Scotland Regional Discussion - Sunday 20th >>

[blitzen]

Just looking at the 06z rolling out, and although precipitation/type looks good for us, those -10 uppers persist in remaining offshore. Those would certainly have taken the marginality out of the equasion for us. As usual, it is going to be a curtain twitcher again! Still, a few more runs to come, so things may improve yet.

[AugustSky]

0.4c/-3.2c/E. Had a few light graupel? showers this morning falling onto a frozen surface. Something not quite right here so far. We appear to have had plenty falling but not really accumulating? Going to be really interesting overnight/Monday I think as to who gets what and where!

Same here Blitzen, we've had so many flurries over the last few days and some proper snow showers, all landing on frozen ground but nothing accumulating. Very strange.

[NUT]

Some "snaw" last night but again not much just like yesterday morning the thinnest cover possible. Hopefully the sun will stay away might preserve it this time (Not that there much to preserve)

[Sunny Leith]

Thanks for that edodfc. It may well be marginal up and down the coastline ... even with all the things you highlighted looking just the right side of good, sea temps are always the one thing we can't do anything about ... its what... 7c water temp out in the North Sea more or less? Anyway I wouldn't care to say where the final snow/rain boundary might be on the coastal fringe, only nowcasting will tell us that.

Joe... from an Embra perpective I think there will be the usual dividing line within the city . Was up at the in-laws at Liberton yesterday and then up at The Braids (sledging with Mrs By-Tor and By-Tor junior). I left a thawing Leith but another two or three hundred feet away from immediate estuary warming/urban heat island, the snow was just great.

Finger in the air for Embra - assuming the basic forecast for snow moving northwards is correct - and that DPs/uppers are as you indicate ... would be for a wet snow event city wide. On the Embra coastal fringe, definitely sleetier. But rapidly as you move southwards back into the less coastal and higher parts of town then lying wet snow. If theres enough intensity for evaporative coooling and coastal DP's dont bleed into the city, then it will accumulate in most parts. And any wet snow accumulation is fine by me !

And Joe is right, if the flow is a bit south of east then that helps slightly in Embra kidding itself on that its a bit inland-ish !

I think slightly better than 60/40 chances in favour of Edinburger Kilters being happy this time tomorrow...

dew point ok

uppers probably ok

2m temp could be doing with being a degree or so cooler but as long as uppers and dew stay well on the favourable side then hopefully ok

Edited January 20, 2013 by by-tor

[edo]

thought would tidy up the steve murr snow snawscale

0- Nothing / Nada / just curtain dust + flies around the outside light (hee haw here)

1- Odd pellet here & there- however we can mentally confirm there are 'flakes' (pishy snizzle)

2- visible light snow falling- not visible to the lampost yet unless you stand underneath & obscure the light (need yer hand over yer napper tae see it snaw)

3- flurry level- makes light blue on the radar & a few flakes seen across the lampost (fannybaws snaw)

4- we can confirm snow falling without staring at the light- Can confirm to friends & loved ones its snowing via text etc (ehm sure its snaw)

5- Status 2- moderate flurry, its fine snow at the moment still- it looks quite hard in terms of snow falling however its not amounting to anything (englandshire snaw)

6- proper flakes falling- you will see them now- the odd flake mixed in with the moderate fine snow (proper snaw snaw noo)

7- transition to normal flakes all complete- moderate snow outside (Independent snaw)

8- 20p flakes going at a steady pace now- accumulating around 0.5cm - 1cm per hour (4 bob snaw)

9- heavy 20p Snow - visibly accumulating + 1cm per hour (4 bob and a highland toffee snaw)

10- entry level heavy snow arriving- 50p flakes fluttering in the 20p flakes.. awaiting the beast...(mental snaw)

11- 50p flakes nearly transitioned over- we can call it heavy settling snow 2cm ++ per hour (pure mental snaw)

12- Very heavy snow inch per hour all 50p flakes (nae skale or work the morn ya dancer snaw)

13- Blizzard- combined with +40 MPH wind- (The dugs bollix snaw)

[GraemeB]

Number 12 please.

[blitzen]

Dewpoints dropping fast here tho' down to -4c now, temps 0.5c. Going by that snawscale EDO, I have got 1,2,3,4 &5! Hailing again!

[Hawesy]

Monitoring goings on from NW England this weekend. A few cms on the ground here. Drive home tomorrow looking dicey. Can't see anything accumulating in the East Neuk though, not with easterly gales, would need -12c uppers for that. For those inland though, looks like game on!

[edo]

Thanks for that edodfc. It may well be marginal up and down the coastline ... even with all the things you highlighted looking just the right side of good, sea temps are always the one thing we can't do anything about ... its what... 7c water temp out in the North Sea more or less? Anyway I wouldn't care to say where the final snow/rain boundary might be on the coastal fringe, only nowcasting will tell us that.

Joe... from an Embra perpective I think there will be the usual dividing line within the city . Was up at the in-laws at Liberton yesterday and then up at The Braids (sledging with Mrs By-Tor and By-Tor junior). I left a thawing Leith but another two or three hundred feet away from immediate estuary warming/urban heat island, the snow was just great.

