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ajpoolshark

South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 20/01/13 10z------------->

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Can't see the precip getting further west than Southampton now, looking at the Radar. (on the coast that is) made for fun watching tho

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Note to Polarbear - I live around 5 miles from chichester and there is nothing light about the snow! its by no means Fridays heavyness but its coming down nicely. Im now in the car down past portsmouth and its still fairly heavy snow. Think the PPN is far further west and heavier than was expected.

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Just going to requote this in here from the previous thread. good.gif

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From Ian;

W COUNTRY SUN Further patchy light snow likely in some areas, more especially in E'rnmost districts (Wilts-Glos) where local 1-2cm possible

W COUNTRY Major regional uncertainty characterises Mon-Tues. Forecast models struggling with small-scale developments in SW & any poss snow.

W COUNTRY Safest option currently is thus to lean towards precautionary approach. Some snow possible (effectively anywhere) Mon-Tues-Weds.

Ha ha, I must have read Ian Fs mind. tease.gif Travel plans will not go to plan this week, that is for sure. Prepare for the media to scrutinise every MetO, official and unofficial weather man and woman and ask them of their thoughts. Evil snow mega_shok.gif , nah its lovely snow air_kiss.gif to my eyes, however, the snow will cause much inconvenience over the coming week. help.gif

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Come on Portsmouth and Southampton peeps! All go outside and blow really hard and we might get it here in Bournemouth!!!

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Still snowing light and steady here in frome. The stuff out east getting tantalisingly close in the forecast frames, Frome ill post another screenshot of my app in next 1/2hr or so.

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Light snow here in Newbury as already mentioned. Low temps and dew points indicate that it will all be snow today and plenty more light snow to come I estimate 1-3cm the farther east you are the more is expected.

I popped into the London and South East thread earlier and places in east Kent had already had about 3cm

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Also this copied from the other thread, courtesy of AWD.

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Interesting;

post-12721-0-46666500-1358676284_thumb.jpg

Now I know thus shows rain for Somerset, Dorset and the South Coast but this is at 48 hours so future runs can improve on this. But that's some moderately heavy snow for Gloucestershire and Wiltshire, plus notice the mass of snow in the Atlantic. Mmmmmm........

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This coming courtesy of Iceberg, also copied from the previous thread.clap.gif

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A small ridge looks as if its developed stronger than the models anticipated, this is shown by higher pressure and the isobars having a more north south bend and less an east west bend. The effect will be drag the precip further west and push it further west once it has developed.

The 06s still have not picked up on this.

We don't know how long this will last though could be an hr could be 4-5 hrs. Precip could hit Salisbury or maybe even further west..

Sorry done on phone so changed a few bits

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Also this copied from the other thread, courtesy of AWD.looks interesting for us in Cornwall. But as our luck has been so poor so far I bit it just slips away .

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Interesting;

post-12721-0-46666500-1358676284_thumb.jpg

Now I know thus shows rain for Somerset, Dorset and the South Coast but this is at 48 hours so future runs can improve on this. But that's some moderately heavy snow for Gloucestershire and Wiltshire, plus notice the mass of snow in the Atlantic. Mmmmmm........

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Interesting differences between Meto and NW forecasts for the coming week. Meto keeps N Dorset down around freezing point (daytime) whereas NW shows temps up top 6 or 8C.

The past two days have been remarkable in that the temp has really not varied much (-1 to +1) with the very slightest thaw going on during the day.

The old lore would say that the snow is 'waiting for more' and my suspicion is that this is what we shall see, more and deeper cold in the next shot and marginal breakdown in between.

Whatever happens for now 2013 will class as a 'better Dorset winter' for me with three good days tobogganing being my measure! These tend to come only once in 5 years.

Some of the youngsters are surprised (and amused!) that some of us older folk still like to thunder downhill and that our greater body mass makes for higher speeds when the slopes are smooth and icy!

