further north, accumulations of 10 to 20 cm may occur in some upland areas. Strong winds will also lead to drifting and blizzard-like conditions, particularly over higher level roads in the north.

Issued at: 1233 on Thu 24 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=em&from=rss&sn=CF997B34-2D50-67DF-F8D5-6C7264160BC3_1_EM&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=7&lon=-0.39&lat=52.71&fcTime=1358942460

[Ryan05]

Tomorrows potential snow event reminds me of my childhood where you could get a lot of snow but then 24 hours later it was all gone.

We could have a similar scenario this weekend, heavy snow into Friday night, still around saturday for some fun but all gone by sunday

Edited January 24, 2013 by Ryan05

[shaky]

Nae about to come out!!a westward shift would do me please!!tension mounting!!😓

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Amber Warning of Snow for East Midlands :

Derby, Derbyshire, Leicester, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire & Rutland

Valid from: 1100 on Fri 25 Jan 2013

Valid to: 0200 on Sat 26 Jan 2013

Further snowfall will spread from the west, as another weather front moves eastwards across the UK. Snow will reach parts of Scotland during Friday morning, and eastern parts of England during the late evening, likely to clear these eastern areas by the early hours of Saturday. 4 to 8 cm is likely quite widely within the amber warning area, with a low risk of more than 10 cm locally even on lower ground. Further north, accumulations of 10 to 20 cm may occur in some upland areas. Strong winds will also lead to drifting and blizzard-like conditions, particularly over higher level roads in the north.

Issued at: 1233 on Thu 24 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice...Time=1358942460

Aha, that's music to my ears

[shaky]

Any news on the nae!!

[kmanmx]

Any news on the nae!!

You can view it yourself... http://www.weatheron...S=0&WMO==

Pretty similar to 06z. Still a lot of snow for our area. 15 to 20mm for midlands. That is roughly 15 to 20cm of snow. In theory. UKMO and GFS predict half these amounts, though.

Still it is very marginal. Marginal events can be great, and lead to very big flakes and lots of snow. Alternatively, it could just as easily rain and sleet all evening.

Edited January 24, 2013 by kmanmx

[Blackjack10]

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/24/basis12/ukuk/prty/13012600_2_2412.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/24/basis12/ukuk/prty/13012606_2_2412.gif

Looking pretty good for tomorrow night?

[kmanmx]

Yep I think so. Should be a good amount of snow before the rain washes it away

[shaky]

Excellent nae pushes that shortwave back south again across the midlands!!well now am beginning to think we could actually get an all snow event tomorrow night and maybe up to 15cms!!

[Blackjack10]

Yeah, although wouldn't be surprised if Loughborough has another shocker. Seems like places just to the south (Leicester) have faired much better in terms of snow depths!

Latest GFS going for an all rain event...

[kmanmx]

Yeah, although wouldn't be surprised if Loughborough has another shocker. Seems like places just to the south (Leicester) have faired much better in terms of snow depths!

Latest GFS going for an all rain event...

All rain seems unlikely. With 1c temps and precipitation as heavy as it is, evaporative cooling should turn some of it to snow, and thats assuming it isn't already.

Sometimes I get the impression that GFS thinks snow is impossible above freezing.

[shaky]

Wooo just taken a look at the gfs what the hell!!no snow at all!!this is going down to the wire!

[kmanmx]

Wooo just taken a look at the gfs what the hell!!no snow at all!!this is going down to the wire!

Met office have warning for snow. NAE has snow. NMM has snow.

I'd almost ignore the GFS. I'm not saying we won't see rain, but the entire lot as rain seems ridiculous.

[Blackjack10]

Met office have warning for snow. NAE has snow. NMM has snow.

I'd almost ignore the GFS. I'm not saying we won't see rain, but the entire lot as rain seems ridiculous.

Need those dew points to stay low, and hope the cold air temps will work in our favour I guess!

[Downpour]

Aha, that's music to my ears

I'd be more inclined to trust the UKMO, who have got pretty much everything in this cold spell bang on, than GFS, which has been a joke at times. On my way up from London to Leics tomorrow evening to see my folks. On the train - should just squeak home before the heavy stuff piles up. Think Saturday morning will be fun in the snow before a rapid thaw sets in later in the day. Great way to end what has been an epic cold spell for London and eastern regions.

Wooo just taken a look at the gfs what the hell!!no snow at all!!this is going down to the wire!

Think it will be an all snow event in your region - thaw Sat night/sunday.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Downpour

[shaky]

Dew points are absolutely perfect at around -1 or -2 all the way through!!even after looking at the ukmo model its looks identical to the nae!!gfs might have a bit of egg on its face to be honest!

Met office have warning for snow. NAE has snow. NMM has snow.

I'd almost ignore the GFS. I'm not saying we won't see rain, but the entire lot as rain seems ridiculous.

Is that the nmm 12z your on about!

[SL7]

Eh, iPhone weather app has changed from showing snow on Friday to it just being cloudy. Not even rain.

Rather bizarre.

I believe the source the app uses is Yahoo.

Can any recommend a better weather app please?

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I'd be more inclined to trust the UKMO, who have got pretty much everything in this cold spell bang on, than GFS, which has been a joke at times. On my way up from London to Leics tomorrow evening to see my folks. On the train - should just squeak home before the heavy stuff piles up. Think Saturday morning will be fun in the snow before a rapid thaw sets in later in the day. Great way to end what has been an epic cold spell for London and eastern regions.

Think it will be an all snow event in your region - thaw Sat night/sunday.

My Folks live on the Nottingham / Leciester boarder and I think this Winter Leicester hasn't fared to badly, which definitely makes a change. I remember too many years throughout the mid nighties and noughties where the winters were just awful, we'd be lucky to see a frost let alone a good snow fall - i'd be green with envy of those living up North who always seemed to get it. Good to see all the East Mids doing a bit better of late and I hope to be spending Saturday morning in my camo hide, knee deep in snow, trying to photograph some wildlife before it all thaws away. Drive safe and I hope we all get a good old dumping!

[kmanmx]

Eh, iPhone weather app has changed from showing snow on Friday to it just being cloudy. Not even rain.

Rather bizarre.

I believe the source the app uses is Yahoo.

Can any recommend a better weather app please?

Meteogroups app

[Downpour]

Eh, iPhone weather app has changed from showing snow on Friday to it just being cloudy. Not even rain.

Rather bizarre.

I believe the source the app uses is Yahoo.

Can any recommend a better weather app please?

Weather Pro is excellent. Shows dew points, pressure and has a radar. Not dumbed down at all. Most of the mainstream apps are dire for winter forecasting.

Meteogroups app

That's WeatherPro - yes, it's quality.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Downpour

[Downpour]

My Folks live on the Nottingham / Leciester boarder and I think this Winter Leicester hasn't fared to badly, which definitely makes a change. I remember too many years throughout the mid nighties and noughties where the winters were just awful, we'd be lucky to see a frost let alone a good snow fall - i'd be green with envy of those living up North who always seemed to get it. Good to see all the East Mids doing a bit better of late and I hope to be spending Saturday morning in my camo hide, knee deep in snow, trying to photograph some wildlife before it all thaws away. Drive safe and I hope we all get a good old dumping!

Thankfully (I think?) I'm catching the train. Wouldn't fancy the M1 on a Friday night at the best of times, never mind if the forecast is right!