Finger in the air for Embra - assuming the basic forecast for snow moving northwards is correct - and that DPs/uppers are as you indicate ... would be for a wet snow event city wide. On the Embra coastal fringe, definitely sleetier. But rapidly as you move southwards back into the less coastal and higher parts of town then lying wet snow. If theres enough intensity for evaporative coooling and coastal DP's dont bleed into the city, then it will accumulate in most parts. And any wet snow accumulation is fine by me !

And Joe is right, if the flow is a bit south of east then that helps slightly in Embra kidding itself on that its a bit inland-ish !

I think slightly better than 60/40 chances in favour of Edinburger Kilters being happy this time tomorrow...

great stuff..... i used to have a link for sea temps but cant find it.....be interesting to see where they sit just now compared to average....that was what made Nov 2010 so remarkable aswell was the North Sea would have still been quite warm at that stage of autumn/winter

[edo]

Good morning temp currently -0.2/-4.0

I really hope we all get some Snow from this front later today/tommorow, But I wish we could just have a snow event without worrying all time about the temperture

lol now whaurs the fun in that ALLY...... you were born scottish it is your duty to be put through the mill

[Maitland]

A few wee flurries last night here in Braco. Bitterly cold this morning. Hopefully the U16's Stirling RFC will be on at Bridgehaugh this afternoon. Would hate to miss my rugby.

M...

[blitzen]

With the winds set to increase tonight/overnight, will that be a help or a hinder?

[Northernlights]

Same here Blitzen, we've had so many flurries over the last few days and some proper snow showers, all landing on frozen ground but nothing accumulating. Very strange.

Sublimation? (Melt/Evaporate/Freeze in the very cold and dry continental air) Same is happening here and day by day the the snow cover just seems to evaporate on iron hard frozen ground. I always think its February type weather where the treated roads dry up leaving the white salt behind. Much healthier for man and beast as all bugs are dessicted by the very dry/cold air.

[edo]

With the winds set to increase tonight/overnight, will that be a help or a hinder?

i think hinder for those right on the coast but help those inland as will blow precipitation further in but right on the coast i think although it will feel baltic it can mix warmer air from the sea in

this could well be rubbish so await correction from someone more knowlegable

[blitzen]

Thanks for that EDO. Sounds about right actually. Interesting that the so-called breakdown by the end of the week appears to be a fairy tale at the moment? Models all over the place.

Sublimation? (Melt/Evaporate/Freeze in the very cold and dry continental air) Same is happening here and day by day the the snow cover just seems to evaporate on iron hard frozen ground. I always think its February type weather where the treated roads dry up leaving the white salt behind. Much healthier for man and beast as all bugs are dessicted by the very dry/cold air.

How very interesting NL, I didn't know such a thing existed. Explains a lot.

[Cheggers]

great stuff..... i used to have a link for sea temps but cant find it.....be interesting to see where they sit just now compared to average....that was what made Nov 2010 so remarkable aswell was the North Sea would have still been quite warm at that stage of autumn/winter

A good start if you can't find link

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst2/

[edo]

got potentially 2 hrs of snow coming up from around 11.30 if raintoday is correct but it failed miserably last night so hopefully real echoes today.....if it does the kids are getting dressed pronto and we are going out as will be at work tomorrow so not quite the same opportunity to enjoy if it turns out to be decent

[edo]

Thanks for that EDO. Sounds about right actually. Interesting that the so-called breakdown by the end of the week appears to be a fairy tale at the moment? Models all over the place.

How very interesting NL, I didn't know such a thing existed. Explains a lot.

didnt like the look of the ukmo 120 chart posted earlier but 120 a lifetime away just now.....been concentrating on tonight/tomorrow so not even looked any further yet apart from whats been put up in here....

I like the cut of yer jib though would love a few proper inches snow tomorrow then some deep cold and hard frosts ideally

[GraemeB]

06z GFS would give the M 8 corridor carnage tomorrow morning..

[edo]

A good start if you can't find link

http://www.metoffice...hadobs/hadsst2/

cheers there is a heck of a lot of information available there....can see what i shall be learning about at work this week

[edo]

06z GFS would give the M 8 corridor carnage tomorrow morning..

you couldnt time it better lol 6am on a monday morning when the weather has 167 other hours to chose from although to be fair anytime would also be problematic on a road so busy

[pdiddy]

06z GFS would give the M 8 corridor carnage tomorrow morning..

That just looks like a shark to me. Anyway, snow in Edinburgh often seems to surprise the MetO and other models... I think we will do better here (i'm away on the south side up the hill a bit)

[Cheggers]

Ochils this morning. Excuse the panoramic one, still learning.

[skyeblue]

06z GFS would give the M 8 corridor carnage tomorrow morning..

turn that chart upside down. Looks like a ghost

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Snawman.

Also something that started as a snawbunny, then maybe a snawdog-bunny crossbreed, before finally being deemed a snawseal.

Note extensive aesthetic damage tae snaw. Hoping NAE charts come off tae repair this.