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the trend i see from the Model Runs is this cold weather does not want to go anywhere in the reliable time frame, each run seems to keep the cold in for longer. although the LP in the Atlantic at +162 is impressive, pressure of 930, that would be some storm lol

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06 NAE a right mess, could snow anywhere at any time over the next few days, cool! Although 48 hours has a little more organised system coming in as pointed out above.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

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And one last repeat from the other thread from me. cold.gif

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http://www.metoffice...ry#?tab=fiveDay

BANK. IMBY. Another 9 hours of light snow to come I guess.

Currently snowing lightly, -1.7c AT, -2.4c DP, 996mb steady barometer trend, winds 10min avg 5mph from the NE.

A very tricky forecast for the week for the MetO this week. The cold pool is going nowhere fast in general and I don't expect much thawing of SNOW cover in my neighbourhood over the next four to five days. good.gif

Try your own location on the above link for your five day forecast from the Pros. acute.gif

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Anyone spotted the B channel Streamer? into minehead.

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Still snowing light and steady here in frome. The stuff out east getting tantalisingly close in the forecast frames, Frome ill post another screenshot of my app in next 1/2hr or so.

Thanks for your post in the last thread about the weather app - found it now!

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Also this copied from the other thread, courtesy of AWD.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Interesting;

post-12721-0-46666500-1358676284_thumb.jpg

Now I know thus shows rain for Somerset, Dorset and the South Coast but this is at 48 hours so future runs can improve on this. But that's some moderately heavy snow for Gloucestershire and Wiltshire, plus notice the mass of snow in the Atlantic. Mmmmmm........

yes indeed looks like a fair bit of cold uppers in the alantic this far south.

got woken by my daughter this morning snowing looked out the window and indeed snowing to be honest i was more sceptical about todays snow and tomorrows ect ect.

but if i stay sceptical then it might keep coming lol.

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Note to Polarbear - I live around 5 miles from chichester and there is nothing light about the snow! its by no means Fridays heavyness but its coming down nicely. Im now in the car down past portsmouth and its still fairly heavy snow. Think the PPN is far further west and heavier than was expected.

thanks eded. Good to know so I can keep an eye for my parents.. From using this thread and keeping an eye on developments I did do their shopping online for them and bought some gritting salt! So they are prepared.:) thank you nw!

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Anyone spotted the B channel Streamer? into minehead.

I noticed this earlier!

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The UKMO continues to suggest the risk of some noticeable snowfall IMO too;

post-12721-0-41211200-1358677657_thumb.jpost-12721-0-27520300-1358677664_thumb.j

Now this could be rain for southern costal counties and the far south west due to an Atlantic influence of less cold air, but its still looking like snow for inland and northern counties of the region;

post-12721-0-43229100-1358677758_thumb.jpost-12721-0-84940200-1358677765_thumb.j

You can see below, the winds back south easterly again;

post-12721-0-99813300-1358677800_thumb.jpost-12721-0-79335400-1358677808_thumb.j

Some interesting signs IMO for the next few days. Don't take each model run literally, as Ian has said on twitter, the models are having a tough time getting detail right on little features. I think some areas could have a surprise or two over the next 72 hours, the signs are there.

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With all the talk of snow father east, the occlusion coming into the far southwest tonight appears to be slipping under the radar somewhat. Unlike on Friday when temps were between 6-9c in the far southwest, values are now close to 0c, so as the moisture bumps into this during the evening an overnight period parts of Cornwall that have so far missed out could be in for a bit of a surprise. Whether you view snow or freezing rain as a pleasant or unpleasant surprise is of course down to the individual, but I can foresee some problems in that neck of the woods tomorrow morning unless the moisture fails to get in at all....which currently looks unlikely.

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Oh, and light snow in Bristol now. Can see it settle on my car.

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Just going to requote this in here from the previous thread. good.gif

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Ha ha, I must have read Ian Fs mind. tease.gif Travel plans will not go to plan this week, that is for sure. Prepare for the media to scrutinise every MetO, official and unofficial weather man and woman and ask them of their thoughts. Evil snow mega_shok.gif , nah its lovely snow air_kiss.gif to my eyes, however, the snow will cause much inconvenience over the coming week. help.gif

I'll put this to the test then, traveling the country a good trip to Manchester and back will soon see.

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