South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 22/01/13 00z------------->

[Dunlop Dave]

Rain in Guernsey !!

[Ashme]

ppn seems to have stooled on the front and bunching up!!!

[Panayiotis]

There have been some reports of a drop in temp as the ppn approaches - I would expect Cardiff and Bristol to be snow - we've already had snow showers earlier and temp and dew points are down from then. Maybe the uppers not quite cold enough - certainly looks all snow over Exmoor:

Thanks for including my area Kumquat, because you have said that I hope you get snow too!

[kumquat]

Rain in Guernsey !!

Did you get anything Friday Dave? Was in Guernsey last summer!

[kumquat]

ppn pepping up on the right hand side of the band going back into channel islands - is this supposed to wrap around as the low spins?

[Lincstim]

Hey there. Is there something building around the Birmingham area that is appearing on radar? It seems to be heading in the region of lincs and east yorks.

Also that area of ppn in the south west. Is that to stay down in that neck of the woods or head north or north east?

[Mark -W-s-M]

Nothing here in weston super mare yet although the wind is starting to pick up a little.

[kumquat]

Hi Lincstim - I noticed that ppn on the radar "Growing" out of nowhere on the radar over Birmingham! The SW stuff isn't supposed to go too far north but what we are seeing now isn't what was forecast. The models were all showing different for this event down here and this ppn is way ahead of schedule. Here's Ian F's last tweet that highlights the uncertainty even from the Met O:

Latest from Ian on twitter Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY One last tweet: given showery precipitation is already nearly at Chard up to Taunton, frankly ANYTHING could now happen overnight! also followed by latest mod frames already some way off-base even at 00z. Nowcast gig all-round hereon in...tricky one for the Exeter folk.

[BristolBlizzard]

Hi Lincstim - I noticed that ppn on the radar "Growing" out of nowhere on the radar over Birmingham! The SW stuff isn't supposed to go too far north but what we are seeing now isn't what was forecast. The models were all showing different for this event down here and this ppn is way ahead of schedule. Here's Ian F's last tweet that highlights the uncertainty even from the Met O:

Hey Kumquat,

Am I right in saying that this band of PPN approaching from the SW is supposed to stall and then pivot? Before heading south again? It seems that the precip is a little more NE than expected, putting us in a very good position I would have thought?

[offerman]

Im bloody knackered and thought about going to sleep but with the front now so close to frome i just want to see one massive deluge within 20minute window.

[Dean E]

This is way ahead of schedule in the SW. New Cell firing up SE of Plymouth, watch out Dartmoor

SM

[Lincstim]

Well here's hoping your areas get what you want from this front. And then please pass it our way

It just seems to be on a similar path to that ppn (that's appearing our of thin air which I really don't understand as this is all very new to me) over the brum area. It also seems to be moving at a fast speed !!!

Edited January 22, 2013 by Lincstim

[Panayiotis]

Well here's hoping your areas get what you want from this front. And then please pass it our way

It just seems to be on a similar path to that ppn (that's appearing our of thin air which I really don't understand as this is all very new to me) over the brum area. It also seems to be moving at a fast speed !!!

I dont think its going to reach that far north, Im afraid.

[Lincstim]

No I really don't either! I'm just more bemused about that area around brum appearing out of nowhere. How does this occur I'm very new to looking at weather

[kumquat]

Hey Kumquat,

Am I right in saying that this band of PPN approaching from the SW is supposed to stall and then pivot? Before heading south again? It seems that the precip is a little more NE than expected, putting us in a very good position I would have thought?

Not sure BB I don't think things were progged to move in this fast so I'm not sure if it's a Brucy Bonus before tomorrow's "event" or what? I don't think there's very much clarity at all on this one!. May get a nice dusting out of it in our neck of the woods quite soon though!

[Panayiotis]

Raining here now, mixed in with some flakes hope it turns to snow later!

[BristolBlizzard]

Not sure BB I don't think things were progged to move in this fast so I'm not sure if it's a Brucy Bonus before tomorrow's "event" or what? I don't think there's very much clarity at all on this one!. May get a nice dusting out of it in our neck of the woods quite soon though!

Would be brilliant if this was just a nice little taster before the main stuff arrives. Yeah not far away now, potential for a few cm's

[offerman]

Weird, radar has snow over frome but nothing falling from the sky.

[kumquat]

ppn intensifying as it approaches Bristol - Seems to be drawing energy off the Bristol Channel

[Bonjangle]

Snowing here in south wales

[BristolBlizzard]

MetO have snow for the West Country between 6pm Tuesday (tonight) until Midday Wednesday. This was updated an hour ago.

To be taken with a pinch of salt but it's a good sign.

[Mark -W-s-M]

Sky looks a snowy colour here though nothing falling yet.

[kumquat]

Sky looks a snowy colour here though nothing falling yet.

Surprised Mark, looks like it's right over you!

[Frosty_wsm]

Heavy rain/sleet here, more rain than sleet!

[Mark -W-s-M]

Just popped head out the door got moderate sleet coming down but this is how it started to come down last friday so here's hoping it turns to snow .